贵州喀斯特地区土壤细菌群落结构特征及变化

为探明贵州喀斯特不同植被演替群落下的土壤细菌群落结构及变化特征,本文利用高通量测序技术对5个主要植被演替群落(稀灌草丛、藤刺灌丛、灌木林、乔灌过渡林、乔木林)的根际(竹叶椒)、非根际土壤细菌群落结构及环境因子进行了分析研究。结果表明:贵州喀斯特高原土壤细菌类群主要为变形菌门(Proteobacteria)、酸杆菌门(Acidobacteria)、疣微菌门(Verrucomicrobia)、放线菌门(Actinobacteria)、厚壁菌门(Firmicutes)、拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes)和浮霉菌门(Planctomycetes),其相对丰富度分别为43.35%、12.97%、7.53%、7.12%、6.19%、5.35%、5.05%,未分类类群占7.36%。样品中检测到了较低丰度的广古菌门和泉古菌门。随植被群落演替,根际土壤中变形菌门、厚壁菌门和浮霉菌门丰度逐渐增加;非根际土壤中酸杆菌门和疣微菌门丰度随植被演替逐渐减小。贵州喀斯特高原土壤细菌的影响因子大小为土壤有机碳、土壤总氮、含水量、电导率等,其中土壤有机碳和土壤总氮有显著性影响。     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

水利工程建设社会稳定风险评估与实证研究

水利工程建设社会系统脆弱性能够反映社会稳定风险水平,系统越脆弱,社会稳定风险水平越高。基于系统脆弱性视角,引入工程建设的公众风险认知,从社会风险暴露、公众风险认知、敏感性和应对能力四个维度构建水利工程建设社会系统脆弱性评价体系和模型,并对G水利工程建设社会稳定风险评估进行了实证研究。结果表明:2007-2018年G工程建设所在区域社会系统脆弱性逐渐降低,并且随着社会风险应对能力的不断提高,2014-2018年工程建设期的社会稳定风险处于较低水平,社会失稳的可能性较小,并建议通过构建标准化风险识别体系,实现风险评估端口的前移;引入公众参与,提高公众风险认知水平;加强社会保障能力建设、完善利益补偿机制、提高经济发展水平和风险控制能力应对工程建设产生的社会风险,降低社会系统脆弱性,实现社会稳定风险的有效控制。     

2010-2013年我国柴油车黑碳排放状况分析

我国柴油车的快速增长给我国柴油车污染治理带来了极大的压力,柴油车黑碳排放的研究有益于对空气质量、人体健康和气候变化采取积极的措施。研究表明,从2010年到2013年,我国柴油车增长了23%,柴油类汽车保有量约增长了约43.3%;而我国柴油车的黑碳排放量出现先增后减的趋势,2013年我国柴油机动车的黑碳排放量约为33.33万吨,比2012年减少了2.8%;河南、河北、山东、广东和内蒙五个省(自治区)柴油机动车的黑碳排放约占全国黑碳排放的37.3%。研究结果初步显示了我国柴油车污染控制的效果。     

被动加标在水生生态风险评价中的应用——以多氯联苯分配系数的测定为例

准确的水生生态风险评价需要可靠的毒性数据,而其获取要求在一定时间范围内,水体中污染物的浓度保持恒定。对疏水性有机污染物进行水体生物毒性测试时,通常采用有机溶剂加标,然而该方式可能因为污染物的挥发和降解、容器壁吸附、生物摄取等问题,水体中污染物浓度持续下降,导致污染物的浓度-效应关系难以明确。近期为了克服这些问题,被动加标用于替代溶剂加标,通过污染物在加标体系中平衡分配来维持精确和恒定的水体浓度,同时还可通过测定加标聚合物中污染物的浓度来监测水体浓度。首先介绍了被动加标方法及其材料选择,讨论了该方法在生态风险评价中的主要应用,包括分配系数的测定、体外细胞测试、体内生物积累及毒性测试,以及沉积物毒性评价等。然后,以测定代表污染物多氯联苯在聚二甲基硅氧烷与水间的分配系数为例,详细说明被动加标的操作流程。最后,讨论了被动加标方法的优缺点,并对其在水生生态风险中的应用前景进行了展望。     

不同情景下长江口滩涂湿地2020年景观演变预测

为了解长江口典型滩涂湿地景观格局演变过程,根据1980—2010年长江口滩涂湿地演变规律,采用土地利用动态变化模型Dyna-CLUE模型和CA模型预测2020年长江口3处典型滩涂湿地崇明东滩、南汇边滩以及九段沙在生态保护、现行趋势和围垦加剧3种不同情景下的景观演变。结果表明:到2020年,在生态保护情景、现行趋势情景和围垦加剧情景下,堤外滩涂湿地总面积分别增长56、44 km2以及减少7 km2,其中芦苇(Phragmites australis)、互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)和海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)群落面积比由2010年的36∶38∶26分别变化为2020年的46∶34∶20、38∶38∶24和38∶37∶25。对于崇明东滩、南汇边滩和九段沙而言,生态保护情景下滩涂湿地面积分别增加7、43和6 km2,而现行趋势情景和围垦加剧情景下,滩涂湿地面积呈现不断减少的趋势。     

压缩空气泡沫在长距离管路输送中压降的数值模拟

基于Fluent对压缩空气泡沫在长距离管道中的流动特性进行了数值模拟研究,将压缩空气泡沫近似为弥散流,采用Saplart-Allmaras模型模拟了不同管径下压缩空气泡沫以及不同泡沫原液浓度的AFFF泡沫在长距离管道内的流动及压降变化。模拟结果表明,随着距离变化,各管径管道内压降均呈现线性变化,且随着压缩空气泡沫的流动,压降线性增大。管道管径对管内压降变化具有显著影响,管道直径越小,管道内压降越大;泡沫原液浓度对压降的影响较小,且压缩空气泡沫在长距离输送中的压力随距离线性衰减。将模拟结果与长距离输送的试验结果进行了对比,误差在10%以内。     

宁沪高速公路雾事故特征及雾危险指数研究

统计了2008-2015年宁沪高速公路上由雾造成的交通事故92起,分析了雾事故与雾发生频率之间的关系,研究发现,雾事故易发生于秋冬季,而冬季由于路面摩擦系数较低更易出现事故;经过比较,能见度低于100 m的条件下雾事故发生概率较大;早晨6-8时为雾事故发生的高峰期,这与此时段雾发生频率较高及车流量加大有关;宁沪高速的西段为雾事故及雾发生频率较高的路段;分析了雾事故发生时的能见度与湿度、温度和风速的关系;利用能见度区间,雾日变化特征,摩擦系数及雾站点覆盖率制定了宁沪高速雾危险指数NHFI,并利用Spearman秩相关系数法分别比较了NHFI,雾日数与雾事故数的相关性,结果显示NHFI评价路段危险性要比单纯用雾日数更合理和精确。通过利用数值模式计算每段路的NHFI可以预测宁沪高速危险指数及危险路段分布。     

河流多生境自然塑造技术在北运河流域再生水河道修复中的应用研究

遵循"基于自然的解决方案(Natural based solution)"理念,本研究开发了由渗滤型边滩、生态跌水和近自然河溪构成的河流多生境自然塑造技术及系统,并在北运河流域的再生水河道台头沟实施了工程应用与示范.结果表明,该技术与系统具有良好的水质净化效果,对氨氮、总氮、总磷和化学需氧量的平均削减率分别为62.15...