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31.
Population models for multiple species provide one of the few means of assessing the impact of alternative management options on the persistence of biodiversity, but they are inevitably uncertain. Is it possible to use population models in multiple-species conservation planning given the associated uncertainties? We use information-gap decision theory to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty on the conservation decision when planning for the persistence of multiple species. An information-gap approach seeks robust outcomes that are most immune from error. We assess the impact of uncertainty in key model parameters for three species, whose extinction risks under four alternative management scenarios are estimated using a metapopulation model. Three methods are described for making conservation decisions across the species, taking into account uncertainty. We find that decisions based on single species are relatively robust to uncertainty in parameters, although the estimates of extinction risk increase rapidly with uncertainty. When identifying the best conservation decision for the persistence of all species, the methods that rely on the rankings of the management options by each species result in decisions that are similarly robust to uncertainty. Methods that depend on absolute values of extinction risk are sensitive to uncertainty, as small changes in extinction risk can alter the ranking of the alternative scenarios. We discover that it is possible to make robust conservation decisions even when the uncertainties of the multiple-species problem appear overwhelming. However, the decision most robust to uncertainty is likely to differ from the best decision when uncertainty is ignored, illustrating the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process. 相似文献
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33.
Dr. Roland Zimmermann Urs Lauper Anja Streicher Renate Huch Albert Hugh 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(12):1121-1124
In a series of 2961 consecutive cases with second-trimester biochemical triple screening for Down's syndrome and neural tube defect (NTD), ten (0.3 per cent) showed an apparent increased risk for both conditions. Three cases had chromosomal abnormalities, namely trisomy 16 confined to the placenta. Since placental trisomy 16 as well as cases with increased alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) are associated with (intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), oligohydramnios, and fetal demise, at least some cases with this atypical biochemical profile could be explained by this chromosomal abnormality. From our results we recommend that in cases with increased risk for both Down's syndrome and NTD, fetal karyotyping should preferably be done on a placental biopsy, especially when ultrasound in the absence of anomalies demonstrates early IUGR. 相似文献
34.
The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) has a program for chemical mixtures that encompasses research on chemical mixtures toxicity, health risk assessment, and development of innovative computational methods. ATSDR prepared a guidance document that instructs users on how to conduct health risk assessment on chemical mixtures (Guidance Manual for the Assessment of Joint Toxic Action of Chemical Mixtures). ATSDR also developed six interaction profiles for chemical mixtures. Two profiles were developed for persistent environmental chemicals that are often found in contaminated fish and also can be detected in human breast milk. The mixture included chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, hexachlorobenzene, dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethane, methyl mercury, and polychlorinated biphenyls. Two profiles each were developed for mixtures of metals and mixtures of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs) that are frequently found at hazardous waste sites. The two metal profiles dealt with (a) lead, manganese, zinc, and copper; and (b) arsenic, cadmium, chromium, and lead; the two VOCs mixtures dealt with (a) 1,1,1-trichloroethane, 1,1-dichloroethane, trichloroethylene, and tetrachloroethylene; and (b) benzene, ethylbenzene, toluene, and xylenes (BTEX). Weight-of-evidence methodology was used to assess the joint toxic action for most of the mixtures. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling was used for BTEX. In most cases, a target-organ toxicity dose modification of the hazard index approach is recommended for conducting exposure-based assessments of noncancer health hazards. 相似文献
35.
Stuart Kininmonth Maria BegerMichael Bode Eric PetersonVanessa M. Adams Dan DorfmanDaniel R. Brumbaugh Hugh P. Possingham 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(7):1272-1282
Although larval dispersal is crucial for the persistence of most marine populations, dispersal connectivity between sites is rarely considered in designing marine protected area networks. In particular the role of structural characteristics (known as topology) for the network of larval dispersal routes in the conservation of metapopulations has not been addressed. To determine reserve site configurations that provide highest persistence values with respect to their connectivity characteristics, we model nine connectivity topological models derived from graph theory in a demographic metapopulation model. We identify reserve site configurations that provide the highest persistence values for each of the metapopulation connectivity models. Except for the minimally connected and fully connected populations, we observed two general ‘rules of thumb’ for optimising the mean life time for all topological models: firstly place the majority of reserves, so that they are neighbours of each other, on the sites where the number of connections between the populations is highest (hub), secondly when the reserves have occupied the majority of the vertices in the hub, then select another area of high connectivity and repeat. If there are no suitable hubs remaining then distribute the remaining reserves to isolated locations optimising contact with non-reserved sites. 相似文献
36.
William J.M. Probert Martin DrechslerPeter W.J. Baxter Hugh P. Possingham 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(10):1781-1789
It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened. 相似文献
37.
Oliver Manlik Robert C. Lacy William B. Sherwin Hugh Finn Neil R. Loneragan Simon J. Allen 《Conservation biology》2022,36(4):e13897
Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife. 相似文献
38.
The systematic conservation planning literature invariably assumes that the biodiversity features being preserved in sites do not change through time. We develop a conservation planning framework for ecosystems where disturbance events and succession drive vegetation dynamics. The framework incorporates three key attributes of disturbance theory: heterogeneity in disturbance rates, spatial correlation between disturbance events and different impacts of disturbance. In our conservation problem we wish to maximise the chance that we represent a certain number of successional types given a cap on the number of sites we can conserve. Correlation between disturbance events dramatically complicates the problem of choosing the optimal suite of sites. However, in our problem we discover that spatial correlation in disturbances affects the optimal reserve network very little. The reason is twofold: (i) through our probabilistic framework we focus on the long-term effectiveness of reserve networks and (ii) in the dynamics considered in our model the state of a site is not only affected by the most recent (correlated) disturbance event but also by the site's long-term stochastic history which blurs the impact of spatial correlation. If successional states are the conservation target rather than individual species then, conserving a site can only contribute to meeting one target. However, given that correlation of disturbance events may be ignored, we show that if the number of candidate reserves is sufficiently large the statistical dependence of different conservation targets may be ignored, too. We conclude that the computational complexity of reserve selection methods for dynamic ecosystems can be much simpler than they first appear. 相似文献
39.
Assessment of GM Crops in Commercial Agriculture 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The caliber of recent discourse regarding geneticallymodified organisms (GMOs) has suffered from a lack of consensuson terminology, from the scarcity of evidence upon which toassess risk to health and to the environment, and from valuedifferences between proponents and opponents of GMOs. Towardsaddressing these issues, we present the thesis that GM should bedefined as the forcible insertion of DNA into a host genome,irrespective of the source of the DNA, and exclusive ofconventional or mutation breeding.Some defenders of the commercial use of GMOs have referred to thescientific work of GMO critics as ``junk science.' Such a claim isfalse and misleading, given that many papers critical of both theutility and safety of GMOs have been published in peer reviewedjournals by respected scientists. In contrast, there is a dearthof peer reviewed work to substantiate the frequently heardassertions of either safety or utility in GMOs. The polarity,which now characterizes much of the public discourse on GMOs,reflects not simply scientific disagreement, but alsodisagreement in underlying value assumptions. Value differencesstrongly affect the assessment of both benefit and harm fromGMOs.The concept of substantial equivalence occupies a pivotalposition in the GMO risk assessment process that is used in bothCanada and the US. A GMO judged to be substantially equivalent toa conventional product – as have all submissions to date – ispresumed to be safe enough for commercialization. The conclusionof safety – from both human health and environmental perspectives– should be based on scientific evidence, corroborated by actualexperimentation. However, regulators infer safety largely fromassumptions-based reasoning, with little or no experimentalvalidation. The judgement of safety because of substantialequivalence is a dubious argument by analogy. 相似文献
40.
Nielsen Jytte Seested Chilton Susan Metcalf Hugh 《Environmental Economics and Policy Studies》2019,21(1):61-86
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - The risk–risk trade-off method is a technique used to elicit the relative trade-off between changes in morbidity and mortality risks in stated... 相似文献