Relating environmental modeling to policy issues and decisions

This paper describes a linear program-based computer model which has been developed to identify the most effective spending patterns for environmental cleanup based on public preferences and spending limitations. The inputs to the model include the costs of removing each residual studied from its various sources. The objective function is the total “value of removal”. The factor added for each residual consists of a value for the residual multiplied by the quantity or fraction removed.Results of the analysis relate to and support current and projected policy decisions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for air and water programs. In addition, the results of the analysis suggest that EPA undertake a redirection of the Nation's resources among residual control programs.     

The sterile release method with unequal male competitive ability

A model is presented which is a generalization of a model analyzed previously. The present model examines the condition in which the released sterile males do not compete equally with the wild fertile males for mates or incur unequal mortality. It is found that the general qualitative behavior of the system does not change with changes in competitive ability or mortality of the sterile males; the quantitative behavior does change, however. Predictably, eradication and control are made more difficult by a reduction in competitive ability of the sterile males or by increased mortality of steriles. The effects of density and frequency dependent changes in competitive ability are briefly considered.     

Invasion in a diversity hotspot: exotic cover and native richness in the Californian serpentine flora

Exotic species have been observed to be more prevalent in sites where the richness of native species is highest, possibly reflecting variation among sites in resources, propagule supply, heterogeneity, or disturbance. However, such a pattern leaves unclear whether natives at species-rich sites are subject to especially severe impacts from exotics as a result. We considered this question using path models in which relationships between exotic cover and native richness were evaluated in the presence of correlated environmental factors. At 109 sites on serpentine soils across California, USA, exotic cover was positively correlated with total native herbaceous richness and was negatively correlated with the richness of both serpentine-endemic and rare native herbs. However, in path models that accounted for the influences of soil chemistry, disturbance, overstory cover, and regional rainfall and elevation, we found no indication that exotic cover reduced any component of native herb richness. Rather, our results indicated similarities and differences in the conditions favoring exotic, native, endemic, and rare species. Our results suggest that, in spite of some localized impacts, exotic species are not exerting a detectable overall effect on the community richness of the unique native flora of Californian serpentine.     

Quantifying biases in marine-protected-area placement relative to abatable threats

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a critical defense against biodiversity loss in the world's oceans, but to realize near-term conservation benefits, they must be established where major threats to biodiversity occur and can be mitigated. We quantified the degree to which MPA establishment has targeted stoppable threats (i.e., threats that can be abated through effectively managed MPAs alone) by combining spatially explicit marine biodiversity threat data in 2008 and 2013 and information on the location and potential of MPAs to halt threats. We calculated an impact metric to determine whether countries are protecting proportionally more high- or low-threat ecoregions and compared observed values with random protected-area allocation. We found that protection covered <2% of ecoregions in national waters with high levels of abatable threat in 2013, which is ∼59% less protection in high-threat areas than if MPAs had been placed randomly. Relatively low-threat ecoregions had 6.3 times more strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature categories I–II) than high-threat ecoregions. Thirty-one ecoregions had high levels of stoppable threat but very low protection, which presents opportunities for MPAs to yield more significant near-term conservation benefits. The extent of the global MPA estate has increased, but the establishment of MPAs where they can reduce threats that are driving biodiversity loss is now urgently needed.     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.     

Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and management.

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.     

Moral Hazard, Externalities, and Compensation for Crop Damages from Wildlife

A principal–multiple agent model is used to examine wildlife damage abatement and compensation programs in a setting in which farmers suffer damages and hunters use the wildlife for recreational purposes. In addition to externalities inherent in abatement, abatement/compensation policy confronts the issue of moral hazard. By representing the principal as a wildlife management authority who acts on behalf of hunters, we investigate contracts in which transfers of more or less severe hunting regulations, a public good that aids in dispersing wildlife, and monetary payments from hunting license fees can be used to overcome moral hazard.     

Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species.

Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-species conservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process.