Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe

To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large‐scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red‐list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional‐odds linear mixed‐effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red‐list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad‐leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad‐leaved forests to dense conifer‐dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad‐leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas.     

Teil 1: PCDD/F in Böden,Vegetation und Kuhmilch

Soil samples were taken from residential gardens, grasslands and forests at 22 locations in Marsberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, and analyzed for PCDD/F. Sampling was concentrated on the vicinity of a former copper smelter where copper waste material (calledKieselrot) was deposited and emissions from former stacks contaminated a large land area. Maximum PCDD/F-concentrations were 407 ng TE GBA/kg dm in garden soil (0–30 cm depth), 98 ng TE BGA/kg dm in agricultural grassland (0–10 cm depth), 227 ng TE BGA/kg dm in wasteland, and up to 8073 ng TE BGA/kg dm in forest soils. PCDD/F-levels in soil decreased with increasing distance from the former sources providing a large historic emission problem, apart from the still existing kieselrot waste site. Ash residues from former flue gas duct showed up to 2,4 mg TE BGA/kg dm. PCDD/F-concentrations in vegetable samples from highly contaminated garden soils and grass from agricultural grassland were found to be relatively low in relation to soil values. PCDD/F-levels in salad showed a mean of 2,2 ng TE BGA/kg dm while grass concentrations were <6 ng TE BGA/kg dm. Thus, no correlation was found between soil and vegetation values with the exception for carrot roots where obviously a small transfer of PCDD/F between the two media took place. PCDD/F-content in grass taken over the vegetation period showed a tendency to increase toward the end of the growing season, which is probably related to changes in the dry matter yield over the season. No correlation was found in general between soil, grass and milk PCDD/F contents when all samples were taken from the same grassland. PCDD/F-concentrations in milk ranged between 0,6 and 1,1 pg TE BGA/g milkfat and were thus in the same range as consumer milk in the Federal Republic of Germany. PCDD/F in needles from conifers showed a clear relationship with respect to distance from the former waste site. The relatively high levels in conifer needles [36 ng TE BGA/kg dm] were obviously due to sporting activities (i.e. motocross racing where contaminated material was resuspended and deposited on surrounding trees).     

Are naked and common mole-rats eusocial and if so, why?

Eusociality in mammals is defined in the present paper by the following criteria: reproductive altruism (which involves reproductive division of labor and cooperative alloparental brood care), overlap of adult generations, and permanent (lifelong) philopatry. We argue that additional criteria such as the existence of castes, colony size, reproductive skew, and social cohesion are not pertinent to the definition of eusociality in mammals. According to our definition of mammalian eusociality, several rodent species of the African family Bathyergidae can be considered eusocial, including the naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber), Damaraland mole-rat (Cryptomys damarensis), and several additional, if not all, species in the genus Cryptomys. Furthermore, some species of social voles (like Microtus ochrogaster) may also fulfill criteria of mammalian eusociality. Understanding the evolution of eusociality in mole-rats requires answers to two primary questions: (1) What are the preconditions for the development of their eusocial systems? (2) Why do offspring remain in the natal group rather than dispersing and reproducing? Eusociality in mammals is by definition a special case of monogamy (more specifically: monogyny one female breeding), involving prolonged pair bonding for more than one breeding period. We argue that eusociality in mole-rats evolved from a monogamous mating system where cooperative brood care was already established. A tendency for group living is considered to be an ancestral (plesiomorph) trait among African bathyergid mole-rats, linking them to other hystricognath rodents. A solitary lifestyle seen in some genera, such as Bathyergus, Georychus, and Heliophobius, is assumed to be a derived trait that arose independently in different lineages of bathyergids, possibly as a consequence of selective constraints associated with the subterranean environment. In proximate terms, in eusocial mole-rats either puberty is assumed to be developmentally delayed so that under natural conditions most animals die before dispersal is triggered (e.g., in the case of Heterocephalus) or dispersal is induced only by an incidental encounter with an unfamiliar, yet adequate sexual partner (e.g., in the case of Cryptomys). Ultimately, a combination of strategies involving either dispersal and/or philopatry can be beneficial, especially in a highly unpredictable environment. If genetic relatedness among siblings is high (e.g., a coefficient of relatedness of 0.5 or more), then philopatry would not invoke an appreciable loss of fitness, especially if the cost of dispersing is higher than staying within the natal group. High genetic relatedness is more likely in a monogamous mating system or a highly inbred population. In this paper, we argue that the preconditions for eusociality in bathyergid mole-rats were a monogamous mating system and high genetic relatedness among individuals. We argue against the aridity food-distribution hypothesis (AFDH) that suggests a causal relationship between cooperative foraging for patchily distributed resources and the origin of eusociality. The AFDH may explain group size dynamics of social mole-rats as a function of the distribution and availability of resources but it is inadequate to explain the formation of eusocial societies of mole-rats, especially with respect to providing preconditions conducive for the emergence of eusociality.     

Gentoxische Substanzen in Wässern

Waste waters with genotoxic potential are produced in various technical processes. Diffuse sources such as traffic and agriculture as well as point sources as mining, power plants, waste and waste water treatment facilities may emit water which shows mutagenic activity in bacteria test systems. A variety of compounds is known as mutagenes but in case studies it was not possible to assign the mutagenic potential of water to specific compounds. The chlorination and ozonation of drinking water may also generate genotoxic and cancerogenic compounds but at present it is not possible to assess the health risk of various drinking water disinfection methods.     

Time-dependent shifts between infanticidal and parental behavior in female burying beetles a mechanism of indirect mother-offspring recognition

Summary Female burying beetles Necrophorus vespilloides Herbst (Coleoptera: Silphidae) were allowed to lay eggs on a carcass and their subsequent behavior towards larvae added to the carcass was observed. Females did not discriminate against unrelated larvae if these were added within an hour after the females' own first larva had hatched (at the right time). Changing the spatial surroundings of the carcass had no effect on the females' readiness to exhibit care behavior. Neither did the age of the larvae added or the condition of the carcass affect the onset of maternal care. However, the females' response to larvae encountered was strongly time-dependent: most females killed and ate larvae that could not have hatched from their own eggs because they were added long before their own larvae hatched. The proportion of females accepting larvae added to early increased as the time their own larvae hatched approached. Larvae added to the carcass 2 or 3 days after the test females' own first larva had hatched were always accepted by females that had already started to feed larvae, but were often killed by females that were not feeding larvae. In the latter group of females, the tendency to kill larvae added was most pronounced if the females had already started to produce a second clutch of eggs at the time larvae were added. Offprint requests to: J.K. Müller