Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Leaching of cyanogenic glucosides and cyanide from white clover green manure

Use of crops for green manure as a substitute for chemical fertilizers and pesticides is an important approach towards more sustainable agricultural practices. Green manure from white clover is rich in nitrogen but white clover also produces the cyanogenic glucosides (CGs) linamarin and lotaustralin; CGs release toxic hydrogen cyanide (HCN) upon hydrolysis which may be utilized for pest control. We demonstrate that applying CGs in the form of a liquid extract of white clover to large columns of intact agricultural soils can result in leaching of toxic cyanide species to a depth of at least 1m. Although degradation of the CGs during leaching proceeded with half lives in the interval 1.5-35 h depending on soil characteristics, a fraction of the applied CGs (0.9-3.2%) was recovered in the leachate as either CGs or toxic cyanide species. Detoxification of the HCN formed was rapid in soil and leachate from both sandy and loamy soil. However, 30% of the leachate samples exceeded the EU threshold value of 50 micrgl(-1) total cyanide for drinking water and 85% exceeded the US threshold of 5 micrgl(-1) for cyanide chronic ecotoxicity in fresh water. This study demonstrates that even easily degradable natural products present in crop plants as defense compounds pose a threat to the quality of groundwater and surface waters. This aspect needs consideration in assessment of the risk associated with use of crops as green manure to replace chemical fertilizers and pesticides as well as in genetic engineering approaches to design crops with improved pest resistance.     

Oviposition of carrot fly (Psila rosae) in response to foliage and leaf surface extracts of host plants

Summary. Foliage of twelve host and two non-host species and surrogate leaves treated with the respective leaf extracts were presented to laboratory populations of the carrot fly (Psila rosae) in oviposition choice assays. The stimulatory activity of dichloromethane surface extracts and the diethyl ether fraction of hot water extracts did not reflect accurately the differences in acceptability observed among intact leaves. A better correlation was found using hexane extracts prepared in a microwave oven. Two out of five fractions of this crude hexane extract obtained by silica gel column chromatography stimulated oviposition. The diethyl ether fraction, which contained the previously identified oviposition stimulants (propenylbenzenes, furanocoumarins, polyacetylenes), could account for only a minor part of the variation in the acceptability of host leaves. The preference hierarchy for intact leaves corresponded better to the ranking of species according to activity of the methanolic fraction, which apparently contains unknown stimulatory compounds.? The water fractions of the hot water extracts were shown to reduce egg-laying underneath surrogate leaves treated with a stimulatory extract. This oviposition-deterring effect was particularly strong with the non-preferred species Pimpinella major, which is also highly resistant in the field. Hence, unidentified inhibitory compounds may also contribute to differential accept ability of host plants. It is concluded that antixenotic (non-preference) resistance of host plants to carrot fly attack depends on complex mixtures of semiochemicals. Received 11 June 1997; accepted 26 November 1997.     

Complex host marking in the cabbage root fly

Summary. The cabbage root fly marks an oviposition site with two different chemical messages. Plants that were exposed to ovipositing flies are less acceptable than control plants, while sand particles that were closely associated with an actual oviposition site stimulate oviposition. By combining the information from these opposing messages, the cabbage root fly may be able to optimise the size of its egg clusters in relation to the food available for the larvae. The findings might account for the aggregated oviposition observed in this species.     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Nutritionally relevant elements in staple foods: influence of arable site versus choice of variety

Eighteen representative sites for the Austrian grain-growing and eight for the potato-growing zones (soils and crops) were investigated. On each site, total element contents (B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, Sr and Zn) were determined in 4–12 varieties of winter wheat (n = 136), 6 varieties of spring durum wheat (n = 30), 5 varieties of winter durum wheat (n = 15), 7 varieties of rye (n = 49), 5 varieties of spring barley (n = 30) and 5 varieties of potatoes (n = 40). Element accumulations in grain species and potato tubers varied significantly with site conditions, with the main exceptions for B in potatoes and wheat as well as for Zn, Cu and Co in durum wheat. On average, across all investigated sites, differences in varieties occurred concerning the elements Ca, Cd, Ba, Sr and Zn (except Zn in potatoes and winter durum). A rough estimation revealed that an average Austrian consumer of wheat, rye and potatoes meets more than 50% of the needs of daily element intake for K, P and Mg, between 36 and 72% for Fe, Zn and Cu, and more than 100% for Co, Mo and Mn. In particular, the elements Ca and Na have to be added from other sources.     

A new neosuchian with Asian affinities from the Jurassic of northeastern Brazil

Phylogenetic relationships near the origin of extant crocodylians are weakly supported, and this lack of resolution makes for poor estimates of taxonomic and morphological diversity. Previously known taxa are found throughout the Cretaceous in Laurasia and at a few sites from Brazil, Australia, and northern Africa. Here, we report Batrachomimus pastosbonensis gen. et sp. nov. from the Late Jurassic of northeastern Brazil, which is deeply nested within Neosuchia and associated to the Cretaceous Asian paralligatorids. The new taxon predates all other members of Paralligatoridae and its immediate sister group (including Eusuchia) by 30 million years. A nearly complete skull, osteoderms, and limb bones were recovered, and autapomorphies of B. pastosbonensis include a scalloped lateral margin of the rostrum in dorsal view, unsculpted alveolar margin at the caudalmost portion of the maxilla, blunt lateral prongs on the jugal at the base of the postorbital bar, hourglass shaped choanae, and pterygoid choanal septum extended between the palatal shelves of the palatines. The crocodyloid-like skull proportions and the slender, conical teeth suggest an amphibious and piscivorous life history to this 1 m long animal.

     

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Environment Systems and Decisions -