Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.     

Ozone measurements along vertical transects in the Alps

To investigate the vertical profiles of air pollutants in the boundary layer, aircraft and balloon-born measurements and measurements using a cable car as an instrument platform have been performed in different parts of the Alps. This on-line monitoring of atmospheric pollutants requires expensive and sophisticated techniques. In order to control ambient air quality in remote regions, where no infrastructure like power supply is available, simple instruments are required. The objective of this study, which was coordinated and evaluated by the GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit was first, to investigate the vertical distribution of ozone in different parts of the Alps and secondly, in addition to continuous analyser measurements, to test monitoring by means of two types of passive samplers. The selection of these samplers — one for one week use and another one for two week application — was based on a passive sampler intercomparison done in a preliminary study one year earlier.     

Do Polynomials Adequately Describe the Hypsometry of Monadnock Phase Watersheds?

Hypsometry has been shown to be a useful tool in geomorphic analysis of watersheds with the use of third‐degree polynomial equations to express the hypsometric curve. Despite its usefulness with watersheds in the equilibrium stage, the third‐degree polynomial has been found to be inadequate to describe the hypsometry of Monadnock phase watersheds. Three other equations — a modified third‐degree polynomial with a rational term, a sigmoidal model, and a double exponential — were used to determine hypsometric attributes of 32 Monadnock phase watersheds and compared to the third‐degree polynomial form. The three other equations were found to be better fits for Monadnock phase watersheds than the third‐degree polynomial equation, regardless of which ratio — area or elevation — was plotted as the independent variable. Due to the occasional failure of each functional form to give logical values for hypsometric attributes, the importance of using more than one form equation is discussed. After determining the best‐fit equation for each watershed, the usefulness of hypsometric attributes is discussed in relation to erosion processes within Monadnock phase watersheds.     

Is a negative correlation between resource abundance and growth sufficient evidence that there is a “resource curse”?

Evidence from cross-sectional growth regressions suggests that economies dependent on natural resource exports have had slower growth than resource scarce economies. Explanations for this “curse of resources” focus on institutional and market failures caused by resource abundance. With a simple two sector model exhaustible resource model, we demonstrate that the correlation between growth and natural resource abundance can be negative in the absence of market and institutional failures. Since there is no way to distinguish between efficient and inefficient equilibria on the basis of the negative correlation between growth and resource abundance, finding that correlation is not sufficient to conclude resources are a curse, nor is it necessary to find a positive correlation between growth and resources to overturn the resource curse interpretation. We show whether resources are a curse or a blessing for an economy can only be determined by an investigation of the correlation between resource abundance and income levels. Using panel data for U.S. states for the period 1970-2001, we show that resource abundance is negatively correlated with growth rates but positively correlated with income levels.