长江流域春夏旱涝灾害与太平洋海温关联性研究

基于长江流域区域1956-2011年50年气象资料和同期太平洋海温资料,采用Z指数、EOF、REOF、SVD分析等方法,探讨长江流域春季和夏季旱涝特征及其旱涝事件与极端海温异常之间的关联性,得出以下结论。1REOF的Z指数春夏季节旱涝空间分区特征显示,春季前6个模态的累计方差贡献率能够达到61.2%,收敛速度较平缓,夏季前6个模态累积方差贡献率更低,只有52.1%。2前冬太平洋海温的变化与长江流域旱涝的态势呈显著相关关系,春季海温场与长江流域旱涝Z指数场的SVD第一模态显示,长江流域的东北区的旱涝与厄尔尼诺显著相关,当赤道东太平洋海温升高,西太平洋海温降低时,长江流域东北地区偏涝,而长江流域的西部地区偏旱,反之亦然。3夏季海温场与长江流域旱涝Z指数场的SVD第一模态,表明太平洋海温分布主要呈现南北向的分布,当赤道中东太平洋海温偏高,北太平洋海温偏低时,长江流域夏季中部地区偏涝。反之亦然。第二模态,全球海温呈现厄尔尼诺类型的分布,中东太平洋是负相关,而在西太平洋为显著负相关。     

自然灾害动态风险分析的一个形式化模型

根据自然灾害动态风险分析基本原理,将概率风险模型改造成一个动态风险分析的形式化模型。由条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数耦合而成的风险,随着综合环境和内在属性的变化而变化。我们建议用正态信息扩散方法估计条件概率密度函数和动态脆弱性函数。这两个重要函数的估计都不依赖人为假设,分析过程透明,结果可解释性强,具有一定的可靠性。     

基于Google Earth的1920年海原8.5级大地震地质灾害研究

详细精确的滑坡编目是地震滑坡灾害评价的前提和基础。利用Google Earth提供的多源高精度卫星影像对1920年海原8.5级地震触发的黄土滑坡进行了详细解译,共解译得到1 000处滑坡,并利用多边形圈出了滑源区和堆积区。海原地震滑坡主要集中分布于西吉县西南部和海原县东南部。统计分析表明,地震触发的滑坡灾害主要受高程、坡高、坡度、坡向等地形地貌参数的控制,大量低角度高速远程滑坡主要是由于黄土液化的作用。     

Assessment of potential dermal and inhalation exposure of workers to the insecticide imidacloprid using whole-body dosimetry in China

In China, although improvements to the pesticide registration process have beenmade in last thirty years, no occupational exposure data are required to obtain a commercial license for a pesticide product. Consequently, notably little research has been conducted to establish an exposure assessment procedure in China. The present study monitored the potential dermal operator exposure from knapsack electric sprayer wheat field application of imidacloprid in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province and in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, using whole-body dosimetry. The potential inhalation exposure was determined using a personal air pump and XAD-2 sample tubes. The analytical method was developed and validated, including such performance parameters as limits of detection and quantification, linear range, recovery and precision. The total potential dermal and inhalation exposures were 14.20, 16.80, 15.39 and 20.78 mL/hr, respectively, for the four operators in Liaocheng and Xinxiang, corresponding to 0.02% to 0.03% of the applied volume of spray solution. In all trials, the lower part (thigh, lower leg) of the body was the most contaminated, accounting for approximately 76% to 88% of the total exposure. The inhalation exposure was less than 1% of the total exposure. Such factors as the application pattern, crop type, spray equipment, operator experience and climatic conditions have been used to explain the exposure distribution over the different parts of the body. As indicated by the calculated Margin of Exposure, the typical wheat treatment scenarios when a backpack sprayer was used are considered to be safe in terms of imidacloprid exposure.     

Effects of water regime,crop residues,and application rates on control of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense

Biological soil disinfestation is an effective method to control soil-borne disease by flooding and incorporating with organic amendments, but field conditions and resources sometimes limited its practical application. A laboratory experiment was conducted to develop practice guidelines on controlling Fusarium wilt, a widespread banana disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (FOC). FOC infested soil incorporated with rice or maize straw at rates of 1.5 tons/ha and 3.0 tons/ha was incubated under flooded or water-saturated (100% water holding capacity) conditions at 30°C for 30 days. Results showed that FOC populations in the soils incorporated with either rice or maize straw rapidly reduced more than 90% in the first 15 days and then fluctuated till the end of incubation, while flooding alone without organic amendment reduced FOC populations slightly. The rapid and dramatic decrease of redox potential (down to − 350 mV) in straw-amended treatments implied that both anaerobic condition and strongly reductive soil condition would contribute to pathogen inactivation. Water-saturation combined with straw amendments had the comparable effects on reduction of FOC, indicating that flooding was not indispensable for inactivating FOC. There was no significant difference in the reduction of FOC observed in the straw amendments at between 1.5 and 3 tons/ha. Therefore, incorporating soil with straw (rice or maize straw) at a rate of 3.0 tons/ha under 100% water holding capacity or 1.5 tons/ha under flooding, would effectively alleviate banana Fusarium wilt caused by FOC after 15-day treating under 30°C.     

Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalysts for catalytic combustion of toluene

Cu–Mn, Cu–Mn–Ce, and Cu–Ce mixed-oxide catalysts were prepared by a citric acid sol–gel method and then characterized by XRD, BET, H₂-TPR and XPS analyses. Their catalytic properties were investigated in the toluene combustion reaction. Results showed that the Cu–Mn–Ce ternary mixed-oxide catalyst with 1:2:4 mole ratios had the highest catalytic activity, and 99% toluene conversion was achieved at temperatures below 220°C. In the Cu–Mn–Ce catalyst, a portion of Cu and Mn species entered into the CeO₂ fluorite lattice, which led to the formation of a ceria-based solid solution. Excess Cu and Mn oxides existed on the surface of the ceria-based solid solution. The coexistence of Cu–Mn mixed oxides and the ceria-based solid solution resulted in a better synergetic interaction than the Cu–Mn and Cu–Ce catalysts, which promoted catalyst reducibility, increased oxygen mobility, and enhanced the formation of abundant active oxygen species.     

Do vehicular emissions dominate the source of C6–C8 aromatics in the megacity Shanghai of eastern China?

The characteristic ratios of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) to i-pentane, the indicator of vehicular emissions, were employed to apportion the vehicular and non-vehicular contributions to reactive species in urban Shanghai. Two kinds of tunnel experiments, one tunnel with more than 90% light duty gasoline vehicles and the other with more than 60% light duty diesel vehicles, were carried out to study the characteristic ratios of vehicle-related emissions from December 2009 to January 2010. Based on the experiments, the characteristic ratios of C6–C8aromatics to i-pentane of vehicular emissions were 0.53 ± 0.08(benzene), 0.70 ± 0.12(toluene),0.41 ± 0.09(m,p-xylenes), 0.16 ± 0.04(o-xylene), 0.023 ± 0.011(styrene), and 0.15 ± 0.02(ethylbenzene), respectively. The source apportionment results showed that around 23.3% of C6–C8 aromatics in urban Shanghai were from vehicular emissions, which meant that the non-vehicular emissions had more importance. These findings suggested that emission control of non-vehicular sources, i.e. industrial emissions, should also receive attention in addition to the control of vehicle-related emissions in Shanghai. The chemical removal of VOCs during the transport from emissions to the receptor site had a large impact on the apportionment results. Generally, the overestimation of vehicular contributions would occur when the VOC reaction rate constant with OH radicals(k OH) was larger than that of the vehicular indicator, while for species with smaller k OH than the vehicular indicator, the vehicular contribution would be underestimated by the method of characteristic ratios.     

亚热带城市河流生态河岸的研究

随着生活水平的提高,城市河流生态河岸日益受到重视.从城市河流河岸的现状分析,到国内外城市河流生态河岸的研究,包括城市河流生态河岸的规划与实践,较为全面的体现了城市河流生态河岸的结构与功能,并提供了亚热带城市河流生态河岸的研究案例,基于亚热带的气候条件及研究基础,为亚热带城市河流生态河岸进一步研究提供参考.     

松果去除水体中左氧氟沙星的研究

以松果为原料制备生物吸附剂,通过等温吸附模型和吸附动力学模型对吸附过程进行拟合,分析松果对左氧氟沙星的吸附特征,并考察了左氧氟沙星的最佳吸附条件.结果表明,最佳的吸附条件为pH为8,温度为40℃,吸附剂用量为0.8 g/L,最大吸附量为104.17 mg/g.吸附过程能较好被准二级动力学方程(R2＞0.99)和Langmuir等温吸附模型(R2 ＞0.99)拟合.以农业废弃物松果制备出价廉、高效的新型生物吸附剂,为水体中抗生素的处理提供了一种新的方法.     

BP 神经网络模型在环境气象灾害预测中的应用研究--以湖南省为例

依据环境气象数据与自然灾害统计数据,建立BP神经网络模型,对湖南主要气象灾害（洪灾、旱灾、冰冻灾）及受灾经济损失进行实例预测,将在MATLAB7软件中的仿真结果与传统的多元线性回归模型分析结果进行比较和误差分析。结果表明,BP神经网络模型在洪灾、旱灾受灾率方面的预测效果和精度优于多元回归模型,而由于冰灾训练样本不足及经济损失与输入因子的线性相关程度高,在冰灾与受灾经济损失率方面稍逊于多元回归模型。