Author’s Reply

A technique is developed to compute precision requirements for component parts of an emissions inventory to ensure (at a given confidence level) an overall acceptable precision in the estimate of total emissions. Since the emissions inventory is a basic requirement of air quality control implementation plans and provides a valuable management tool for planning air pollution control activities, it isi appropriate to state in quantitative terms the confidence that can be associated with each inventory. The approach reported here uses weighted sensitivity analysis methods to distribute both percentage and physical errors in source class emissions according to their contribution to the total emissions, and utilizes Chebyshev’s inequality to establish confidence levels for total emissions. The analysis has been extended to cover the case where one or more of the error components in a given inventory source class can be fixed by the analyst. The utility of the technique is manifold and several practical applications are reported. In particular, it serves to establish percentage error requirements for source categories to satisfy given error bounds for the overall emissions inventory at a given level of statistical confidence. The weighted sensitivity analysis technique possesses a high degree of generality, being applicable to compute component error requirements for any kind of data inventory which exhibits a hierarchical (tree-like) structure, as exemplified by NEDS Emissions Summary Reports. This work should be of interest to air pollution control planners at all levels of government and to anyone responsible for the air pollution portion of environmental impact statements.     

Weekday-Weekend Pollutant Studies of the Los Angeles Basin

Pollutant data from the Los Angeles Basin were analyzed for weekday-weekend differences for the smog months of June through September 1972 and 1973. The pollutants investigated were oxidant, NO, NO₂, total hydrocarbons (HC), CO, and particulates. In order to maintain the diurnal variation, the concentration percentiles were calculated for each weekday and weekend hour.     

Turbulent Plume in a Turbulent Cross Flow: Comparison of Wind Tunnel Tests with Field Observations

Plume rise downwind of a large stationary gas turbine was measured in the field and the conditions were then scaled in the laboratory. For the laboratory, the plume exit conditions, wind velocity and temperature profiles, and wind direction were matched. It was found that for high temperature exhaust, the buoyancy is best matched by calculating a dimensionless density difference. With properly calculated buoyancy length scales, the plume trajectories were compared and were found to agree quite well. The probability distributions of the entrainment constant and the average values of the entrapment constant with downwind distance were compared. The field data showed about 15% greater plume rise. The median entrainment constant was about 10% greater for the lab test and the shape of the probability distribution matched very closely.     

Cyclic Trends in Los Angeles Fine Participates

Noontime visibilities in downtown Los Angeles, averaged over the smog season of June through November, show two cycles of general deterioration and improvement. The improvement since 1962 is confirmed by available high volume filter data and conditions in 1974/75 are at least as good as at anytime since observations were begun in 1933. The decrease in frequency of “rule 57” days suggests that the improvement of the last decade and perhaps the cyclic variation of the past 40 years has been primarily of meteorological origin.     

Variance Design and Air Pollution Control

Confronted with shortages of low sulfur content residual fuel oil and, consequently, faced with the threat of social and economic upheaval, several air pollution control authorities in the Northeastern states were forced to relax hard-won air quality standards during the winter of 1972. The authorities did so by granting variances to their sulfur content standards for residual fuel oil. This paper examines the institutional characteristics of these variance policies from an economic incentive standpoint. After setting up desirable structural criteria for institutional design of such crisis policies, the authors examine the experience of the winter of 1972 and arrive at policy guidelines which recommend themselves for consideration in future periods of fuel oil shortages.     

Workshop on Primary Sulfate Emissions

This article is a summary report on a workshop, Measurement Technology and Characterization of Primary Sulfur Oxides Emission from Combustion Sources, sponsored by the EPA Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory at Research Triangle Park, NC, held in Southern Pines, NC. The objectives of the workshop were: to review and discuss current measurement methods and problem areas for sulfur oxides emission with attention focused on sulfuric acid, sulfates, and sulfur-bearing particulate matter; to review and discuss emission data from various combustion sources operating under different conditions, which include various pollutant controls, fuel composition, excess boiler oxygen, etc.; to delineate and recommend areas in need of research and development effort. Scientists were invited to present the results of their studies on primary sulfate emissions. The 3-day workshop devoted one day to measurement technology, a second to characterization, and a third to critical assessment of the presented papers and development of summary working group reports on each half-day session of the initial 2 days. Thirty-one papers were presented by 29 participants on measurements and characterization. Four working group reports were developed and summarized in the last day. Highlights of the papers and reports are briefly reviewed. Workshop proceedings are available as an EPA publication.     

Canada’s Mobile Sources Air Pollution Control Program

The chemical and optical properties of particle emissions from onroad vehicles were investigated at the Allegheny Tunnel on the Pennsylvania Turnpike during July 1981. The optical results are in agreement with earlier data: (1) in terms of light extinction per km driven, diesel particle emissions are at least an order of magnitude more important than particle emissions from spark-ignition vehicles; (2) for diesel particle emissions, light absorption is about twice as efficient as light scattering. Chemical analyses showed that: (1) 24% of the vehicle aerosol was extractable material, (2) 75% of the total mass was carbon, (3) 55% of the total mass was unextractable (elemental) carbon, and (4) the stoichiometry of the extractable fraction of the diesel particle emissions was C_nH_t.7nN_0.05n , i.e., the extractable material was composed predominantly of alkanes. The results of the chemical analyses allow the calculation of the massspecific light absorption coefficient for the elemental carbon component of the diesel particle emissions, i.e., 10.9 ± 1.8 m²/g (500 nm).