多变量洪水频率的计算

将Gunbel-logistic模型和Gumbel-mixed模型进行了对比,并解析了不同组合情形下的洪水频率结果。研究表明:当输入的二元变量的相关性不大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值差异不大,当输入的二元变量的相关性大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值存在较大的差异,这是由于此时Gumbel-mixed模型已经失效的缘故,因此Gunbel-logistic模型的应用范围较Gunbel-mixed模型更宽。就Gunbel-logistic模型而言,对不同洪水特征量的组合情形得到的重现期差异较大,所得重现期差异幅度达800年。可见,二元变量的洪水频率计算,模型的选择和洪水特征量组合情形的选取是决定洪水频率结果的主要影响因素。     

台风灾害气象指数保险相关技术方法初探

气象指数灾害保险是目前全球范围内广泛研究的一种风险转移工具,它可以克服传统的自然灾害保险的局限性,在农业保险领域应用前景广阔。以福建省连江县为例,依据连江县台风灾害及台风活动特征,将能够对连江县造成一定损失的台风分成分别以大风、大雨和大风雨为主导的3类。结合连江站相关气象数据及概率分布建立了广义的台风灾害气象指数,最后构建了保险赔付路线图,以供有关部门参考。     

风电自动发电控制策略可行性分析

为应对大规模风电并网运行带来的诸多不利因素,在传统水、火电机组有功控制技术的基础上,综合风电运行特点,研究分析了计划曲线跟踪、限时段控制等多种风电有功控制策略,并且成功实现了宁夏首次风电联网有功闭环控制。研究结果表明:风电有功控制策略有较强的可行性,能够为电网接纳大规模风电运行提供关键技术支撑。     

大运行体系下变电站运行画面远程调阅方法的实现

为实现电网“调控一体化”建设所需的“变电站运行画面远程调阅”应用业务,对电子式切换器、远方终端、图形网关、第三方应用软件4种常见实现方式进行了分析,总结对比了其优缺点。分析结果表明:第三方应用软件、图形网关2种方式更适合“变电站运行画面远程调阅”应用业务的需求。     

Properties of Pyrolytic Chars and Activated Carbons Derived from Pilot-Scale Pyrolysis of Used Tires

Abstract

Used tires were pyrolyzed in a pilot-scale quasi-inert rotary kiln. Influences of variables, such as time, temperature, and agent flow, on the activation of obtained char were subsequently investigated in a laboratory-scale fixed bed. Meso-porous pores are found to be dominant in the pore structures of raw char. Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surfaces of activated chars increased linearly with carbon burnoff. The carbon burnoff of tire char achieved by carbon dioxide (CO₂) under otherwise identical conditions was on average 75% of that achieved by steam, but their BET surfaces are almost the same. The proper activation greatly improved the aqueous adsorption of raw char, especially for small molecular adsorbates, for example, phenol from 6 to 51 mg/g. With increasing burnoff, phenol adsorption exhibited a first-stage linear increase followed by a rapid drop after 30% burnoff. Similarly, iodine adsorption first increased linearly, but it held as the burnoff exceeded 40%, which implied that the reduction of iodine adsorption due to decreasing micro-pores was partially made up by increasing mesopores. Both raw chars and activated chars showed appreciable adsorption capacity of methylene-blue comparable with that of commercial carbons. Thus, tire-derived activated carbons can be used as an excellent mesoporous adsorbent for larger molecular species.     

The dissipation rates of trichlorfon and its degradation product dichlorvos in cabbage and soil

The residual levels and dissipation rate of trichlorfon, and its degradation product, dichlorvos, in cabbage crops and the soil in which these were grown, were determined by gas chromatography at two geographically distant experimental sites, one in Kunming and one in Beijing, China. Trichlorfon was applied at two dosages (900 g ai ha⁻¹ and 1350 g ai ha⁻¹). Maximum final residues of trichlorfon in soil and cabbage were 1.23 mg kg⁻¹ and 1.81 mg kg⁻¹ respectively at Kunming, and 0.35 mg kg⁻¹ and 0.70 mg kg⁻¹ respectively at Beijing. However, the final residues of dichlorvos in both cabbage and soil was only 0.04 mg kg⁻¹ at Kunming, and only 0.03 mg kg⁻¹, or “not detectable”, at Beijing. The mean half-life of trichlorfon in cabbage was 1.80 d with a dissipation rate of 90% over 5 d, while that in soil was 3.05 d with a dissipation rate of 90% over 14 d at one experimental site. The dissipation rates of trichlorfon and its degradation product dichlorvos at the two experimental sites were different, suggesting that degradation of these pesticides was affected by local soil characteristics and climate. When applied at both the recommended dosage and at 1.5 times this, no detectable residues of either trichlorfon or dichlorvos were found in soil or cabbage at harvest. Although trichlorfon can easily degrade into dichlorvos, which is highly toxic to humans and other animals, the observed low residual levels of dichlorvos suggest that trichlorfon is safe when applied at the recommended dosage.     

山东省东营市生态环境与经济发展协调度评估

东营市是黄河三角洲地区最为重要的经济增长区域.该区是我国东部沿海最大的石油、天然气产区,三次产业之间极不协调,第二产业比重过高,其中石油工业占东营市经济总量的70%,第三产业偏低,产业结构升级、优化缓慢.该区生态环境脆弱,在保持经济发展的同时,必须协调环境与经济之间的关系.该文在分析东营市经济发展与产业结构的基础上,利用协调度计量模型计算得出:2008年东营市经济发展指数为1.89,相应的环境质量指数为1.04,综合环境经济发展指数为1.82,环境经济协调度为0.35,表明东营市生态环境与经济发展处于失调状态.因此,提出东营市生态环境与经济协调发展建议:①依靠现代农业技术,推进生态农业建设;②以产品对环境危害最小化、生产工艺清洁化、排放物低“三废”化、技术高科技化为目标,加快绿色油田建设;③依托黄河三角洲湿地生态旅游,推动以生态旅游为核心的三产发展.     

民族地区农村信息化与农民收入关系研究——基于恩施州利川市调研结果的实证分析

运用对国家民委的863科技项目推广点之一的湖北恩施自治州利川市的调研数据,采用多变量回归和Logistic回归模型对信息化与农村经济发展、特别是与农民收入之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:信息化与农民收入有着正相关的关系;农民的收入结构与信息化、农民的文化程度也有着密切的关系。     

完善我国医疗废物集中处置收费政策的思考和建议

医疗废物处置收费政策是医疗废物处置产业化发展的重要前提和保障。当前,医疗废物处置收费政策执行难,欠费、漏费等问题非常突出,医疗废物集中收集十分困难。在对我国医疗废物处置收费政策进行全面分析和评估的基础上,对当前收费政策存在的主要问题和产生的原因进行了分析。以加快完善医疗废物处置收费政策为目标,从完善政策体系、加强监管执法、提高标准合理性、综合确定费用承担方、制定鼓励性的经济政策、提高宣传和缴费意识等方面,提出医疗废物处置收费政策改革完善的若干建议。     

Sequestration of organochlorine pesticides in soils of distinct organic carbon content

In the present study, five soil samples with organic carbon contents ranging from 0.23% to 7.1% and aged with technical dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) for 15 months were incubated in a sealed chamber to investigate the dynamic changes of the OCP residues. The residues in the soils decreased over the incubation period and finally reached a plateau. Regression analysis showed that degradable fractions of OCPs were negatively correlated with soil organic carbon (SOC) except for α-HCH, while no correlation was found between degradation rate and SOC, which demonstrated that SOC content determines the OCP sequestration fraction in soil. Analysis of the ratio of DDT and its primary metabolites showed that, since it depends on differential sequestration among them, magnitude of (p,p′-DDE + p,p′-DDD)/p,p′-DDT is not a reliable criterion for the identification of new DDT sources.