Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Safety challenges in view of the upcoming hydrogen economy: An overview

If produced and arranged in the right way with carbon dioxide as a possible but permanently removed by-product, hydrogen as a new, large scale, applicable energy carrier promises significant reductions of carbon dioxide emissions. It is light, non-toxic, and clean burning. In different parts of the world, viz. United States, Japan, and Europe, programs have started some years ago to investigate hazardous properties of hydrogen in more detail and to develop special safety measures where necessary. Recently, in September 2009, the third International Conference on Hydrogen Safety (3rd ICHS) was held at Corsica, France. CFD tools have been adapted to describe hydrogen dispersion and explosion. Field tests have been carried out, an incident databank has been founded, knowledge gaps were defined, and risk analysis methods reviewed. The latter are required for drafting installation guidelines and measures for safe distances in land-use planning and licensing of hydrogen storage locations, pipelines, and re-fuelling stations. Yet some challenges remain. The paper will summarize present results and will address hydrogen related issues where more knowledge is needed to reduce uncertainty and improve the quality of risk control.     

Degassing of H/He, CFCs and SF6 by denitrification: Measurements and two-phase transport simulations

The production of N₂ gas by denitrification may lead to the appearance of a gas phase below the water table prohibiting the conservative transport of tracer gases required for groundwater dating. We used a two-phase flow and transport model (STOMP) to study the reliability of ³H/³He, CFCs and SF₆ as groundwater age tracers under agricultural land where denitrification causes degassing. We were able to reproduce the amount of degassing (R² = 69%), as well as the ³H (R² = 79%) and ³He (R² = 76%) concentrations observed in a ³H/³He data set using simple 2D models. We found that the TDG correction of the ³H/³He age overestimated the control ³He/³He age by 2.1 years, due to the accumulation of ³He in the gas phase. The total uncertainty of degassed ³H/³He ages of 6 years (± 2 σ) is due to the correction of degassed ³He using the TDG method, but also due to the travel time in the unsaturated zone and the diffusion of bomb peak ³He. CFCs appear to be subject to significant degradation in anoxic groundwater and SF₆ is highly susceptible to degassing. We conclude that ³H/³He is the most reliable method to date degassed groundwater and that two-phase flow models such as STOMP are useful tools to assist in the interpretation of degassed groundwater age tracer data.     

Impact of mineral components and selected trace metals on ambient PM10 concentrations

PM10 levels of the mineral components Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg and some trace metals were measured at three different sites in the urban area of Vienna (Austria). Observed trace metal concentrations varied between less than 0.1 ng m^?3 (Cd) and approximately 200 ng m^?3 (Zn), mineral components showed enhanced concentrations ranging from 0.01 μg m^?3 (Ca) to 16.3 μg m^?3 (Si). The contribution of the respective mineral oxides to PM10 mass concentrations accounted on average for 26.4 ± 16% (n = 1090) of the PM10 mass, with enhanced rates in spring and autumn (monthly averages of up to 40%) and decreased contributions in the cold season (monthly averages below 10%). The atmospheric occurrence of Al, Ti and Sr could be assigned to crustal sources, whereas for the elements Ba, Ca, Fe, Mg, Mn and V an increased contribution of non-crustal origin was observed. PM10 levels of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sn and Zn were predominantly derived from man-made emissions. Intersite comparison indicated that urban PM10 mass concentrations and PM10 levels of As, Pb and Zn were predominantly influenced from the transport of aerosols from outside into the city, whereas for the elements Ba, Mg, Ca, Cu and Fe a distinctly increased impact of local emissions was observed. The contribution of these urban emissions to total PM10 concentrations was estimated by calculating the so-called “urban impact”, which was found to be 32.7 ± 18% (n = 392) in the case of PM10 mass concentrations. The investigated elements accounted on average for 31.3 ± 19% (n = 392) of the observed PM10 mass increase. The mean values for the “urban impacts” of individual elements varied between 25.5% (As) and 77.0% (Ba).     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.     

Particles in swimming pool filters--does pH determine the DBP formation?

The formation was investigated for different groups of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) during chlorination of filter particles from swimming pools at different pH-values and the toxicity was estimated. Specifically, the formation of the DBP group trihalomethanes (THMs), which is regulated in many countries, and the non-regulated haloacetic acids (HAAs) and haloacetonitriles (HANs) were investigated at 6.0≤pH≤8.0, under controlled chlorination conditions. The investigated particles were collected from a hot tub with a drum micro filter. In two series of experiments with either constant initial active or initial free chlorine concentrations the particles were chlorinated at different pH-values in the relevant range for swimming pools. THM and HAA formations were reduced by decreasing pH while HAN formation increased with decreasing pH. Based on the organic content the relative DBP formation from the particles was higher than previously reported for body fluid analogue and filling water. The genotoxicity and cytotoxicity estimated from formation of DBPs from the treated particle suspension increased with decreasing pH. Among the quantified DBP groups the HANs were responsible for the majority of the toxicity from the measured DBPs.     

Evidence for Acidification-Driven Ecosystem Collapse of Danish Erica tetralix Wet Heathland

We report observations of disappearance of Erica tetralix in wet heathland, which is unlikely to be caused by competition, as E. tetralix is dying before its place is taken up by other species. To investigate the causes, we used both old and new data. Results showed that presence of Molinia caerulea and Calluna vulgaris were substantial in the former E. tetralix dominated areas. Measurements of the C/N ratio in the morlayer were between 21 and 26 under the E. tetralix stands. As the expected C/N ratio in a healthy nutrient poor ecosystem like the E. tetralix wet heathland is around 30, this indicates that the ratio is probably decreasing and, correspondingly, the probability of nitrogen leaching from the ecosystem is increasing. The morlayer pH was extremely low—between 3.03 and 3.78. This represents a pH decline since the 1960s, where pH values generally were above 4. This supports the hypothesis that the decrease in morlayer pH is the major factor explaining the disappearance of E. tetralix and that measures to increase pH should be considered as part of the recommendations for relevant future management.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0251-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Development and verification of a toxicokinetic model of polychlorinated biphenyl elimination in persons working in a contaminated building

BACKGROUND: Polychlorinated biphenyls are toxic and slowly degrading substances that have been in widespread industrial use in the 1960s and 1970s. Despite a worldwide reduction, environmental exposure remains an issue; the assessment of an individual's level of exposure at a given time in retrospect requires valid toxicokinetic modeling of the different PCB congeners. OBJECTIVES: To develop and verify a toxicokinetic model of the in vivo-degradation of PCB 28 and 52 in adult humans. METHODS: The plasma concentrations of PCB congeners were measured in 583 persons working in a contaminated building for an average of 14.7+/-9.6 years. The values were adapted to a simple pharmacokinetic model (yt = y0 x (1 - e(-kt))); the steady state concentration y0 was estimated based on the median values of persons working exposed more than 10 years. RESULTS: The steady state concentration of PCB 28 was 0.10 microg/l, that of PCB 52 0.02 microg/l. The half-life of the congeners was estimated based on a logarithmic regression analysis according to the model mentioned above; it was 2.18 (95% CI: 1.91-2.54) years for PCB 28 and 3.95 (95% CI: 3.55-4.45) years for PCB 52, respectively. Stepwise elimination of persons with very long employment duration did not reduce the estimated half-life. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated half-life is higher than previously published data especially for PCB 52. Possible reasons and implications of this finding are discussed.