Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus

Drought in the northern part of Cyprus has become a recurrent phenomenon. In the last few decades, Cyprus has experienced significantly severe drought events occurring periodically, and this trend is now continuing. With rainfall distribution varying considerably across the region and frequent drought conditions, the water resources, agriculture, economy and the environment have been adversely affected. This study aims to investigate spatial–temporal characteristic of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (3, 6 and 12 months). Monthly time series of 36 years (1977–2013) rainfall data from nine weather stations are used to derive SPI values. Based on different drought categories, this study focuses on propagation of drought from one timescale to another and estimating critical rainfall values during moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions. The analysis revealed that there is a strong correlation among different timescales in detecting drought events. On average, 79 and 78% of 3-month timescale drought propagated into 6- and 12-month drought events, respectively, while 90% of 6-month timescale drought events propagated into 12-month drought events. The derived critical rainfall value for extreme droughts over a 12-month timescale was less than 255 mm/year in the town of Alsancak, while for Guzelyurt, a major citrus growing city, this figure was less than 135 mm/year. The results are validated through drought events detected at various regions of the Mediterranean basin and local flood occurrences during the wet periods and decline in water tables at drought seasons.     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

Between Active Seekers and Non-Users: Segments of Science-related Media Usage in Switzerland and Germany

ABSTRACT

Citizens’ attitudes toward science are related to their use of science-related information from various sources. Evidence is scarce regarding citizens’ individual media repertoires for staying informed about science as segmentation studies so far have primarily focused on scientific attitudes. In this paper, we explore audience segments regarding their science-related information behavior and whether such segments are comparable or vary between two countries with similar information environments. Based on two surveys in Switzerland and Germany, we identify national audience segments that differ in their science-related information repertoires, and analyze their sociodemographic characteristics and science-related attitudes. In both countries, we find very comparable information user segments ranging from those who inform themselves frequently about science (“Active Seekers”/“Science Consumers”) to those who hardly get in contact with any information about science and research (“Non-Users”). Those segments which get in contact with information about science frequently show generally more positive attitudes.     

Development of an efficient and sensitive analytical method for the determination of copper at trace levels by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after vortex-assisted dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction in biota and water samples using a novel ligand

This study describes the determination of trace levels of copper by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction. A ligand synthesized from the reaction of salicylaldehyde and 1-naphthylamine was used to form coordinate copper complex prior to extraction. All parameters that influence the output of complex formation, extraction, and instrumental measurement were optimized to enhance the absorbance signal of copper. Under the optimum conditions, about 104-fold enhancement in sensitivity was recorded over the conventional flame atomic absorption spectrometer, corresponding to a 0.51 ng/mL detection limit. The percent relative standard deviation calculated for the lowest concentration (4.8%) indicated high precision for the experimental procedure. Accuracy and applicability of the optimum method were determined by performing spiked recovery tests on urine, lake water, and mineral water samples. Satisfactory recovery results were obtained between 82.2 and 106.3% at four different concentrations. Matrix matching method was also performed to increase the accuracy of quantification, and the percent recovery calculated for 175 ng/mL was 105.14%.     

Experimental arid land afforestation in Central Anatolia,Turkey

The afforestation of arid lands faces many challenges, and perhaps the most important key for success is choosing one or more species that are adapted well for local environmental conditions. We explored species that would be suitable for the steppe region of Central Anatolia. Intensive site preparation included ripping the subsoil (to 80 cm) and plowing the upper soil before planting seedlings of Elaeagnus angustifolia, Robinia pseudoacacia, Fraxinus angustifolia, and Pinus nigra were used as tree species. We also tested the success of several shrub species: Amygdalus orientalis, Calligonum polygonoides, and Spartium junceum. After five growing seasons, E. angustifolia showed the highest survival, with 80% of planted seedlings remaining. For the shrubs, A. orientalis was the most successful species with a 95% survival rate. Broad-leaved trees grew a cumulative average of 34 cm in height in 5 years, whereas P. nigra seedings grew only 9 cm. The greatest height growth occurred in the shrubs, with A. orientalis gaining 40 cm in height in 5 years. Overall, E. angustifolia and A. orientalis appeared best suited for afforestation in these areas. R. pseodoacacia and F. angustifolia may also be used as alternative species.     

Photochemical and meteorological relationships during the Texas-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP)

The Moody Tower measurement site at the University of Houston experienced several large ozone events during the Texas-II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP) campaign between 13 Aug–02 Oct, 2006. This rooftop site samples that atmosphere 70 m a.g.l. and consequently is less susceptible to local surface emissions. Several high-ozone episodes encountered at Moody Tower during the TRAMP campaign were preceded one to two days earlier by a cold front passage, creating a situation where polluted air is transported from the North interacts with local Houston emissions and with light local winds. High quality CO measurements were good indicators of long range transport of pollution and/or biomass burning. During TRAMP there were also 4 periods with low “background” CO characterized by southerly winds, overcast conditions and low NOx and O₃ mixing ratios. The summer and fall of 2000 was an unusually hot period in Houston with considerably higher ozone levels than the 2000–2007 climatology. The 2006 TRAMP time period is more representative of the typical conditions for these 8 years. Over the time period from 1991 to 2009 the number of 8-h ozone episode days in Houston has decreased, as have the peak 1-h ozone mixing ratios. It is not possible from this analysis to demonstrate whether these improvements in Houston air quality are due to reductions in NOx levels, VOCs levels, and/or changes in meteorology.     

Evaluation of a detailed model of secondary organic aerosol formation from α-pinene against dark ozonolysis experiments

BOREAM, a detailed model for the gas-phase oxidation of α-pinene and its subsequent formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), is tested against a large set of SOA yield measurements obtained in dark ozonolysis experiments. For the majority of experiments, modelled SOA yields are found to agree with measured yields to within a factor 2. However, the comparisons point to a general underestimation of modelled SOA yields at high temperatures (above 30 °C), reaching an order of magnitude or more in the worst cases, whereas modelled SOA yields are often overestimated at lower temperature (by a factor of about 2). Comparisons of results obtained using four different vapour pressure prediction methods indicate a strong sensitivity to the choice of the method, although the overestimated temperature dependence of the yields is found in all cases. Accounting for non-ideality of the aerosol mixture (based on an adapted UNIFAC method) has significant effects, especially at low yields. Our simulations show that the formation of oligomers through the gas-phase reactions of Stabilised Criegee Intermediates (SCI) with other molecular organic products could increase the SOA yield significantly only at very low relative humidity (below 1%). Further tests show that the agreement between model and measurements is improved when the ozonolysis mechanism includes additional production of non-volatile compounds.     

Air pollution characteristics associated with mesoscale atmospheric patterns in northwest continental Europe

An impact related daily air quality index (DAQx), calculated for 15 air quality monitoring stations (traffic, background, and industry) in Belgium, France, Germany and Luxembourg, was compared to mesoscale atmospheric patterns between 2001 and 2007. Meteorological conditions were described by the Hess and Brezowsky synoptic weather classification system and gridded data of the EU FP6 ENSEMBLES project of total precipitation and mean surface temperature. DAQx values indicate sufficient to poor air quality in the urban area of Brussels and at urban traffic stations, as well as satisfactory air quality at the background stations. The air quality index refers to more than 90% to the presence of high PM₁₀, O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. SO₂ and CO play only a minor role. The investigation of weather regimes indicates that zonal and mixed cyclonic circulation regimes are associated with better air quality than meridional and anticyclonic weather regimes. In general, weather regimes with high daily precipitation lead to better air quality than dryer air masses because of lower contribution of PM₁₀ to the air quality index. A trend analysis of weather regimes from 1978 to 2007 shows significant (α = 0.05) positive trends for weather classes associated with lower PM₁₀ concentrations. The results of a case study at a German station examining the relationship between PM₁₀ concentrations and local meteorological quantities (wind speed and precipitation) confirm the results of the regional analysis.