基于D-S证据理论的飞行事故预测模型

为提高飞行事故的预测精度,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的组合预测模型.该模型分别采用时间序列、BP神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机对飞行事故率进行预测,通过对待测年份之前的飞行事故的预测误差分析,计算出相应的基本信任分配函数,并借助D-S证据理论对三种预测模型进行融合,将融合结果作为飞行事故率预测模型的权重,从而得出待测年份的飞行事故预测结果.以美国空军A类飞行事故数据对该组合模型进行验证,结果表明组合预测模型能够较准确地预测飞行事故率,且模型精度优于任何单一预测模型.     

基于物种敏感性分布的保护海水水生生物的石油烃急性毒性基准研究

溢油污染对水生生物的危害以及分散剂使用对原油毒性的影响一直是溢油应急响应及危害评估时关注的焦点。本研究收集筛选了基于标准测试方法的90组急性毒性数据(LC50/EC50),其中37组毒性数据来自15种油品的水容纳组分(water accommodated fraction,WAF),53组来自11种化学分散剂与15种油品的分散液(chemically dispersed water accommodated fraction,CEWAF),应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)方法推导了基于水生生物保护的石油烃总量(total petroleum hydrocarbon,TPH)的急性毒性基准值,同时还分析了分散剂和不同暴露方式对原油毒性的影响。结果显示,以名义浓度(nominal concentrations)所表示的毒性结果可能高估分散剂对原油毒性的影响,基于CEWAF和WAF的LC50/EC50所推导的有害浓度(HC5s)差异较小,计算出的保护水生生物TPH急性毒性基准值为0.38 mg·L-1(TPH);鱼类对原油污染的响应明显敏感于甲壳类;同时证明了SSD方法在溢油毒性评估及风险阈值推导中具有可行性和合理性。     

长江上游高山森林小溪流磷输出及其汇流特征

长江上游水源涵养地高山森林溪流磷输出不仅是森林生态系统磷输出的主要形式,而且与下游水域环境密切相关,但对此人们一直缺乏必要的关注.因此,为了解森林溪流磷的最大输出潜力,于2013年8月中旬溪流流量较大的季节,调查了海拔3600~3700 m的高山森林18条溪流的磷输出及其从源头到尽头的变化特征.结果表明:在所选样地内,溪流中总磷储量为8120.1 mg,单位水体面积储量为5.4 mg·m-2,单位水体面积总输出量为150.3 kg·km-2·d-1,单位集水区面积总输出量为0.2 kg·km-2·d-1,集水区潜在年输出总量约为67.7 kg·km-2.溪流中总磷含量维持在检出限0.01~0.6 mg·L-1之间,所有溪流上游总磷含量和储量均明显高于下游;溪流尽头总磷储量仅为源头总储量的29.2%,尽头平均浓度为源头平均浓度的30.9%.这些结果表明,高山森林溪流具有明显的磷输出特征,但从源头到尽头的汇流过程中,溪流水体能显著降低总磷含量及储量,表现出明显的自净能力,这也是高山森林生态系统养分传输纽带的重要体现.     

Characteristics and anthropogenic sources of carbonyl sulfide in Beijing

Atmosphericmixing ratios of carbonyl sulfide (COS) in Beijingwere intensivelymeasured from March 2011 to June 2013. COS mixing ratios exhibited distinct seasonal variation, with a maximumaverage value of 849 ± 477 pptv in winter and a minimal value of 372 ± 115 pptv in summer. The seasonal variation of COS was mainly ascribed to the combined effects of vegetation uptake and anthropogenic emissions. Two types of significant linear correlations (R² > 0.66) were found between COS and CO during the periods from May to June and from October to March, with slopes (ΔCOS/ΔCO) of 0.72 and 0.14 pptv/ppbv, respectively. Based on the emission ratios of COS/CO from various sources, the dominant anthropogenic sources of COS in Beijing were found to be vehicle tire wear in summer and coal burning in winter. The total anthropogenic emission of COS in Beijing was roughly estimated as 0.53 ± 0.02 Gg/year based on the local CO emission inventory and the ΔCOS/ΔCO ratios.     

The Second Sino-FrenchWorkshop on Atmospheric Environment (Orleans, December 2010): Preface

A sound scientific understanding of the factors affecting the environment is essential to guarantee the sustainable development of the world's economic and societal activities.Many environmental issues,such as air quality and climate change are intimately linked to atmospheric chemistry and physics,therefore research in these areas is of tremendous importance.Both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions contribute greatly to the chemical composition of the atmosphere.Even though the atmosphere is a self-cleaning system through its photochemically-driven reactions,the hazardous direct impacts of primary and secondary pollutants on human health and ecosystems are observable and have been evidenced on different scales from local to global (e.g.ozone hole,climate change,air quality…).The chemical processing of the species present in the atmosphere is one of the most important players in driving the evolution of the atmosphere.     

河流横向混合系数的室内试验

本文在实验室矩形平直明渠内,对横向混合系数的公式结构进行了探讨.在室内模型内做大量的示踪试验,获得63组实验数据,在此基础上确定了关于横向混合系数的准数关系式,并对该式作了分析.由室内模型所归纳的公式和结论,可为天然顺直河流横向混合系数的确定提供参考.     

Use of gamma-irradiation pretreatment for enhancement of anaerobic digestibility of sewage sludge

The effects of γ-irradiation pretreatment on anaerobic digestibility of sewage sludge was investigated in this paper. Parameters like solid components, soluble components, and biogas production of anaerobic digestion experiment for sewage sludge were measured. The values of these parameters were compared before and after γ-irradiation pretreatment. Total solid (TS), volatile solid (VS), suspended solid (SS), volatile suspended solid (VSS), and average floc size of samples decreased after γ-irradiation treatment. Besides, floc size distribution of sewage sludge shifted from 80–100 μm to 0–40 μm after γ-irradiation treatment at the doses from 0 to 30 kGy, which indicated the disintegration of sewage sludge. Moreover, microbe cells of sewage sludge were ruptured by γ-irradiation treatment, which resulted in the release of cytoplasm and increase of soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD). Both sludge disintegration and microbe cells rupture enhanced the subsequent anaerobic digestion process, which was demonstrated by the increase of accumulated biogas production. Compared with digesters fed with none irradiated sludge, the accumulated biogas production increased 44, 98, and 178 mL for digesters fed sludge irradiated at 2.48, 6.51, and 11.24 kGy, respectively. The results indicated that γ-irradiation pretreatment could effectively enhance anaerobic digestibility of sewage sludge, and correspondingly, could accelerate hydrolysis process, shorten sludge retention time of sludge anaerobic digestion process.     

青藏高原天山报春高寒湿地种群的花期资源分配

研究了青藏高原东部海北高寒湿地植物天山报春的花期资源分配.有性繁殖的天山报春根系投资较低(22.6%),地上投资大约是地下投资的4倍,花期繁殖投资占20.8%,具有相对较大的地上投资.天山报春对繁殖、茎叶和根系的绝对投资和相对投资均具有极为明显的个体效应,绝对投资和茎叶的相对投资均随着个体大小线性增加,而繁殖和根系的相对投资线性降低.天山报春各器官间资源的绝对投资均表现为相关生长,相对资源分配均为负相关,在繁殖和营养、繁殖和根系以及繁殖和茎叶器官间都表现为权衡关系,但在茎叶和根系间不为权衡关系.和资源分配一致,天山报春的繁殖适合度存在明显的个体大小依赖性.结合影响植物资源分配的各因素,探讨了个体效应在解释资源分配中的重要意义.     

The differential impact of air pollutants on acute urticaria and chronic urticaria: a time series analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Several studies have revealed a relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and the exacerbation of certain skin conditions. This study...     

Immobilization of fluoride in the sediment of mine drainage stream using loess,Northwest China

Fluoride (F) is a necessary trace element in the human body, which would lead to some diseases if human body lacks or accumulates it excessively (1–1.5 mg d−1). Fluoride contamination in sediments has become more and more serious, which has potential hazards to human body. In this paper, a novel sorbent (loess) was proposed to immobilize trace element F in sediment. The effectiveness of loess on F stabilization was evaluated by decreasing F bioavailability in contaminated sediment. The loess and the sediment were mixed at different proportions for stabilization. About 70 days after the application of loess, the soil column was subject to simulate acid rain leaching test to observe the leaching-migration of F, which can be used to predict the leaching migration of F in the study area. The results showed that when the loess dose was 5 kg, the loess converted highly effective fractions of F (i.e., water-soluble and exchangeable fractions) into a more stable state (i.e., residual state). After 30 days of leaching with HNO3 solution with pH at 3.0, the lowest concentration of F was found in the leachate of soil column with 2 kg loess application. Correlation analysis showed that the F concentration in soil column profile was affected by CaCO3, EC, pH, and OM, of which, pH and CaCO3 have greater influence than other factors.