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31.
Modeling recovery of Swedish ecosystems from acidification 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Dynamic models complement existing time series of observations and static critical load calculations by simulating past and future development of chemistry in forest and lake ecosystems. They are used for dynamic assessment of the acidification and to produce target load functions, that describe what combinations of nitrogen and sulfur emission reductions are needed to achieve a chemical or biological criterion in a given target year. The Swedish approach has been to apply the dynamic acidification models MAGIC, to 133 lakes unaffected by agriculture and SAFE, to 645 productive forest sites. While the long-term goal is to protect 95% of the area, implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will protect approximately 75% of forest soils in the long term. After 2030, recovery will be very slow and involve only a limited geographical area. If there had been no emission reductions after 1980, 87% of the forest area would have unwanted soil status in the long term. In 1990, approximately 17% of all Swedish lakes unaffected by agriculture received an acidifying deposition above critical load. This fraction will decrease to 10% in 2010 after implementation of the Gothenburg protocol. The acidified lakes of Sweden will recover faster than the soils. According to the MAGIC model the median pre-industrial ANC of 107 microeq L(-1) in acid sensitive lakes decreased to about 60 microeq L(-1) at the peak of the acidification (1975-1990) and increases to 80 microeq L(-1) by 2010. Further increases were small, only 2 microeq L(-1) between 2010 and 2040. Protecting 95% of the lakes will require further emission reductions below the Gothenburg protocol levels. More than 7000 lakes are limed regularly in Sweden and it is unlikely that this practice can be discontinued in the near future without adverse effects on lake chemistry and biology. 相似文献
32.
Peter Wimmer Michael Düring Henri Chajmowicz Fredrik Granum Julian King Harald Kolk 《Traffic injury prevention》2019,20(4):S139-S145
AbstractObjective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety. 相似文献
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Brenda Maria Zoderer Paola Sabina Lupo Stanghellini Erich Tasser Janette Walde Harald Wieser Ulrike Tappeiner 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(7):2033-2044
The socio-cultural assessment of ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for eliciting people’s preferences towards ecosystem services. Despite an increasing integration of the socio-cultural perspective in ecosystem service research, little knowledge exists about linkages between landscape and the socio-cultural values people assign to ecosystem services. This paper combines a socio-cultural valuation approach with the use of landscape pictures to analyse and compare people’s perceived importance of the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem service categories across three landscape types (i.e. larch meadows, spruce forests, and hay meadow). A survey with 470 tourists visiting the region of South Tyrol (Italy) was conducted to link people’s perceived importance to their socio-demographic background and to the landscape types explored. The results show that regulating ecosystem services are preferred over provisioning and cultural services, whereby environmental awareness is found to be more influential than formal education levels regarding the perceived importance of regulating services. The results further demonstrate that cultural background is an important driver in determining people’s perceived importance of cultural services. The underlying landscape types, however, exert an even stronger influence on people’s socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem service categories. This finding suggests that the focus of most ecosystem services assessments on the study area as a whole risks mistakenly attributing differences in people’s socio-cultural values to socio-demographic characteristics only. A better knowledge of the spatial integration of socio-cultural values, however, could help with anticipating the consequences of changes in the landscape and provide better guidance for future landscape planning. 相似文献
34.
Thomas Zumbrunnen Patricia Menéndez Harald Bugmann Marco Conedera Urs Gimmi Matthias Bürgi 《Regional Environmental Change》2012,12(4):935-949
Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence. 相似文献
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A high-precision seismic reflection method has been developed for investigating archeological objects which are hidden in a mud-layer of the Haddebyer Noor, a lake in front of the old Viking settlement Haithabu near Schleswig. Wooden and metallic objects larger than about 30 cm could be detected and mapped. Some of the mapped objects have been rescued by diving operations. Others, like wooden harbour constructions of unexpectedly large dimensions, and a large (second) shipwrack were left conserved in the mud. All finds provide a new picture of this old Viking settlement showing that its inhabitants had a far higher stage of development than hitherto suspected. 相似文献
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Surfaces of many sports fields, playgrounds and paths in Germany are covered with red slag ?Kieselrot”. Kieselrot is extremely high contaminated by polychlorinated dibenzodioxines and dibenzofurans. Mean PCDD/F-concentration in surface layers of 35 locations in Hessen is 45 500 ng I-TE/kg. PCDD/F-contents range from 1 000 to 250 ng I-TE/kg within 10 cm under surface layers and from 6 000 to 600 ng I-TE/kg in top soils of three metres wide peripheral areas. Concentration in subsoils is a function of depth (n=18, r=?0,741), concentration in topsoils of peripheral areas is a function of distance from large sports fields (n=14, r=?0,881) or small sportsfields (n=23, r=?0,742), respectively. A 15 metres wide and 10 centimetres deep peripheral area contains 0,8 g I-TE PCDD/F. The pollution of surroundings and further observations indicate that ?Kieselrot-areas” must be regarded as important dioxin sources. 相似文献
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