Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices

Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support integrates collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resources decisions. Practitioners and advocates claim that the approach will lead to better water management, balancing interests more effectively and reducing the likelihood of costly legal delays. These claims are easy to make, but the benefits will only be realized if the process is conducted effectively. To provide guidance for how to conduct an effective collaborative modeling process, a task committee cosponsored by the Environmental Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of the American Society of Civil Engineers and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources developed a set of Principles and Best Practices for anyone who might convene or conduct collaborative modeling processes. The guidance is intended for both conflict resolution professionals and modelers, and our goal is to integrate these two fields in a way that will improve water resources planning and decision making. Here, the set of eight principles is presented along with a selection of associated best practices, illustrated by two different case examples. The complete document is available at: http://www.computeraideddisputeresolution.us/bestpractices/ .     

Evaluation of chloroform/methanol and dichloromethane/hexane extractable lipids as surrogate measures of sample partition capacity for organochlorines in fish tissues

Organic contaminant concentration data are often lipid normalized to provide an indication of the chemical fugacity in the sample or to compare the relative equilibrium status of samples from the same environment. This study compared lipid normalized PCB and organochlorine concentration data for tissues of individual fish when lipids were measured using chloroform/methanol (CM) or dichloromethane/hexane (DH) extractions. The CM extraction produced higher lipid yields for dorsal muscle (8-fold difference) and carcass (1.7-fold difference) compared to DH extractions, while both methods yielded comparable lipid contents for liver and adipose tissue. Lipid normalized tissue/carcass PCB and organochlorine concentration ratios were variable across tissue types when lipid contents from the CM technique were used, whereas, tissue/carcass concentration ratios approached the expected value of unity for each tissue when DH-derived lipids were used. These data suggest that the tissue lipid content as derived using the DH extraction provided a better surrogate measure of sample partition capacity than tissue lipids determined using the CM technique.     

Sympatric size variants of the microcopepod Oncaea venusta exhibit distinct lineages in DNA sequences

We investigated the phylogenetic relationships among different size groups of the pelagic microcopepod Oncaea venusta Philippi, 1843, by comparing the patterns of genetic variation of specimens collected at five locations of the Indo-West Pacific Ocean. Phylogenetic analyses were based on sequence data obtained from two DNA markers: A 310 bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b) gene and a 480 bp fragment of the nuclear internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1). The cyt b sequences showed a much higher level of variation than those from ITS1, but the conclusion from both genes was concordant. Four genetic clades could be differentiated. A small- and a large-size group were unambiguously assigned to two distinct clades or lineages. Unexpectedly, the medium-sized individuals could be divided into another two different genetic clades. All four lineages were supported by high bootstrap values. The high levels of sequence divergence under sympatric conditions indicated that at least the two main groups, the large and the small one, may be assigned to different species. For the medium-size group additional morphological studies and more sensitive nuclear markers are required to clarify their taxonomic status.     

Ontogenetic and seasonal changes in lipid and fatty acid/alcohol compositions of the dominant Antarctic copepods Calanus propinquus,Calanoides acutus and Rhincalanus gigas

Lipid compositions of the dominant Antarctic copepods Calanoides acutus, Rhincalanus gigas and Calanus propinquus from the Weddell Sea have been investigated in great detail. Copepods were collected during summer in 1985 and late spring/early winter in 1986. The analyses revealed specific adaptations in the lipid biochemistry of these species which result in very different lipid components. The various copepodite stages of C. acutus synthesize wax esters with long-chain monounsaturated moieties and especially the alcohols consisted mainly of 20:1(n-9) and 22:1(n-11). R. gigas also generates wax esters, but with moieties of shorter chain length. The fatty alcohols consisted mainly of 14:0 and 16:0 components, while the major fatty acids were 20:5, 18:4 and 22:6, of which 18:4 probably originated from dietary input. In contrast, C. propinquus accumulates triacylglycerols, a very unusual depot lipid in polar calanoid copepods. Major fatty acids in C. propinquus were the long-chain monounsaturates 22:1(n-9) and 22:1(n-11), which may comprise up to 50% of total fatty acids. In C. acutus and C. propinquus there was a clear increase of long-chain fatty acids with increasing developmental stage. In contrast, the fatty acid and alcohol composition of the R. gigas copepodite stages were characterized by the dominance of the polyunsaturated fatty acids as well as high amounts of the monounsaturates 18:1(n-9) and 16:1(n-7). There was a considerable decrease of the dietary fatty acid 18:4(n-3) towards the older stages during summer; in late winter/early spring 18:4 was only detected in very low amounts. This tendency was also found in the other two species, but was less pronounced. In all three species dry weight and lipid content increased exponentially from younger to older stages. The highest portion of wax esters, or of triacylglycerols in C. propinquus, was found in the adults. Dry weight and lipid content were generally higher during summer. In late winter/early spring the variability was more pronounced and lipid-rich specimens showed a selective retention of long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids, whereas in lipid-poor specimens these fatty acids were very much depleted.     

Pulse emissions of N2O and CO2 from an arable field depending on fertilization and tillage practice

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from soil are characterized by strong emission pulses. Although several mechanisms are known to create them, pulses are difficult to predict. Currently there is no established systematic way to identify pulses from long-term static chamber measurement results. In this study we suggest a simple algorithm for pulse identification. The algorithm was applied on time series of N₂O and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes from a field study on the long-term impact of fertilization and tillage practice. Between 4 and 9% of N₂O values were pulse values; 20-60% of total emission was emitted as pulses. Minimum tillage resulted in more pulses than plowing. In contrast, long-term averages of N₂O losses from nitrogen (N) fertilizer were similar (3-4%) for all management practices. N₂O emissions per crop yield for increased fertilization practice were double the values for reduced fertilization practice independent of tillage practice. CO₂ emission pulses were scarce and there was no significant effect of management practice on CO₂ pulse probability.     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Long-term persistence of seeded grass species: an unwanted side effect of ecological restoration

Spoil heaps are the visible footprint of hydropower production, particularly in vulnerable alpine environments. Speeding up vegetation development by seeding commercial grass species has been a common restoration practice for the last 50 years, but we lack information on whether seeded species decline and allow native plant cover to develop. We visually estimated cover of native vascular plants and five seeded grass species (Agrostis capillaris, Festuca ovina, Festuca rubra, Schedonorus pratensis and Phleum pratense) on eight spoil heaps at different elevations (boreal–alpine zone) in western Norway. Spoil heap vegetation was censused twice (9–20 and 24–36 years after spoil heap construction); the undisturbed surrounding vegetation was also censused on the second occasion. Total cover on the spoil heaps showed some increase, but remained far below that in surrounding areas. Cover of seeded grass species in the surroundings was low (but not negligible), indicating suboptimal establishment ability. Seeded species usually covered less than 20 % of the spoil heaps, and only F. rubra, F. ovina and A. capillaris contributed substantially. Proportional cover indicated better initial establishment by seeded species, but their cover decreased between the censuses on all but the highest located spoil heap. The persistence of seeded grass species is problematic, and despite the decrease in proportional cover, they are likely to persist for decades on spoil heaps, posing a risk of invasion of surrounding areas. We therefore recommend replacing the practice of seeding with more appropriate restoration measures.