BENEFITS OF ITERATIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C., METROPOLITAN AREA1

The three largest water utilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) rely on the Potomac River and its reservoirs for water supply. These utilities have committed to a periodic review of the system's adequacy to meet future demands. In 1990, 1995, 2000, and again in 2004 (for publication in 2005) the utilities requested that the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) conduct a 20‐year water demand and resource adequacy study to fulfill this need. The selection of the five‐year interval provides multiple benefits. It allows regular updates and incorporation of recent demographic forecasts, and it increases visibility and understanding of the adequacy of the region's water resources. It also provides adequate time to conduct research on the physical system and to incorporate modifications based on this research into subsequent studies. The studies and lessons learned are presented in this case study of the WMA. The work has been a natural outgrowth of a long history of cooperative water supply planning and management among the main WMA water utilities and ICPRB.     

Determination of the emissions from an aircraft auxiliary power unit (APU) during the Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX)

The emissions from a Garrett-AiResearch (now Honeywell) Model GTCP85-98CK auxiliary power unit (APU) were determined as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX) using both JP-8 and a coal-derived Fischer Tropsch fuel (FT-2). Measurements were conducted by multiple research organizations for sulfur dioxide (SO2, total hydrocarbons (THC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), speciated gas-phase emissions, particulate matter (PM) mass and number, black carbon, and speciated PM. In addition, particle size distribution (PSD), number-based geometric mean particle diameter (GMD), and smoke number were also determined from the data collected. The results of the research showed PM mass emission indices (EIs) in the range of 20 to 700 mg/kg fuel and PM number EIs ranging from 0.5 x 10(15) to 5 x 10(15) particles/kg fuel depending on engine load and fuel type. In addition, significant reductions in both the SO2 and PM EIs were observed for the use of the FT fuel. These reductions were on the order of approximately 90% for SO2 and particle mass EIs and approximately 60% for the particle number EI, with similar decreases observed for black carbon. Also, the size of the particles generated by JP-8 combustion are noticeably larger than those emitted by the APU burning the FT fuel with the geometric mean diameters ranging from 20 to 50 nm depending on engine load and fuel type. Finally, both particle-bound sulfate and organics were reduced during FT-2 combustion. The PM sulfate was reduced by nearly 100% due to lack of sulfur in the fuel, with the PM organics reduced by a factor of approximately 5 as compared with JP-8.     

Precipitation or evapotranspiration? Bayesian analysis of potential error sources in the simulation of sub-basin discharges in the Czech Elbe River basin

A global change assessment required detailed simulation of water availability in the Elbe River basin in Central Europe (148,268?km2). Using the spatially semi-distributed, eco-hydrological model SWIM, spatial calibration was applied. For 225 sub-areas covering the model domain (134,890?km2), evapotranspiration and groundwater dynamics were individually adjusted. The calibration aimed at good correspondences with long-term run-off contributions and the hydrographs for two extreme years. Measured run-off was revised from water management effects to produce quasi-natural discharges for calibration. At some gauges, there were large volume differences between these reference data and the simulations of the spatially uncalibrated model. Most affected were some sub-basins in the Czech part of the basin where the density of available climate stations was much lower than the German part. Thus, both erroneous precipitation data and systematic flaws in the evapotranspiration module of SWIM could have caused the differences. In order to identify the major error source and to validate the choice of spatial calibration parameters (evapotranspiration and groundwater dynamic corrections), MCMC analyses were made for three Czech areas. Optional precipitation correction had been considered by a third calibration parameter in the MCMC assessment. In two of the three cases, it can be shown that evapotranspiration corrections are preferable as precipitation errors are negligible. In the third case, where the analyses indicate a substantial error in precipitation data, an interpolation problem of the climate data at the edge of the model domain could be found. Hence, the applied method shows its potential to identify specific sources of uncertainty in hydrological modelling.     

Response to W. Kramer: The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests,after Chernobyl,and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities: comment (doi:10.1007/s11356-011-0644-8)

Introduction

This paper is in response to criticism of our article “The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities” published in Environ Sci Pollut Res 18(5):697–707, 2011.

Methods

Our findings and methods concerning the disturbed human sex odds at birth have been criticized in this journal for being artifacts of data mining, that the concept of statistical significance was misunderstood, and that confounding factors have not been accounted for. Here, we show that this criticism has no basis. We applied well-established statistical methods to large official data sets, and confounding is less important at the level of secular sex odds trends in aggregated annual figures from countries or continents.

Results and conclusions

Moreover, our results are strengthened by recent findings concerning increased infant death sex odds in Germany and increased Down syndrome prevalence at birth across Europe after Chernobyl. Prompted by our studies, an official investigation in Lower Saxony, Germany, by the “Niedersächsisches Landesgesundheitsamt (NLGA)” confirmed our observation of severely escalated sex odds within 40 km distance from the nuclear storage site in Gorleben, Germany.

     

Enlarged lantern size in similar-sized,sympatric, sibling species of Strongylocentrotid sea urchins: from phenotypic accommodation to functional adaptation for durophagy

Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis is a well known omnivorous sea urchin with an unrivalled capacity to destroy North Atlantic kelp forests. S. pallidus is a lesser known, morphologically similar, and closely related species with no record of destructive grazing, despite its larger lantern size. I quantify the lantern size of both species using bivariate allometric analysis, and test the hypothesis that enlarged lantern size facilitates durophagy, the consumption of hard prey, by measuring the feeding capacity of urchins with different lantern sizes when offered a hard-shelled prey, the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis. The results suggest that S. droebachiensis has a limited capacity for durophagous feeding irrespective of lantern size, whereas in S. pallidus the ability to exploit hard shelled prey is positively related to lantern size. This is apparently the first evidence of a relationship between trophic morphology and diet in regular sea urchins. The hypothesis of systematic latitudinal variation in the lantern size of S. pallidus is reappraised and rejected. S. droebachiensis had larger gonads than S. pallidus in field samples, confirming that its small lantern is not impeding nutrient acquisition in shallow habitats.     

Lipids and fatty acids as indicators of egg condition,larval feeding and maternal effects in Cape hakes (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Merluccius paradoxus</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">M. capensis</Emphasis>)

Cape hakes, Merluccius paradoxus and M. capensis, are important gadoid fish that are commercially harvested in the Benguela Current system off Namibia and South Africa. The aim of this study was to elucidate the nutritional condition and feeding preferences of their larvae. Hake eggs and larvae were sampled in austral spring of two consecutive years, 2007 and 2008, off the west coast of South Africa. They were identified to species using genetics, and total lipid content and fatty acid (FA) composition were analysed for each individual egg and larva to compare the condition of different early life stages of both hake species. Higher abundances of M. paradoxus eggs and larvae were consistently found compared to M. capensis. In both species, eggs contained wax esters (WE) and had significantly higher lipid content per dry mass than larvae. Lipid content as well as FA composition changed with the developmental stage of larvae. Quantities of essential fatty acid (EFA) increased with feeding of larvae due to dietary lipid incorporation. In 2007, yolk-sac larvae contained significantly lower total lipids than in 2008. It is argued that this was due to reduced lipid transfer by the spawning females to the eggs. These findings indicate that maternal effects are important in determining condition of hake larvae and that this may have an effect on their survival and subsequent recruitment.