Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?

Accelerated sea level rise may have serious implications for the Wadden Sea ecosystem in its present state. If sediment accumulation rates on the extensive intertidal flats stay behind sea level rise, the flats will eventually submerge. Drowning of the flats has negative consequences for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Based upon an evaluation of steady state relations for Wadden Sea tidal basins, Hofstede (Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie 59(3): 377-391, 2015) postulated that the capacity of these basins to balance sea level rise by accumulation on intertidal flats seems positively related to mean tidal range. In the present study, morphodynamical simulations with a numerical model were performed for two tidal basins in the German Wadden Sea to verify the empirically established hypothesis. The following conclusions are established. Larger mean tidal range improves the capacity of Wadden Sea tidal basins to balance sea level rise. Wadden Sea intertidal flats are effective sediment sinks and seem quite resilient against (higher rates of) sea level rise. Finally, subtidal gullies may constitute a significant sediment source for accumulation on intertidal flats in response to sea level rise. With respect to the limited comparability of the two investigated tidal systems, morphodynamical modelling of all Wadden Sea tidal systems should be conducted.     

The CPCAT as a novel tool to overcome the shortcomings of NOEC/LOEC statistics in ecotoxicology: a simulation study to evaluate the statistical power

Species reproduction is an important determinant of population dynamics. As such, this is an important parameter in environmental risk assessment. The closure principle computational approach test (CPCAT) was recently proposed as a method to derive a NOEC/LOEC for reproduction count data such as the number of juvenile Daphnia. The Poisson distribution used by CPCAT can be too restrictive as a model of the data-generating process. In practice, the generalized Poisson distribution could be more appropriate, as it allows for inequality of the population mean \(\mu\) and the population variance \(\sigma ^2\). It is of fundamental interest to explore the statistical power of CPCAT and the probability of determining a regulatory relevant effect correctly. Using a simulation, we varied between Poisson distribution (\(\mu =\sigma ^2\)) and generalized Poisson distribution allowing for over-dispersion (\(\mu <\sigma ^2\)) and under-dispersion (\(\mu >\sigma ^2\)). The results indicated that the probability of detecting the LOEC/NOEC correctly was \(\ge 0.8\) provided the effect was at least 20% above or below the mean level of the control group and mean reproduction of the control was at least 50 individuals while over-dispersion was missing. Specifically, under-dispersion increased, whereas over-dispersion reduced the statistical power of the CPCAT. Using the well-known Hampel identifier, we propose a simple and straight forward method to assess whether the data-generating process of real data could be over- or under-dispersed.     

Meta-analysis of susceptibility of woody plants to loss of genetic diversity through habitat fragmentation

Shrubs and trees are assumed less likely to lose genetic variation in response to habitat fragmentation because they have certain life-history characteristics such as long lifespans and extensive pollen flow. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis with data on 97 woody plant species derived from 98 studies of habitat fragmentation. We measured the weighted response of four different measures of population-level genetic diversity to habitat fragmentation with Hedge's d and Spearman rank correlation. We tested whether the genetic response to habitat fragmentation was mediated by life-history traits (longevity, pollination mode, and seed dispersal vector) and study characteristics (genetic marker and plant material used). For both tests of effect size habitat fragmentation was associated with a substantial decrease in expected heterozygosity, number of alleles, and percentage of polymorphic loci, whereas the population inbreeding coefficient was not associated with these measures. The largest proportion of variation among effect sizes was explained by pollination mechanism and by the age of the tissue (progeny or adult) that was genotyped. Our primary finding was that wind-pollinated trees and shrubs appeared to be as likely to lose genetic variation as insect-pollinated species, indicating that severe habitat fragmentation may lead to pollen limitation and limited gene flow. In comparison with results of previous meta-analyses on mainly herbaceous species, we found trees and shrubs were as likely to have negative genetic responses to habitat fragmentation as herbaceous species. We also found that the genetic variation in offspring was generally less than that of adult trees, which is evidence of a genetic extinction debt and probably reflects the genetic diversity of the historical, less-fragmented landscape.     

Ultrastructure of pedal muscle as a function of temperature in nacellid limpets

Temperature and mitochondrial plasticity are well studied in fishes, but little is known about this relationship in invertebrates. The effects of habitat temperature on mitochondrial ultrastructure were examined in three con-familial limpets from the Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), and Singapore (Cellana radiata). The effects of seasonal changes in temperature were also examined in winter and summer C. ornata. Stereological methods showed that limpet pedal myocytes were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller in diameter (≈3.5 μm) than in vertebrates, and that the diameter did not vary as a function of temperature. Mitochondrial volume density (Vv_(mt,f)) was approximately 2–4 times higher in N. concinna (0.024) than in the other species (0.01 and 0.006), which were not significantly different from each other. Mitochondrial cristae surface density (Sv_(im,mt)) was significantly lower in summer C. ornata (24.1 ± 0.50 μm² μm⁻³) than both winter C. ornata (32.3 ± 0.95 μm² μm⁻³) and N. concinna (34.3 ± 4.43 μm² μm⁻³). The surface area of mitochondrial cristae per unit fibre volume was significantly higher in N. concinna, due largely to the greater mitochondrial volume density. These results and previous studies indicate that mitochondrial proliferation in the cold is a common, but not universal response by different species from different thermal habitats. Seasonal temperature decreases on the other hand, leading preferentially to an increase in cristae surface density. Stereological measures also showed that energetic reserves, i.e. lipid droplets and glycogen in the pedal muscle changed greatly with season and species. This was most likely related to gametogenesis and spawning.     

Effect of metal accumulation on metallothionein level and condition of the periwinkle Littorina littorea along the Scheldt estuary (the Netherlands)

Metal (i.e. Ag, As, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn) and metallothionein (MT) concentrations in the soft tissue of Littorina littorea were measured along the heavily polluted Western Scheldt (WS) and relatively clean Eastern Scheldt (ES) estuary. Along the WS metal and MT levels in periwinkles reflected the known downstream decreasing pollution gradient. Surprisingly in ES animals As, Mn and Zn concentrations decreased from east to west reflecting past pollution. Compared to the WS metal concentrations of ES periwinkles were significantly lower and both estuaries were maximally discriminated from each other based on their Cd soft tissue concentration using a canonical discriminant analysis. Furthermore, no overall difference was found in MT levels among animals from both estuaries. Using previously obtained condition data (i.e. dry/wet weight ratio and lipid content) the relation between soft tissue metal concentration (i.e. Cd, Cu and Zn) and fitness indicators (i.e. MT and condition data) was examined using a canonical correlation analysis. Periwinkles with a high metal load (i.e. Cd and Zn) also had high MT levels but were in a relatively poor condition.     

Ecosystem response to climatic change: the importance of the cold season

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.     

Concentration of some heavy metals in organically grown primitive, old and modern wheat genotypes: implications for human health

The concentration of six HMs (Cd, Cr, Co, Pb, Hg and Ni) was analysed in 321 organically grown winter and spring wheat genotypes from six genotype groups, i.e. selections, old landraces, primitive wheat, spelt, old cultivars and cultivars. Also the potential risk of individual toxic HM to human health was estimated by using the Hazard Quotient (HQ). Significantly the lowest grain concentration of Cd was found in primitive wheat as compared to all other investigated genotype groups. Intake of HM by consumption of whole wheat grain was not found to pose a health risk to human for any of the investigated genotype groups. The bio-concentration factor of Cd for the different genotype groups indicated a lower ability to accumulate Cd for primitive wheat as compared to other genotype groups. The primitive wheat was found the most promising and might be of interest in future wheat breeding programs to develop wheat genotypes with low HMs concentration in the grain.     

Recovery of Soil Water,Groundwater, and Streamwater From Acidification at the Swedish Integrated Monitoring Catchments

Recovery from anthropogenic acidification in streams and lakes is well documented across the northern hemisphere. In this study, we use 1996–2009 data from the four Swedish Integrated Monitoring catchments to evaluate how the declining sulfur deposition has affected sulfate, pH, acid neutralizing capacity, ionic strength, aluminum, and dissolved organic carbon in soil water, groundwater and runoff. Differences in recovery rates between catchments, between recharge and discharge areas and between soil water and groundwater are assessed. At the IM sites, atmospheric deposition is the main human impact. The chemical trends were weakly correlated to the sulfur deposition decline. Other factors, such as marine influence and catchment features, seem to be as important. Except for pH and DOC, soil water and groundwater showed similar trends. Discharge areas acted as buffers, dampening the trends in streamwater. Further monitoring and modeling of these hydraulically active sites should be encouraged.     

The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geoengineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.     

Evaluation of Progress in Achieving TMDL Mandated Nitrogen Reductions in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina

Management efforts to control excess algal growth in the Neuse River and Estuary, North Carolina began in the 1980s, with an initial focus on phosphorus (P) input reduction. However, continued water quality problems in the 1990s led to development of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for nitrogen (N) in 1999 to improve conditions in N-sensitive estuarine waters. Evaluation of the effectiveness of management actions implemented in the Neuse River basin is a challenging endeavor due to natural variations in N export associated with climate. A simplified approach is presented that allows evaluation of trends in flow-normalized nutrient loading to provide feedback on effectiveness of implemented actions to reduce N loading to estuarine waters. The approach is applied to five watershed locations, including the headwaters of the Neuse Estuary. Decreases in nitrate + nitrite (NO₃–N) concentrations occurred throughout the basin and were largest just downstream of the Raleigh metropolitan area. Conversely, concentrations of total Kjeldahl N (TKN) increased at many stations, particularly under high flow conditions. This indicates a relative increase in organic N (Org-N) inputs since the mid-1990s. Overall, patterns in different N fractions at watershed stations indicate both partial success in reducing N inputs and ongoing challenges for N loading under high flow conditions. In downstream waters, NO₃–N concentrations decreased concurrent with TMDL implementation in the upper portion of the estuary but not in the middle and lower reaches. The lack of progress in the middle and lower reaches of the estuary may, at least in part, be affected by remineralization of settled particle-bound N deposited under high river flows.