Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling of the Chicago River, Illinois

We present and describe results from a three-dimensional model applied to the Chicago River under a wet weather condition. Chicago River is an integral part of Chicago, the third largest city in United States, for recreational, commercial and industrial purposes. Although the flow in the Chicago River is supposed to be from north to south, the flow acquires a three-dimensional nature at various points in the river. The reasons for the three dimensionality of the flow can be attributed to the dynamic boundary conditions generated by combined sewer overflow (CSO) events during wet weather conditions, as well as the presence of confluences of various branches of the river with creeks and slips. This work presents the hydrodynamic application and validation of a three dimensional numerical model, which was used to simulate the flow in the Chicago River for a period of 8?days in September of 2008, during which the torrential rains in the city of Chicago led to intense CSO events. The numerical model used for the aforementioned exercise is the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) which solves the three dimensional vertically hydrostatic, free surface, turbulence averaged equations of motions for a variable density fluid. The results obtained by the numerical model were validated with the help of stage values obtained from the USGS gauging station [Station No. 05536123] present inside the domain of interest. It was estimated that during the storm September 2008, several billion gallons of water were discharged into Lake Michigan from the Chicago River Controlling Works to prevent city flooding. The 3D model also provides a tool for the management of the waterways, in particular for future analysis of different alternatives being considered to reverse the Chicago River once again with the goal of preventing the passage of invasive species (e.g. Asian carp) towards the Great Lakes.     

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.     

Species diversity reduces parasite infection through cross-generational effects on host abundance

With growing interest in the effects of biodiversity on disease, there is a critical need for studies that empirically identify the mechanisms underlying the diversity-disease relationship. Here, we combined wetland surveys of host community structure with mechanistic experiments involving a multi-host parasite to evaluate competing explanations for the dilution effect. Sampling of 320 wetlands in California indicated that snail host communities were strongly nested, with competent hosts for the trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae predominating in low-richness assemblages and unsuitable hosts increasingly present in more diverse communities. Moreover, competent host density was negatively associated with increases in snail species richness. These patterns in host community assembly support a key prerequisite underlying the dilution effect. Results of multigenerational mesocosm experiments designed to mimic field-observed community assemblages allowed us to evaluate the relative importance of host density and diversity in influencing parasite infection success. Increases in snail species richness (from one to four species) had sharply negative effects on the density of infected hosts (-90% reduction). However, this effect was indirect; competition associated with non-host species led to a 95% reduction in host density (susceptible host regulation), owing primarily to a reduction in host reproduction. Among susceptible hosts, there were no differences in infection prevalence as a function of community structure, indicating a lack of support for a direct effect of diversity on infection (encounter reduction). In monospecific conditions, higher initial host densities increased infection among adult hosts; however, compensatory reproduction in the low-density treatments equalized the final number of infected hosts by the next generation, underscoring the relevance of multigenerational studies in understanding the dilution effect. These findings highlight the role of interspecific competition in mediating the relationship between species richness and parasite infection and emphasize the importance of field-informed experimental research in understanding mechanisms underlying the diversity-disease relationship.     

A universal approach to estimate biomass and carbon stock in tropical forests using generic allometric models

Allometric equations allow aboveground tree biomass and carbon stock to be estimated from tree size. The allometric scaling theory suggests the existence of a universal power-law relationship between tree biomass and tree diameter with a fixed scaling exponent close to 8/3. In addition, generic empirical models, like Chave's or Brown's models, have been proposed for tropical forests in America and Asia. These generic models have been used to estimate forest biomass and carbon worldwide. However, tree allometry depends on environmental and genetic factors that vary from region to region. Consequently, theoretical models that include too few ecological explicative variables or empirical generic models that have been calibrated at particular sites are unlikely to yield accurate tree biomass estimates at other sites. In this study, we based our analysis on a destructive sample of 481 trees in Madagascar spiny dry and moist forests characterized by a high rate of endemism (> 95%). We show that, among the available generic allometric models, Chave's model including diameter, height, and wood specific gravity as explicative variables for a particular forest type (dry, moist, or wet tropical forest) was the only one that gave accurate tree biomass estimates for Madagascar (R2 > 83%, bias < 6%), with estimates comparable to those obtained with regional allometric models. When biomass allometric models are not available for a given forest site, this result shows that a simple height-diameter allometry is needed to accurately estimate biomass and carbon stock from plot inventories.     

Landscape context and scale differentially impact coffee leaf rust, coffee berry borer, and coffee root-knot nematodes

Crop pest and disease incidences at plot scale vary as a result of landscape effects. Two main effects can be distinguished. First, landscape context provides habitats of variable quality for pests, pathogens, and beneficial and vector organisms. Second, the movements of these organisms are dependent on the connectivity status of the landscape. Most of the studies focus on indirect effects of landscape context on pest abundance through their predators and parasitoids, and only a few on direct effects on pests and pathogens. Here we studied three coffee pests and pathogens, with limited or no pressure from host-specific natural enemies, and with widely varying life histories, to test their relationships with landscape context: a fungus, Hemileia vastatrix, causal agent of coffee leaf rust; an insect, the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Coleoptera: Curculionidae); and root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne spp. Their incidence was assessed in 29 coffee plots from Turrialba, Costa Rica. In addition, we characterized the landscape context around these coffee plots in 12 nested circular sectors ranging from 50 to 1500 m in radius. We then performed correlation analysis between proportions of different land uses at different scales and coffee pest and disease incidences. We obtained significant positive correlations, peaking at the 150 m radius, between coffee berry borer abundance and proportion of coffee in the landscape. We also found significant positive correlations between coffee leaf rust incidence and proportion of pasture, peaking at the 200 m radius. Even after accounting for plot level predictors of coffee leaf rust and coffee berry borer through covariance analysis, the significance of landscape structure was maintained. We hypothesized that connected coffee plots favored coffee berry borer movements and improved its survival. We also hypothesized that wind turbulence, produced by low-wind-resistance land uses such as pasture, favored removal of coffee leaf rust spore clusters from host surfaces, resulting in increased epidemics. In contrast, root-knot nematode population density was not correlated to landscape context, possibly because nematodes are almost immobile in the soil. We propose fragmenting coffee plots with forest corridors to control coffee berry borer movements between coffee plots without favoring coffee leaf rust dispersal.     

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Geologic processes influence the effects of mining on aquatic ecosystems

Geologic processes strongly influence water and sediment quality in aquatic ecosystems but rarely are geologic principles incorporated into routine biomonitoring studies. We test if elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment are restricted to streams downstream of mines or areas that may discharge mine wastes. We surveyed 198 catchments classified as "historically mined" or "unmined," and based on mineral-deposit criteria, to determine whether water and sediment quality were influenced by naturally occurring mineralized rock, by historical mining, or by a combination of both. By accounting for different geologic sources of metals to the environment, we were able to distinguish aquatic ecosystems limited by metals derived from natural processes from those due to mining. Elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment were not restricted to mined catchments; depauperate aquatic communities were found in unmined catchments. The type and intensity of hydrothermal alteration and the mineral deposit type were important determinants of water and sediment quality as well as the aquatic community in both mined and unmined catchments. This study distinguished the effects of different rock types and geologic sources of metals on ecosystems by incorporating basic geologic processes into reference and baseline site selection, resulting in a refined assessment. Our results indicate that biomonitoring studies should account for natural sources of metals in some geologic environments as contributors to the effect of mines on aquatic ecosystems, recognizing that in mining-impacted drainages there may have been high pre-mining background metal concentrations.     

Look before you leap - individual variation in social vigilance shapes socio-spatial group properties in an agent-based model

Next to predator detection, primate vigilance also serves to keep track of relevant conspecifics. The degree of vigilance towards group members often reflects the dominance rank of an individual: subordinates pay attention to dominants. Although it has been suggested that subordinates' vigilance may result in spatial centrality of dominants, this has not been addressed in either empirical or modeling studies. Using agent-based models, we determined how social vigilance affects socio-spatial properties of primate groups. A basic model without social vigilance, where individuals avoid potential aggressors (avoidance model), was contrasted with two models that each additionally included a different type of social vigilance: a) monitoring a specific potential aggressor to remain informed on its whereabouts (monitoring model) or b) scanning the whole group to detect potential aggressors (scanning model). Adding monitoring or scanning behavior to the avoidance model reinforced spatial centrality of dominants, a pattern often observed in primates, and resulted in more spread out groups. Moreover, variation in scanning tendency alone was already sufficient to generate spatial centrality of dominants: frequently scanning subordinates could move further away from the group center than dominants, before losing sight of group members. In the monitoring model, two mechanisms caused decreased encounter frequencies among subordinates: a) increased inter-individual distances, and b) frequent monitoring of central dominants. In the scanning model, encounters among subordinates decreased due to increased inter-individual distances. This agent-based model study provides a clear indication that individual variation in social vigilance may be an important structuring feature of primate social groups.     

Trait similarity patterns within grass and grasshopper communities: multitrophic community assembly at work

Trait-based community assembly theory suggests that trait variation among co-occurring species is shaped by two main processes: abiotic filtering, important in stressful environments and promoting similarity, and competition, more important in productive environments and promoting dissimilarity. Previous studies have indeed found trait similarity to decline along productivity gradients. However, these studies have always been done on single trophic levels. Here, we investigated how interactions between trophic levels affect trait similarity patterns along environmental gradients. We propose three hypotheses for the main drivers of trait similarity patterns of plants and herbivores along environmental gradients: (1) environmental control of both, (2) bottom-up control of herbivore trait variation, and (3) top-down control of grass trait variation. To test this, we collected data on the community composition and trait variation of grasses (41 species) and grasshoppers (53 species) in 50 plots in a South African savanna. Structural equation models were used to investigate how the range and spacing of within-community functional trait values of both grasses and their insect herbivores (grasshoppers; Acrididae) respond to (1) rainfall and fire frequency gradients and (2) the trait similarity patterns of the other trophic level. The analyses revealed that traits of co-occurring grasses became more similar toward lower rainfall and higher fire frequency (environmental control), while showing little evidence for top-down control. Grasshopper trait range patterns, on the other hand, were mostly directly driven by vegetation structure and grass trait range patterns (bottom-up control), while environmental factors had mostly indirect effects via plant traits. Our study shows the potential to expand trait-based community assembly theory to include trophic interactions.     

Do predators control prey species abundance? An experimental test with brown treesnakes on Guam

The effect of predators on the abundance of prey species is a topic of ongoing debate in ecology; the effect of snake predators on their prey has been less debated, as there exists a general consensus that snakes do not negatively influence the abundance of their prey. However, this viewpoint has not been adequately tested. We quantified the effect of brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) predation on the abundance and size of lizards on Guam by contrasting lizards in two 1-ha treatment plots of secondary forest from which snakes had been removed and excluded vs. two 1-ha control plots in which snakes were monitored but not removed or excluded. We removed resident snakes from the treatment plots with snake traps and hand capture, and snake immigration into these plots was precluded by electrified snake barriers. Lizards were sampled in all plots quarterly for a year following snake elimination in the treatment plots. Following the completion of this experiment, we used total removal sampling to census lizards on a 100-m2 subsample of each plot. Results of systematic lizard population monitoring before and after snake removal suggest that the abundance of the skink, Carlia ailanpalai, increased substantially and the abundance of two species of gekkonids, Lepidodactylus lugubris and Hemidactylus frenatus, also increased on snake-free plots. No treatment effect was observed for the skink Emoia caeruleocauda. Mean snout-vent length of all lizard species only increased following snake removal in the treatment plots. The general increase in prey density and mean size was unexpected in light of the literature consensus that snakes do not control the abundance of their prey species. Our findings show that, at least where alternate predators are lacking, snakes may indeed affect prey populations.