Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Presence and partitioning properties of the flame retardants pentabromotoluene, pentabromoethylbenzene and hexabromobenzene near suspected source zones in Norway

The brominated flame retardants (BFRs), pentabromotoluene (PBT), pentabromoethylbenzene (PBEB) and hexabromobenzene (HBB), exhibit physical-chemical properties similar to other persistent organic pollutants, and have been in use as flame retardants for several decades. Data on these BFRs in diverse environmental samples can be found in studies from the 1970s and 1980s, as well as in recent years, though very little in the years in between. Due to a lack of data, the cause for the apparent re-emergence of these BFRs in recent studies is unclear, and could reflect changes in production volumes, accumulation of transformation products from BFR precursors, improved analytical techniques or simply a re-emergence in concern. Very little data are available on their environmentally relevant partitioning properties, which could help to explain the occurrence and fate of these BFRs. In this study we analysed for the presence of HBB, PBT, and PBEB in diverse environmental samples from potential Norwegian BFR source zones. Additionally, environmental partitioning properties of these BFRs as well as brominated benzenes were estimated and validated using experimental data for brominated benzenes. Of the three BFRs, HBB was identified in detectable quantities at most source zones, PBEB only near a metal recycling factory, and PBT only in a few additional locations from where PBEB was detected. Data from this study show that HBB is likely widely distributed, as verified both by chemical analysis and estimated properties. Measured HBB levels in wastewater treatment plants indicate that the treatment practices used in the study locations are not effective at lowering HBB levels, perhaps due to association with low density suspended solids (e.g. microplastics).     

Advanced REACH Tool (ART): calibration of the mechanistic model

The mechanistic model of the Advanced Reach Tool (ART) provides a relative ranking of exposure levels from different scenarios. The objectives of the calibration described in this paper are threefold: to study whether the mechanistic model scores are accurately ranked in relation to exposure measurements; to enable the mechanistic model to estimate actual exposure levels rather than relative scores; and to provide a method of quantifying model uncertainty. Stringent data quality guidelines were applied to the collated data. Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between relative ART model scores and measurements. A random scenario and company component of variance were introduced to reflect the model uncertainty. Stratified analyses were conducted for different forms of exposure (abrasive dust, dust, vapours and mists). In total more than 2000 good quality measurements were available for the calibration of the mechanistic model. The calibration showed that after calibration the mechanistic model of ART was able to estimate geometric mean (GM) exposure levels with 90% confidence for a given scenario to lie within a factor between two and six of the measured GM depending upon the form of exposure.     

Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Evidence for Acidification-Driven Ecosystem Collapse of Danish Erica tetralix Wet Heathland

We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0251-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.     

Impact of mineral components and selected trace metals on ambient PM10 concentrations

PM10 levels of the mineral components Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg and some trace metals were measured at three different sites in the urban area of Vienna (Austria). Observed trace metal concentrations varied between less than 0.1 ng m^?3 (Cd) and approximately 200 ng m^?3 (Zn), mineral components showed enhanced concentrations ranging from 0.01 μg m^?3 (Ca) to 16.3 μg m^?3 (Si). The contribution of the respective mineral oxides to PM10 mass concentrations accounted on average for 26.4 ± 16% (n = 1090) of the PM10 mass, with enhanced rates in spring and autumn (monthly averages of up to 40%) and decreased contributions in the cold season (monthly averages below 10%). The atmospheric occurrence of Al, Ti and Sr could be assigned to crustal sources, whereas for the elements Ba, Ca, Fe, Mg, Mn and V an increased contribution of non-crustal origin was observed. PM10 levels of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sn and Zn were predominantly derived from man-made emissions. Intersite comparison indicated that urban PM10 mass concentrations and PM10 levels of As, Pb and Zn were predominantly influenced from the transport of aerosols from outside into the city, whereas for the elements Ba, Mg, Ca, Cu and Fe a distinctly increased impact of local emissions was observed. The contribution of these urban emissions to total PM10 concentrations was estimated by calculating the so-called “urban impact”, which was found to be 32.7 ± 18% (n = 392) in the case of PM10 mass concentrations. The investigated elements accounted on average for 31.3 ± 19% (n = 392) of the observed PM10 mass increase. The mean values for the “urban impacts” of individual elements varied between 25.5% (As) and 77.0% (Ba).     

Degassing of H/He, CFCs and SF6 by denitrification: Measurements and two-phase transport simulations

The production of N₂ gas by denitrification may lead to the appearance of a gas phase below the water table prohibiting the conservative transport of tracer gases required for groundwater dating. We used a two-phase flow and transport model (STOMP) to study the reliability of ³H/³He, CFCs and SF₆ as groundwater age tracers under agricultural land where denitrification causes degassing. We were able to reproduce the amount of degassing (R² = 69%), as well as the ³H (R² = 79%) and ³He (R² = 76%) concentrations observed in a ³H/³He data set using simple 2D models. We found that the TDG correction of the ³H/³He age overestimated the control ³He/³He age by 2.1 years, due to the accumulation of ³He in the gas phase. The total uncertainty of degassed ³H/³He ages of 6 years (± 2 σ) is due to the correction of degassed ³He using the TDG method, but also due to the travel time in the unsaturated zone and the diffusion of bomb peak ³He. CFCs appear to be subject to significant degradation in anoxic groundwater and SF₆ is highly susceptible to degassing. We conclude that ³H/³He is the most reliable method to date degassed groundwater and that two-phase flow models such as STOMP are useful tools to assist in the interpretation of degassed groundwater age tracer data.