Adapting forest health assessments to changing perspectives on threats—a case example from Sweden

A revised Swedish forest health assessment system is presented. The assessment system is composed of several interacting components which target information needs for strategic and operational decision making and accommodate a continuously expanding knowledge base. The main motivation for separating information for strategic and operational decision making is that major damage outbreaks are often scattered throughout the landscape. Generally, large-scale inventories (such as national forest inventories) cannot provide adequate information for mitigation measures. In addition to broad monitoring programs that provide time-series information on known damaging agents and their effects, there is also a need for local and regional inventories adapted to specific damage events. While information for decision making is the major focus of the health assessment system, the system also contributes to expanding the knowledge base of forest conditions. For example, the integrated monitoring programs provide a better understanding of ecological processes linked to forest health. The new health assessment system should be able to respond to the need for quick and reliable information and thus will be an important part of the future monitoring of Swedish forests.     

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year^?1 for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year^?1 for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.     

A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies

The resulting impact of disasters on society depends on the affected country's economic strength prior to the disaster. The larger the disaster and the smaller the economy, the more significant is the impact. This is clearest seen in developing countries, where weak economies become even weaker afterwards. Deliberate strategies for the sharing of losses from hazardous events may aid a country or a community in efficiently using scarce prevention and mitigation resources, thus being better prepared for the effects of a disaster. Nevertheless, many governments lack an adequate institutional system for applying cost effective and reliable technologies for disaster prevention, early warnings, and mitigation. Modelling by event analyses and strategy models is one way of planning ahead, but these models have so far not been linked together. An approach to this problem was taken during a large study in Hungary, the Tisza case study, where a number of policy strategies for spreading of flood loss were formulated. In these strategies, a set of parameters of particular interest were extracted from interviews with stakeholders in the region. However, the study was focused on emerging economies, and, in particular, on insurance strategies. The scope is now extended to become a functional framework also for developing countries. In general, they have a higher degree of vulnerability. The paper takes northern Vietnam as an example of a developing region. We identify important parameters and discuss their importance for flood strategy formulations. Based on the policy strategies in the Tisza case, we extract data from the strategies and propose a framework for loss spread in developing and emerging economies. The parameter set can straightforwardly be included in a simulation and decision model for policy formulation and evaluation, taking multiple stakeholders into account.     

Feeding rates of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita on fish larvae

We quantified feeding rates of field caught Aurelia aurita feeding on yolk sac cod (Gadus morhua) larvae in a series of incubation experiments. A short-time (~1 h) functional response experiment with a wide range of prey concentrations (0.5–16 prey l⁻¹, initial concentration) revealed that ingestion rates increased linearly over this range, such that clearance rates were similar between the different prey concentrations. This suggests that A. aurita is capable of efficiently utilizing dense prey patches. This indication was further supported by a linear increase of prey captured by A. aurita during 2.5 h of feeding at extremely high prey concentration (>200 prey l⁻¹). Clearance rate in darkness scaled with jellyfish diameter to a power of ~1.7 for jellyfish 3.9–9.5 cm in diameter. The jellyfish did not alter their umbrella pulse frequency in response to presence of fish larvae. There were no significant differences between A. aurita feeding rates in light and darkness for yolk sac prey ages 0–7 days (at 7.5°C). Although prey vision and escape abilities of fish may develop rapidly during early larval ontogeny, these factors apparently have little impact on interactions with predators such as A. aurita during the yolk sac stage.     

Risk management—the Swedish way(s)

We have compared three legal and administrative systems of risk management in Sweden, namely those responsible for work environment, environmental protection and chemicals control. Large differences were found in terms of the organisational structure and the general modi operandi of government activities in the three areas. Many of these differences seem to be the result not of deliberate choice, but rather of the lack of coordination between policy areas. One of the most striking differences is the much lower priority assigned to enforcement activities in the environmental than in the occupational health sector. It is concluded that systematic comparisons of experiences from different policy areas can be helpful in improving the efficiency of risk management.     

Pooled Analysis of Two Swedish Case-Control Studies on the Use of Mobile and Cordless Telephones and the Risk of Brain Tumours Diagnosed During 1997–2003

Here we present the pooled analysis of 2 case–control studies on the association of brain tumours with mobile phone use. Use of analogue cellular phones increased the risk for acoustic neuroma by 5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2-9% per 100 hrs of use. The risk increased for astrocytoma grade III—IV with latency period with highest estimates using >10-year time period from first use of these phone types. The risk increased per one year of use of analogue phones by 10%, 95% CI = 6-14%, digital phones by 11%, 95% CI = 6-16%, and cordless phones by 8%, 95% CI = 5-12%. For all studied phone types OR for brain tumours, mainly acoustic neuroma and malignant brain tumours, increased with latency period, especially for astrocytoma grade III—IV.     

罗斯比中心区域气候模型Ⅰ:对当前欧洲气候的气候学及性能模拟

描述了罗斯比中心区域气候模型(RCA2)并依据观测评估了其对整个欧洲当前气候的模拟结果.指出了模型平均气候和气候变率中的系统偏差,确定了关键参数化的缺欠.对一些近地面参数,尤其是温度、降水、地表能量收支和云量进行了较为详细的研究.模型模拟的最近的气候和变率与真实情况高度吻合.强调了地表辐射收支分量的补偿误差,这些偏差的基本原因追溯到云、降水和辐射参数化的相关方面.模型有过于频繁产生小量级降水的倾向,这直接影响到云-辐射相互作用和地表温度的模拟.在评估由分析的边界条件驱动的高分辨率RCM时,对观测结果的使用要非常小心.当考虑到降水和云量时更是如此,因为观测的不确定性经常大于RCM的偏差.     

Comparative health impact assessment of local and regional particulate air pollutants in Scandinavia

The ongoing program Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is an initiative from the EU Commission to establish a coordinated effort to reach better air quality in the EU. The focus is on particulate matter as it has been shown to have large impact on human health. CAFE requested that WHO make a review of the latest findings on air pollutants and health to facilitate assessments of the different air pollutants and their health effects. The WHO review project on health aspects of air pollution in Europe confirmed that exposure to particulate matter (PM), despite the lower levels we face today, still poses a significant risk to human health. Using the recommended uniform risk coefficients for health impact assessment of PM, regardless of sources, premature mortality related to long-range transported anthropogenic particles has been estimated to be about 3500 deaths per year for the Swedish population, corresponding to a reduction in life expectancy of up to about seven months. The influence of local sources is more difficult to estimate due to large uncertainties when linking available risk coefficients to exposure data, but the estimates indicate about 1800 deaths brought forward each year with a life expectancy reduction of about 2-3 months. However, some sectors of the population are exposed to quite high locally induced concentrations and are likely to suffer excessive reductions in life expectancy. Since the literature increasingly supports assumptions that combustion related particles are associated with higher relative risks, further studies may shift the focus for abatement strategies. CAFE sets out to establish a general cost effective abatement strategy for atmospheric particles. Our results, based on studies of background exposure, show that long-range transported sulfate rich particles dominate the health effects of PM in Sweden. The same results would be found for the whole of Scandinavia and many countries influenced by transboundary air pollution. However, several health studies, including epidemiological studies with a finer spatial resolution, indicate that engine exhaust particles are more damaging to health than other particles. These contradictory findings must be understood and source specific risk estimates have to be established by expert bodies, otherwise it will not be possible to find the most cost effective abatement strategy for Europe. We are not happy with today's situation where every strategy to reduce PM concentrations is estimated to have the same impact per unit change in the mass concentration. Obviously there is a striking need to introduce more specific exposure variables and a higher geographical resolution in epidemiology as well as in health impact assessments.