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931.
Thuan-Quoc Thach Chit-Ming Wong King-Pan Chan Yuen-Kwan Chau G. Neil Thomas Chun-Quan Ou Lin Yang Joseph S.M. Peiris Tai-Hing Lam Anthony J. Hedley 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(11):1437-1442
We assessed confounding of associations between short-term effects of air pollution and health outcomes by influenza using Hong Kong mortality and hospitalization data for 1996–2002.Three measures of influenza were defined: (i) intensity: weekly proportion of positive influenza viruses, (ii) epidemic: weekly number of positive influenza viruses ≥4% of the annual number for ≥2 consecutive weeks, and (iii) predominance: an epidemic period with co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus <2% of the annual positive isolates for ≥2 consecutive weeks. We examined effects of influenza on associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM10) and ozone (O3) and health outcomes including all natural causes mortality, cardiorespiratory mortality and hospitalization. Generalized additive Poisson regression model with natural cubic splines was fitted to control for time-varying covariates to estimate air pollution health effects. Confounding with influenza was assessed using an absolute difference of >0.1% between unadjusted and adjusted excess risks (ER%).Without adjustment, pollutants were associated with positive ER% for all health outcomes except asthma and stroke hospitalization with SO2 and stroke hospitalization with O3. Following adjustment, changes in ER% for all pollutants were <0.1% for all natural causes mortality, but >0.1% for mortality from stroke with NO2 and SO2, cardiac or heart disease with NO2, PM10 and O3, lower respiratory infections with NO2 and O3 and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with all pollutants. Changes >0.1% were seen for acute respiratory disease hospitalization with NO2, SO2 and O3 and acute lower respiratory infections hospitalization with PM10. Generally, influenza does not confound the observed associations of air pollutants with all natural causes mortality and cardiovascular hospitalization, but for some pollutants and subgroups of cardiorespiratory mortality and respiratory hospitalization there was evidence to suggest confounding by influenza. 相似文献
932.
S.R. Utembe M.C. Cooke A.T. Archibald M.E. Jenkin R.G. Derwent D.E. Shallcross 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(13):1609-1622
A reduced chemical scheme (CRIv2-R5) which describes ozone formation from the tropospheric degradation of methane and 22 emitted non-methane hydrocarbons and oxygenated volatile organic compounds has been applied in a global-3D chemistry transport model (STOCHEM). The scheme, which contains 220 species in 609 reactions, has been used to simulate ozone and its precursors for the meteorological year of 1998 and the results have been compared with those from STOCHEM runs with its original chemistry. Compared with the original chemistry scheme, the degradation of a larger number of more reactive VOCs in the CRI scheme results in the formation (and their consequent transportation) of more NOx active reservoirs thus leading to formation of more ozone away from land-based sources. Conversely, the more reactive VOCs also lead to greater removal of OH in continental areas and greater formation of OH in marine environments. STOCHEM run with the CRI scheme simulates more ozone (by up to 10 ppb), which results in better agreement with observed vertical ozone profiles. The CRI scheme transforms the globally and annually integrated ozone budget for the considered year in STOCHEM from a net loss of ?55 Tg yr?1 to a net gain of +50 Tg yr?1. 相似文献
933.
934.
Kris A. G. Wyckhuys Robert J. O’Neil 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2010,12(3):297-311
In subsistence farming systems of the developing world, adoption of resource-conserving practices such as integrated pest
management (IPM) is often strikingly low. This has partially been ascribed to researchers’ limited understanding of how technologies
develop at the interface of the systems’ social and ecological components. In Honduras (Central America), there exists concern
about limited adoption and diffusion of IPM technologies in certain smallholder production systems. In this study, we determine
social and ecological drivers of IPM adoption in subsistence maize production in the country’s hillside environment. Honduran
small-scale maize production is typified by a key insect pest (the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda) being partly kept at bay through action of a diverse natural enemy complex, including ants, social wasps, carabid beetles,
and spiders. Local agricultural landscapes, primarily shaped through shifting cultivation, provide key resources to maintain
this natural enemy diversity. These local ecological conditions and related natural enemy abundance strongly influence farmers’
agroecological knowledge and pest management practices. In the meantime, farmer practices are also affected by local communication
networks, which help validate and spread IPM concepts and technologies. Based on our findings, we advocate a holistic approach
to improve IPM extension through mapping of agroecological opportunities, visualization of regional patterns in farmer knowledge,
and associated priority setting. Local IPM capacity could be built through institutional strengthening and adaptive comanagement,
while IPM training should be linked with natural resource management initiatives. These approaches may eventually improve
the way IPM is delivered to small-scale farmers who operate in the ecologically diverse environments of the tropics. 相似文献
935.
Z. G. Prishutova 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2010,41(1):55-59
Vegetation was considerably trampled throughout Vodnyi Island in the Rostovskii Nature Reserve in 2007 because of a high pasture
load due to feral horses (0.15 horses/ha). Calculation of the food resources on the island, with its protection as part of
a nature reserve taken into account, has shown that the herd size is 3.5 times larger than the maximum allowable value. 相似文献
936.
Using the long-tailed tit (Aegithalos c. caudatus) as an example of the so-called irruptive species, the ecophysiological characteristics (body mass, fat reserves) and migration
speed during autumn period were analyzed. The mean body mass and the median fat score did not depend on the number of migrating
individuals. There was no evidence of the so-called stress in birds, participating in migration: migrants had even higher
fat reserves than residents, while no significant difference in the body mass was recorded. The increase in fat reserves in
the long-tailed tit during migration period was similar to the seasonal changes in energy reserves known for typical migrants.
This makes it possible for late-migrating individuals to maintain higher total speed of migration compared to early-migrating
ones. Basing on the obtained data, we conclude that the ecophysiological characteristics of the long-tailed tits migrating
in autumn are similar to those of regular migrants. 相似文献
937.
938.
John R. Dymond Tim J. A. Davie Andrew D. Fenemor Jagath C. Ekanayake Ben R. Knight Anthony O. Cole Oscar Montes de Oca Munguia Will J. Allen Roger G. Young Les R. Basher Marc Dresser Chris J. Batstone 《Environmental management》2010,46(3):484-493
Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application. 相似文献
939.
Kevin G. Boggs Robert W. Van Kirk Gary S. Johnson Jerry P. Fairley P. Steve Porter 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2010,46(6):1116-1132
Boggs, Kevin G., Robert W. Van Kirk, Gary S. Johnson, Jerry P. Fairley, and P. Steve Porter, 2010. Analytical Solutions to the Linearized Boussinesq Equation for Assessing the Effects of Recharge on Aquifer Discharge. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1116–1132. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00479.x Abstract: There is a need to develop a general understanding of how variations in aquifer recharge are reflected in discharge. Analytical solutions to the linearized Boussinesq equation governing flow in an unconfined aquifer provide a unified mathematical framework to quantify relationships among lag time, attenuation and distance between aquifer recharge and discharge and the effect of an up-gradient no-flow boundary. We applied this framework to three types of recharge: (1) instantaneous, (2) periodic, and (3) constant rate for a finite duration. When the temporal scale of recharge exceeds the diffusive aquifer time scale, recharge will be reflected in discharge quickly and with little attenuation. When aquifer time scale is large, most recharge events are shorter in scale than that of the aquifer, resulting in large attenuation. Attenuation is more sensitive to boundary effects than lag time, and boundary effects increase as recharge time scale increases. Boundary effects can often be ignored when the recharge source is farther than 1/3 of the domain length away from the no-flow boundary. We illustrate analytical results with application to the economically critical Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer in Idaho. In this aquifer, detectable annual and decadal cycles in discharge can result from recharge no farther than 20 and 60 km away from the discharge point, respectively. The effects of more distant, long-term recharge can be detected only after a time lag of several decades. 相似文献
940.
The soil fumigants 1,3-dichloropropene (1,3-D) and chloropicrin (CP) are often used for controlling soil-borne plant pathogens and parasitic nematodes before reestablishing new vineyards and orchards. To evaluate crop safety and environmental risks with the replant fumigation, four field experiments were performed over 2 yr to examine 1,3-D and CP lateral movement away from the treated fields. Shank injection with or without a virtually impermeable film (V1F) was used in two vineyard fumigation experiments, and spot drip application without tarp cover was used in two orchard experiments. Results showed that 1,3-D and CP gases moved laterally to 6 m from the treated fields when the fumigants were applied by shank injection. The maximum 1,3-D or CP soil gas concentration at 6 m was approximately 10 ng cm(-3) when the fumigated plot was not cover with a tarp. With VIF, the measured maximum concentration increased to approximately 100 ng cm(-3). In the spot drip application, maximum 1,3-D and CP gas concentrations reached approximately 100 ng cm(-3) but at 1.5 m radial distance from the point of fumigant injection. 相似文献