Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.     

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Thermal radiation in oxy-fuel flames

This work investigates thermal radiation in oxy-fuel flames, based on experiments and modelling. Experiments were conducted in a 100 kW test facility in air and oxy-fuel combustion atmospheres, using two different types of fuels, lignite and propane. In-flame measurements of gas composition, temperature and total radiation intensity, were performed and used as input to radiation modelling to examine the influence of oxy-fuel conditions on gas and particle radiation characteristics. In the modelling, the spectral properties of CO₂ and H₂O are treated by means of a statistical narrow band model and particle radiation is modelled for both scattering and non-scattering particles.Experiments on the propane flame show that the flame radiation conditions are drastically influenced by the recycling conditions. With OF 27 conditions (27% oxygen in the feed gas) and dry recycling, the temperature is slightly lower compared to air-fired conditions, but the emitted intensity is significantly increased. Modelling shows that this is mainly caused by a significantly increased soot radiation. Propane flame images show that the presence of soot in oxy-fuel conditions varies strongly with recycling conditions. The contribution due to an increased emission by CO₂ is of minor importance. In the lignite experiments similar flame temperatures were kept during air and oxy-fuel combustion (OF 25 conditions with dry recycling). The measurements show that the intensity levels in both flames are similar which is due to a strong particle radiation in both environments. The modelling reveals that the dominance by particle radiation contra gas radiation is closely related to whether the particles are scattering or non-scattering.     

The burden of proof in trade disputes and the environment

The WTO leaves discretion over environmental policies to its members, but requests that a fundamental non-discrimination principle is respected: National Treatment (NT). The provision seeks to prevent protectionist use of domestic policy instruments, requesting that when an imported product is sufficiently similar to a domestic product, they are treated identically. WTO adjudicators will often face severe informational problems in environmental disputes. Important for the practical implementation of NT is therefore the allocation of the burden of proof (BoP). This paper highlights basic implications of the BoP for the occurrence of judicial errors, for the environment and for welfare, using a setting where NT serves its intended role of supporting negotiated tariff liberalization. The paper suggests that NT may indeed constrain environmental policies, but that this may be desirable from an efficiency point of view. Also, BoP rules that benefit the environment may not benefit global welfare, and conversely.     

Fungal DNA and pet allergen levels in Swedish day care centers and associations with building characteristics

Pet allergens and mold growth related to damp are common phenomena in day care centers in Sweden but exposure measurements of these factors are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between building construction and indoor environment quality in Swedish day care centers and the potential for exposure to fungi (analyzed by quantitative PCR) and animal allergens (analyzed by ELISA). Measurements were performed in 21 day care centers (103 rooms) from one municipality in Sweden, which were identified as constructions at risk of dampness (85% of the buildings) and with visible damage and mold growth (54% of the buildings). Dust samples were collected using cotton swab and Petri dishes. Total fungal DNA was detected in 99% and 100%, Aspergillus/Penicillium DNA in 54% and 68%, and Stachybotrys chartarum DNA in 4% and 9% of the investigated rooms in cotton swab and Petri dish samples, respectively. The total fungal DNA levels (Geometric Mean, GM) were 4.2 × 10(6) cell equivalents per m(2) and 2.9 × 10(5) cell equivalents per m(2) per day in the swab and Petri dish samples, respectively. The concentrations (GM) of cat (Fel d1), dog (Can f1), and horse (Equ cx) allergens were 9.4, 7.2 ng m(-2) day(-1), and 5.0 unit per m(2) per day, respectively. Total fungal DNA levels were higher in risk construction buildings (p = 0.01), in rooms with linoleum flooring material (p = 0.003), and in buildings with rotating heat exchangers (p = 0.02). There were associations between total fungal DNA levels and cat (p = 0.02), dog (p < 0.001), and horse (p = 0.001) allergens. In conclusion, risk constructions, damp constructions, mould growth, fungal DNA, and animal allergens were common exposure factors in Swedish day care centers. Building constructions that represent a high risk for internal dampness should be avoided in the future, and measures to reduce allergen levels should be considered to protect pet-allergic children from asthmatic problems.     

Linking fate model in freshwater and PBPK model to assess human internal dosimetry of B(a)P associated with drinking water

In the present study, we demonstrate an integrated modeling approach for predicting internal tissue concentrations of chemicals by coupling a multimedia environmental model and a generic physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. A case study was designed for a region situated on the Seine river watershed, downstream of the Paris megacity, and for benzo(a)pyrene emitted from industrial zones in the region. In this case study, these two models are linked only by water intake from riverine system for the multimedia model into human body for the PBPK model. The limited monitoring data sets of B(a)P concentrations in bottom sediment and in raw river water, obtained at the downstream of Paris, were used to re-construct long-term daily concentrations of B(a)P in river water. The re-construction of long-term series of B(a)P level played a key role for the intermediate model calibration (conducted in multimedia model) and thus for improving model input to PBPK model. In order to take into account the parametric uncertainty in the model inputs, some input parameters relevant for the multimedia model were given by probability density functions (PDFs); some generic PDFs were updated with site-specific measurements by a Bayesian approach. The results of this study showed that the multimedia model fits well with actual annual measurements in sediments over one decade. No accumulation of B(a)P in the organs was observed. In conclusion, this case study demonstrated the feasibility of a full-chain assessment combining multimedia environmental predictions and PBPK modeling, including uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.     

Characterisation, dissemination and persistence of gentamicin resistant Escherichia coli from a Danish university hospital to the waste water environment

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential spread of gentamicin resistant (GEN(R)) Escherichia coli isolates or GEN(R) determinants from a Danish university hospital to the waste water environment. Waste water samples were collected monthly from the outlets of the hospital bed wards and the inlet of the related waste water treatment plant (WWTP) from October 2002 to August 2003. Waste water samples were also collected monthly from a residential area in the same period to be able to compare the prevalence of GEN(R)E. coli isolates from hospital related and residential waste water. The waste water isolates were compared to GEN(R)E. coli isolates obtained consecutively from September 2002 to September 2003 from patients mainly with urinary tract infections at the hospital with respect to Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles. All isolates were investigated for GEN(R) mechanisms (aac(3)-II, aac(3)-IV, ant(2')-I, armA), phenotypic resistance pattern, and virulence genes (hlyA, chuA, sfaS, fogG, malX, traT, iutA, fyuA, iroN, cnf1) to investigate if the hospital and waste water could be reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance and virulence. The ability for GEN(R) determinants to transfer horizontally was investigated by mating experiments. A total of 38, 15, 21, and two GEN(R)E. coli were isolated from patients, the hospital outlets, the inlet of the WWTP, and the residential area, respectively. GEN(R)E. coli were more prevalent in waste water from the hospital and the WWTP than in waste water from the residential area. PFGE profiling revealed no spread of specific patient isolates to the waste water. The aac(3)-II gene was detected both in patient and waste water isolates. Furthermore horizontal transfer of the aac(3)-II gene of patient origin to a recipient was shown in vitro, indicating a potential spread of the gene from patient isolates to waste water isolates. Regardless of origin, most isolates exhibited multi-resistance and contained several virulence genes. In conclusion, our study showed a possible spread of aac(3)-II from the hospital to the waste water. Most of the GEN(R)E. coli isolates from both patients and waste water had a multi-resistant phenotype and contained virulence genes and should therefore be considered reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes.     

Permanganate oxidation of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and polar PACs): column experiments with DNAPL at residual saturation

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Permanganate is an oxidant usually applied for in situ soil remediation due to its persistence underground. It has already shown great efficiency for...