Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Current analyses do not resolve whether extra-pair paternity is male or female driven

Recent studies question the importance of indirect genetic effects in explaining female benefits of extra-pair matings in socially monogamous species. Compiling data on 14 wild bird species, Arnqvist and Kirkpatrick (Am Nat 165:S26–S37, 2005) estimated the average direct cost in terms or reduced parental care to be an order of magnitude larger than the potential effect of genetic benefits. This study has sparked a debate regarding potential confounding factors but no consensus appears to have been reached. Here we focus on the implicit assumption that all individuals face the same selective pressures and argue that this assumption is probably too strong in most cases. Using a theoretical model we show that when the amount of resources that a male provides depends on territory quality, his physical condition or prospects for alternative breeding opportunities, a female may respond to such differences by altering her mating behaviour. Such confounding factors may lead to direct fitness effects that result in negative correlations between paternal care and paternity even if females that produce extra-pair young experience a net benefit. Negative correlations can also result when males forcefully seek copulations and females resist them. We discuss the studies included in the analysis in this light, and conclude that current analyses on the net selective pressures remain uninformative. In addition to considering average effects across individuals and species we suggest giving attention to individual differences and the influence of ecological factors such as territory quality and predation pressures on female mating behaviour.     

Amniocentesis rate and the detection of down syndrome and other chromosomal anomalies in Israel

We investigated the contribution of different screening criteria to the prenatal detection of Down syndrome (DS) as well as other chromosomal anomalies in the Jewish population in Israel during 1990 and 1992. There was a significant decrease (P<0·03) in the incidence of DS live-births during 1992 (40:78 442) compared with 1990 (69:73 751) which paralleled a marked increase in total prenatal testing and in DS cases detected prenatally. Private laboratories, which perform amniocenteses mostly for women with a low risk of DS and without genetic counselling, had a significantly lower detection rate (1:917) compared with that of the genetic institutes, which following genetic counselling test both women ≥ 37 years of age (1:91) and women younger than 37 years (1:113). The detection of chromosomal anomalies other than DS was less affected by the reason for amniocentesis. Amniocentesis indicated by maternal serum marker screening of women younger than 37 years identified a greater number of chromosomal anomalies other than DS than amniocentesis based on age (≥37 years) alone (111:9604 versus 94:9810; P<0·06). Prenatal detection of DS is most effective when the indication for amniocentesis follows genetic counselling. The increasing use of maternal serum marker screening leads to a significant improvement in the positive detection rate of chromosomal anomalies other than DS in young women.     

Prenatal diagnosis of cri du chat (5p-) syndrome in association with isolated moderate bilateral ventriculomegaly

A case of prenatally detected cri du chat syndrome (5p-) is reported. Amniocentesis was performed following an abnormal ultrasound finding of isolated moderate bilateral ventriculomegaly. The karyotype showed a terminal deletion of the short arm of chromosome 5 including the critical region 5p15 for cri du chat syndrome. This was confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Isolated mild ventriculomegaly may be a non-specific marker for cri du chat syndrome. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of beetroot fibers to clean water contaminated with heavy metals,to soften hard water,and to desalinate seawater

In this article we describe the use of beetroot fibers in treating water contaminated with heavy metals, in softening hard water, and in desalinating seawater. The study was carried out with either beetroot fibers or powdered fibers using a laboratory column with a fixed bed. The effectiveness of the method and the effect of the pH on it were monitored by atomic absorption spectrometry, infrared spectroscopy, conductivity measurements, and a volumetric method. The optimum pH range for all the treatment was found to be between 6.0 and 6.6. The heavy metals included in this study were lead, copper, nickel, and zinc. The amount of heavy metals retained by the fibers or the powder was significant in each case. The retention capacity was the strongest for lead and the weakest for nickel. In the case of hard water and seawater studies, our experiments revealed a dramatic decrease in total dissolved solids (TDS), indicating the potential of the method as an aid or an alternative to conventional methods.     

Functional Properties of Extruded Acetylated Starch-Cellulose Foams

Acetylated starches, with degrees of substitution (DS) of 2, 2.5 and 3, were blended with 3%, 7.5% and 12% -cellulose and 14%, 17% or 20% (d.b.) ethanol and twin-screw extruded at 165°C barrel temperature and 225 rpm screw speed. A response surface methodology experimental design was applied to the sub-plot and a completely randomized design to the whole plot design to test the differences among the acetylated starches and the effects of cellulose and ethanol. DS, cellulose and ethanol contents significantly affected the functional properties and specific mechanical energy requirement. DS had positive effects on radial expansion ratio (RER), compressibility and specific mechanical energy requirement and a negative effect on bulk density. Highest (RER) was obtained from 20% ethanol content. Extrudates containing 12% cellulose had the highest bulk density and the highest compressibility. Higher cellulose contents required more specific mechanical energy.     

Managing tricky decentralised competencies: case study of a participatory modelling experiment on land use in the Lake Guiers area in Northern Senegal

We describe an action-research project whose objective was to help stakeholders at different organisational levels achieve sustainable land management by developing mediation models and tools. We chose to test a specific approach called companion modelling in the framework of a multidisciplinary research partnership and a formal local partnership (a ‘users committee’) involving an array of stakeholders at different organisational levels. The study area covers 10,000 km² of agro-pastoral land around Lake Guiers in northern Senegal. We conducted studies to update the knowledge base of the area and organised six field workshops that clearly revealed three important tool functions to support decision-making on land use at different scales, i.e. understanding maps, monitoring and evaluating land tenure, and foreseeing changes in land use. We found that a toolbox approach was the best way to implement the three functions and overcome the constraints faced by the research team and those linked to the timing of the project. Therefore, we produced five simple complementary tools aimed at various users: a farm-level optimisation model (for researchers and technical services), a database for land allocations and a discussion tool to assess the impact of land allocation decisions (for the rural council), a paper atlas (for local players) and a regional land use change simulation model (for regional and national planners). Participants were able to work with paper maps, to interpret computer-generated simulations of land use change and understand the strengths and limitations of each. Self-assessment of the research process emphasised the importance of the context and the critical role played by social capital at both the research and the field level, which, in turn, emphasised the need for major improvements in the design and implementation of a quality process for participatory modelling. It turns out that action-research may be an effective way to undertake sustainability science.     

Long-range transport episodes of fine particles in southern Finland during 1999–2007

The frequency, strength and sources of long-range transport (LRT) episodes of fine particles (PM_2.5) were studied in southern Finland using air quality monitoring results, backward air mass trajectories, remote sensing of fire hot spots, transport and dispersion modelling of smoke and chemical analysis of particle samples (black carbon, monosaccharide anhydrides, oxalate, succinate, malonate, SO₄^2?, NO₃^?, K⁺ and NH₄⁺). At an urban background site in Helsinki, the daily WHO guideline value (24-h PM_2.5 mean 25 μg m^?3) was exceeded during 1–7 LRT episodes per year in 1999–2007. The 24-h mean maximum concentrations varied between 25 and 49 μg m^?3 during the episodes, which was 3–6 times higher than the local mean concentration (8.7 μg m^?3) in 1999–2007. The highest particle concentrations (max. 1-h mean 163 μg m^?3) and the longest episodes (max. 9 days) were mainly caused by the emissions from open biomass burning, especially during springs and late-summers in 2002 and 2006. During the period 2001–2007, the satellite remote sensing of active fire hot spots and transport and dispersion modelling of smoke indicated that approximately half of the episodes were caused partly by the emissions from wildfires and/or agricultural waste burning in fields in Eastern Europe, especially in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Other episodes were mainly caused by the LRT of ordinary anthropogenic pollutants, e.g. from energy production, traffic, industry and wood combustion. During those ‘other episodes’, air masses also arrived from Eastern Europe, including Poland. The highest concentrations of biomass-burning tracers, such as monosaccharide anhydrides (levoglucosan + mannosan + galactosan) and K⁺, were observed during open biomass-burning episodes, but quite high values were also measured during some winter episodes due to wood combustion emissions. Our results indicate that open biomass burning in Eastern Europe causes high fine particle concentration peaks in large areas of Europe almost every year.