Expertise,safety, reliability,and decision making: practical industrial experience

This paper presents our practical experience of expert opinion deduced from concrete field applications, concerning mainly safety and reliability modeling. First, expertise is defined and the approach used for eliciting expertise is shortly described. Quality and value of information from experts are important challenges for decision making from risk analysis. Expertise is very useful for supplying data when not enough field observations are available for estimating parameter uncertainties and quantifying risk analysis models, which are inputs to a decision-making process. Applications presented herein concern mainly the role of expert judgment in reliability.     

Foraging habitats of the seabird community of Europa Island (Mozambique Channel)

We investigated the foraging habitats of the winter breeding community of tropical seabirds from Europa Island (Mozambique Channel) in September 2003. We focused our study on the dominant species of this austral community, the sooty tern (Sterna fuscata), the red-footed booby (Sula sula), and the frigatebirds, including the great (Fregata minor) and the lesser frigatebirds (F. ariel). We considered the at-sea distribution and abundance of these species in relation to chlorophyll concentration, sea-surface temperatures, sea-surface height anomalies, depth of the thermocline, distance to the colony, and presence of surface marine predators, flying fishes and other seabirds. Although the marine environment where seabirds foraged was oligotrophic, it presents the best feeding opportunities for seabirds for the area in winter. Our study demonstrates that the winter-breeding seabird species of Europa Island tend to forage in productive waters in association with other marine predators when possible. Sooty terns and frigatebirds were widely distributed in the whole study area, whereas red-footed boobies were not found farther than 160 km from their colonies and were associated with relatively productive waters. Sooty terns and red-footed boobies were aggregated where flying fishes were abundant. The presence of other marine predators was associated with larger multispecies feeding flocks than when no association occurred. Sooty terns, which are numerically dominant at Europa and adopted network foraging, seem to be catalysts of feeding events, and represented a good target for the other foraging species, especially frigatebirds. However, when possible, frigatebirds favour association with flocks of red-footed boobies.Communicated by S.A. Poulet, Roscoff     

Development of an SPME-GC-MS/MS method for the determination of pesticides in rainwater: laboratory and field experiments

A solid-phase microextraction -- coupled to a gas chromatography -- ion trap tandem mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS/MS) method was developed for the quantitative determination in rainwater of 8 pesticides amongst the most used in France and 3 triazines metabolites. The main factors affecting the SPME process were studied. Using a 3 mL sample, the method developed showed good linearity for concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 50 microgL(-1) with correlation coefficients between 0.997 and 0.9999 and relative standard deviations (% RSD) below 14%. The study of matrix effects showed that rainwater was too diluted to have any significant influence on the extraction efficiency. To validate the method, a field campaign was carried out on the rain events, which occurred in Strasbourg during a one-year period. The rain concentrations showed patterns of high pesticide concentrations during spring months, which were correlated to the spraying periods of most of these substances.     

Age,experience and reproductive performance in a long-lived bird: a hormonal perspective

The ultimate factors influencing age-specific reproductive performance in birds have been widely discussed, and several hypotheses have been suggested to explain why young/inexperienced breeders have lower reproductive success than older individuals. In comparison, proximate factors and, particularly, hormonal mechanisms influencing age-related reproductive performance have received lesser attention. In this paper, we examined how baseline levels of corticosterone and prolactin, two hormones involved in reproduction, changed with age and experience in a long-lived bird, the Black-browed albatross (Thallasarche melanophris) during the brooding stage. Corticosterone levels were not linked to age, whereas prolactin levels increased until individuals reached 15 years of age. First-time breeders had higher corticosterone levels and lower prolactin levels than experienced ones. Corticosterone levels were not correlated with breeding experience among experienced birds, whereas prolactin levels slightly increased with advancing experience. Among experienced breeders, there was no effect of individual quality on corticosterone and prolactin levels. Baseline corticosterone and prolactin levels were respectively, positively and negatively correlated to time spent fasting/brooding on the nest. Moreover, the probability of successfully fledging a chick was negatively related to corticosterone levels, but not to prolactin levels. Elevated corticosterone levels in first time breeders may serve as evidence for depleted body reserves resulting from lower foraging/brooding capabilities and therefore support the constraint hypothesis. Low prolactin levels in young/inexperienced birds may be interpreted either as evidence for their lower breeding capacities (constraint hypothesis) or for their limited breeding investment (restraint hypothesis). Finally, we report, for the first time, the hormonal changes associated with the onset of senescence. The very old and most experienced birds, which had the lowest probability of successfully fledging a young, displayed elevated corticosterone levels and low prolactin levels, possibly indicating a degradation of breeding skills and/or a disruption of the endocrine system in senescent birds.     

Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model

The Lotka–Volterra model was applied to the population densities of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) and its exotic larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hellen) data that was collected earlier by icipe's DBM biological control team. The collections were done for 15 months before the release and 36 months after release of the parasitoid in two areas; in Werugha, Coast Province of Kenya and Tharuni, Central Province of Kenya, respectively. For each area in pre- and post-release periods, we estimated Lotka–Volterra model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time-series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. The model estimated a reduction in the value of the steady state of DBM population from 4.86 to 2.17 in Werugha and from 6.11 to 3.76 and 3.45 (with and without exclusion of the time before D. semiclausum recovery) in Tharuni when transiting from the pre- and post-release periods, respectively. This change was a consequence of the newly introduced parasitoid, in the areas. The study presented a successful and detailed technique for non-linear model parameters restoration which was demonstrated by the correct mimicking of empirical datasets from the classical biological control with D. semiclausum, in different areas of Kenya. The applied model has measured the parasitoids impact on the DBM biological control through a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the newly introduced species D. semiclausum. These equations may therefore be used as tool for decision making in the implementation for such pests’ management system strategy.     

Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Duplication of chromosome 11 centromere in fetal and maternal karyotypes: A new variant?

Fetal chromosome analysis in a 39-year-old mother revealed a chromosome 11 aberration interj ireted as a duplication of the centromere. This was also found in the mother's karyotype, raising the possibility that the abnormality was a new variant of no clinical consequence.     

Offspring sex ratio in relation to parental structural size and body condition in the long-lived wandering albatross (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Diomedea exulans</Emphasis>)

Sex ratio theory is one of the most controversial topics in evolutionary ecology. Many deviations from an equal production of males and females are reported in the literature, but few patterns appear to hold across species or populations. There is clearly a need to identify fitness effects of sex ratio variation. We studied this aspect in a population of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), using molecular sex-identification techniques. We report that parental traits affect both (1) fledgling traits in a sex-dependent way and (2) chick sex: Sons are overproduced when likely to be large at fledging and, to a lesser extent, daughters are overproduced when likely to be in good body condition at fledging. Because for the same population, a previous study reported that post-fledging survival was positively affected by size in males and by body condition in females, our results suggest that wandering albatrosses manipulate offspring sex to increase post-fledging survival.     

Biotransformation of phenylurea herbicides by a soil bacterial strain, Arthrobacter sp. N2: structure, ecotoxicity and fate of diuron metabolite with soil fungi

In order to assess the influence of the aromatic substitution on the ability of a soil bacterial strain, Arthrobacter sp. N2, to degrade phenylurea herbicides, biotransformation assays were performed in mineral medium with resting cells of this soil bacterial strain on three phenylurea herbicides (diuron, chlorotoluron and isoproturon). Each herbicide considered, led to the formation of only one metabolite detected by HPLC analysis. After isolation, the metabolites were identified by NMR and MS, as the corresponding substituted anilines. According to the Microtox test (realized on the bacterium Vibrio fischeri), these metabolites presented non-target toxicity far more important (up to 600 times higher for 4-isopropylaniline) than the parent molecule. For isoproturon and chlorotoluron, the amount of substituted anilines obtained at the end of the biotransformation was very low, whereas the biotransformation of diuron into 3,4-dichloroaniline was almost quantitative. In this last case, the degradation product accumulated in the medium. In soil, other microorganisms are present that might degrade it. So the biotransformation of 3,4-dichloroaniline was then tested with four fungal strains: Aspergillus niger, Beauveria bassiana, Cunninghamella echinulata var. elegans and Mortierella isabellina. The aniline was further transformed with all the microorganisms tested. Only one metabolite was detected by HPLC analysis and after isolation, it was identified to be 3,4-dichloroacetanilide. This acetylated compound led to biological effects less important on V. fischeri than 3,4-dichloroaniline. These results stress the importance of identifying the degradation products to assess the impact of a polluting agent. Indeed, the pollutant may undergo transformation yielding compounds more toxic than the parent molecule.