Conservation decision-making in large state spaces

When looking for the best course of management decisions to efficiently conserve metapopulation systems, a classic approach in the ecology literature is to model the optimisation problem as a Markov decision process and find an optimal control policy using exact stochastic dynamic programming techniques. Stochastic dynamic programming is an iterative procedure that seeks to optimise a value function at each timestep by evaluating the benefits of each of the actions in each state of the system defined in the Markov decision process.Although stochastic dynamic programming methods provide an optimal solution to conservation management questions in a stochastic world, their applicability in metapopulation problems has always been limited by the so-called curse of dimensionality. The curse of dimensionality is the problem that adding new state variables inevitably results in much larger (often exponential) increases in the size of the state space, which can make solving superficially small problems impossible. The high computational requirements of stochastic dynamic programming methods mean that only simple metapopulation management problems can be analysed. In this paper we overcome the complexity burden of exact stochastic dynamic programming methods and present the benefits of an on-line sparse sampling algorithm proposed by Kearns, Mansour and Ng (2002). The algorithm is particularly attractive for problems with large state spaces as the running time is independent of the size of the state space of the problem. This appealing improvement is achieved at a cost: the solutions found are no longer guaranteed to be optimal.We apply the algorithm of Kearns et al. (2002) to a hypothetical fish metapopulation problem where the management objective is to maximise the number of occupied patches over the management time horizon. Our model has multiple management options to combat the threats of water abstraction and waterhole sedimentation. We compare the performance of the optimal solution to the results of the on-line sparse sampling algorithm for a simple 3-waterhole case. We find that three look-ahead steps minimises the error between the optimal solution and the approximation algorithm. This paper introduces a new algorithm to conservation management that provides a way to avoid the effects of the curse of dimensionality. The work has the potential to allow us to approximate solutions to much more complex metapopulation management problems in the future.     

Is kin cooperation going on undetected in marine bird colonies?

In multitudinous breeding colonies, kin interactions could go unnoticed because we are unaware of the kinship among adults we observe. Evidence of cooperation and competition between close adult kin in a blue-footed booby colony was sought by analyzing patterns of natal dispersal and proximity of nests. Male and female recruits nested closer to their own natal sites than to their parents’ current sites. Males (only) dispersed less far when both parents were present than when no parent or one parent was present, but not selectively close to fathers versus mothers when these were divorced. Neither parental presence nor parental proximity affected breeding success of recruits of either sex. Although distances between the nests of simultaneously recruiting broodmates were unrelated to their sex, males dispersed 13.1 m less when a sister was present than when a brother was present. Neither sex was affected in its dispersal distance by the presence or hatching order/dominance of a broodmate. Neither sex was affected in its breeding success by the presence versus absence of a broodmate, although female success increased with proximity of their brothers. Parents and sisters may actively or passively help males establish their first territories near their natal sites and nearby brothers may help females in their first breeding attempts; otherwise, boobies do not influence each other’s natal dispersal and first breeding success. It appears that boobies do not nest selectively close to or far from their parents, offspring, or broodmates. Why there is apparently so little cooperation and altruism between close adult relatives in booby colonies is puzzling.     

An integrated assessment modeling framework for assessing primary and secondary impacts from carbon dioxide stabilization scenarios

As the nations of the world negotiate future controls on greenhouse gas emissions, a critical environmental policy issue becomes understanding the multiple environmental consequences of these controls. Here we describe an integrated assessment model for quantifying multiple environmental impacts of large-scale environmental initiatives and apply this model to climate change mitigation. Our analysis shows that reductions in global warming will be accompanied by reductions in ozone depletion, acid rain and mercury emissions, and desulfurization waste generation. We also conclude that the largest collateral benefits from reducing global climate change may be in the developing world. This result is critical since it is the developing nations who ultimately control the long-term success of any climate stabilization strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk—their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance‐discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers’ risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. El Efecto de la Aversión de Riesgo sobre la Priorización de Proyectos de Conservación     

The Pending Extinction of the Uncompahgre Fritillary Butterfly

Previous mark-recapture studies and population size estimates indicated that in the 1980s populations of the endangered Uncompahgre fritillary ( Boloria acrocnema ) declined precipitously, apparently leading to extirpation at its type locality. This locality and a nearby second site, both high in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, constitute the total known range of B. acrocnema . A survey of 20 presumptive allozyme loci from one B. acrocnema population and seven populations of the closely related B. improba , sampled along the Rocky Mountain cordillera from the Yukon Territory, Canada, to the Wind River Range of Wyoming, revealed that B. acrocnema populations are less variable genetically than are B. improba populations in the northern part of that species' North American range. Genetic variability was also assayed at 18 presumptive allozyme loci in populations of Boloria titania, which were sampled from five of the same locations for comparison with the B. improba-B. acrocnema clade. Low estimates of heterozygosity indicate that genetic and demographic factors preceded by historic human disturbance are causing the decline of B. acrocnema . In addition, persistent drought conditions in southwestern Colorado throughout the 1980s probably contributed to the population declines. Conservation recommendations include strict enforcement of the ban against collecting pursuant to the Endangered Species Act, careful monitoring of known B. acrocnema sites, and possible translocations. Extreme measures beyond these will be costly and may be inappropriate for this relict species, which has an unknown capacity to persist in the face of local weather fluctuations and predicted regional warming trends.     

Comparison of the 1-hr and 8-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone using Models-3

In 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency revised the National Ambient Air Quality Standard governing ozone (O3), adding an 8-hr standard of 0.08 ppm and phasing out the 1-hr requirement of 0.12 ppm. The 8-hr standard is intended to provide greater protection for human health. This research examines spatial and temporal patterns of exceedances of the standards using monitoring data and modeled estimates. The Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and Models-3 framework were used to estimate hourly O3 concentrations for 4-km resolution in the Maryland/Virginia/Delaware/Washington, DC, and northern Georgia domains. Results reveal that the spatial and temporal nature of compliance is considerably different under the 8-hr standard. In the modeling simulations, the 8-hr standard was exceeded 2-5.2 times more often and in a 1.8-16.2 times larger area than the 1-hr standard. The 8-hr standard was exceeded in areas that generally comply with the 1-hr standard and are not well covered by the monitoring network. These results imply that a larger population resides in areas with unhealthy O3 levels than noncompliance with the original 1-hr standard suggests. For the MD/VA/DE/DC domains, 80 and 98% of the total population live in areas with 8-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) exceedances for the 1990 and 1995 episodes, respectively.     

Predicting invasion risk using measures of introduction effort and environmental niche models.

The Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) is native to east Asia, is established throughout Europe, and is introduced but geographically restricted in North America. We developed and compared two separate environmental niche models using genetic algorithm for rule set prediction (GARP) and mitten crab occurrences in Asia and Europe to predict the species' potential distribution in North America. Since mitten crabs must reproduce in water with >15% per hundred salinity, we limited the potential North American range to freshwater habitats within the highest documented dispersal distance (1260 km) and a more restricted dispersal limit (354 km) from the sea. Applying the higher dispersal distance, both models predicted the lower Great Lakes, most of the eastern seaboard, the Gulf of Mexico and southern extent of the Mississippi River watershed, and the Pacific northwest as suitable environment for mitten crabs, but environmental match for southern states (below 35 degrees N) was much lower for the European model. Use of the lower range with both models reduced the expected range, especially in the Great Lakes, Mississippi drainage, and inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. To estimate the risk of introduction of mitten crabs, the amount of reported ballast water discharge into major United States ports from regions in Asia and Europe with established mitten crab populations was used as an index of introduction effort. Relative risk of invasion was estimated based on a combination of environmental match and volume of unexchanged ballast water received (July 1999-December 2003) for major ports. The ports of Norfolk and Baltimore were most vulnerable to invasion and establishment, making Chesapeake Bay the most likely location to be invaded by mitten crabs in the United States. The next highest risk was predicted for Portland, Oregon. Interestingly, the port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, which has a large shipping volume, had a low risk of invasion. Ports such as Jacksonville, Florida, had a medium risk owing to small shipping volume but high environmental match. This study illustrates that the combination of environmental niche- and vector-based models can provide managers with more precise estimates of invasion risk than can either of these approaches alone.