Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Plant Phenology in Western Canada: Trends and Links to the View From Space

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.     

Suspended particulates and bioaerosols emitted from an agricultural non-point source

Suspended particulate and bioaerosol levels were measured at three sites downwind of an agricultural non-point source during the wheat harvesting season. Suspended particulates were detected at mean values ranging from 10000 to 2420 micrograms m-3 at distances of from 20 to 60 m downwind of the source, respectively. Airborne viable bacterial counts were recorded at mean values ranging between 10(4) and 10(6) colony forming units (cfu) m-3, whereas, Gram negative (Gram -ve) bacteria varied between 10(3) and 10(5) cfu m-3. Fungi levels were detected at mean values varying between 10(5) and 10(6) cfu m-3. However, streptomycetes were found at lower counts than those recorded for viable bacteria and fungi. Total viable bacteria, Gram -ve bacteria, fungi and streptomycetes associated hay fragments were determined at mean values of 1.5 x 10(6), 1.6 x 10(3), 2.2 x 10(4) and 6 x 10(3) cfu g-1 of hay, respectively. Cladosporium, white and red yeasts as well as Alternaria were the predominant airborne fungi, whereas, Alternaria was the dominant species associated with hay fragments. Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter and Enterobacteriaceae were the dominant Gram -ve bacteria. The most common fungal genera, such as Cladosporium and Fusarium (minor short axis), as well as Streptomyces species have an aerodynamic diameter (dae) of less than 5 microns, which can penetrate and deposit in the alveoli. Farmers and nearby residents are exposed to high levels of organic dust and bioaerosols during the wheat harvesting season. This may cause health problems in exposed persons based on toxic or allergic reactions.     

Speciation of arsenic using solid phase extraction cartridges

Various solid phase extraction (SPE) cartridges were investigated for speciation of arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(v)], monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA). Cartridges containing different types of sorbent materials were tested for arsenic retention and elution characteristics. Alumina cartridges were found to completely retain all the four target arsenic species, and are suitable for removal and preconcentration purposes. For speciation analysis, different arsenic species were separated on the basis of their selective retention on and elution from specific cartridges. DMA was retained on a resin-based strong cation exchange cartridge and eluted with 1.0 M HCl. MMA and As(v) were both retained on a silica-based strong anion exchange cartridge and sequentially eluted with 60 mM acetic acid (for MMA) and 1.0 M HCl [for As(v)]. As(III) was not retained on either cartridge and remained in solution. Arsenic species in solution and those eluted from the cartridges were subsequently quantified by using flow injection with hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectrometry (FI-HGAFS) and hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (FI-HGAAS). A detection limit of 0.05 microg L(-1) arsenic in water sample was achieved using HGAFS. An application of the method was demonstrated at a drinking water treatment facility. As(III) and As(v) species were determined in water at various stages of treatment. The method is suitable for routine determination of trace levels of arsenic in drinking water to comply with more stringent environmental regulations.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

Dissolved and Total Copper in a Coal Ash Effluent and Receiving Stream: Assessment of In Situ Biological Effects

An in situ chemical and biological study was conducted in the lower Muskingum River (southeast Ohio, U.S.A.) to evaluate potential effects of copper (Cu) discharged from a coal ash effluent. Effluent total Cu, dissolved Cu, TSS and pH measurements were performed monthly during January-December 1995. Benthic macroinvertebrates were sampled at five river locations using artificial substrate samplers, and in situ Cu analyses were conducted. Effluent Cu (total) ranged from 8 to 142 microg L(-1) (mean = 58 microg L(-1)), but dissolved Cu never exceeded 78 microg L(-1) (mean = 20 microg L(-1)). The mean ratio of dissolved Cu to total Cu in these samples was 32%. Total Cu concentrations at the biological sampling sites adjacent to the effluent discharge were higher than levels at ambient sites, but dissolved Cu levels were similar among all sites. The macroinvertebrate community proximal to the coal ash effluent had the highest number of taxa and total number of individuals; a high number of mayfly and caddis fly taxa; and the highest Invertebrate Community Index score. The high water velocity of the discharge (which likely contained particulate organic matter) apparently created a favorable microhabitat that, combined with Cu-complexing constituents in the discharge, superceded potential adverse effects of high Cu levels. This study emphasizes the importance of instream biological data when obtained in conjunction with chemical analyses.     

Multi-objective, decision-based assessment of a water quality monitoring network in a river system

Water quality monitoring network design has historically tended to use experience, intuition and subjective judgement in locating monitoring stations. Better design procedures to optimize monitoring systems need to simultaneously identify significant planning objectives and consider a number of social, economic and environmental constraints. The consideration of multiple objectives may require further decision analysis to determine the preference weights associated with the objectives to aid in the decision-making process. This may require the application of an optimization study to extract such information from decision makers or experts and to evaluate the overall effectiveness of locating strategies. This paper assesses the optimal expansion and relocation strategies of a water quality monitoring network using a two-stage analysis. The first stage focuses on the information retrieval of preference weights with respect to the designated planning objectives. With the aid of a pre-emptive goal programming model, data analysis is applied to obtain the essential information from the questionnaire outputs. The second stage then utilizes a weighted multi-objective optimization approach to search for the optimal locating strategies of the monitoring stations in the river basin. Practical implementation is illustrated by a case study in the Kao-Ping River Basin, south Taiwan.     

Applying mathematical programming to reserve selection

During the last 10–15 years heuristic methods have been developed for problems in optimal reserve selection. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that heuristics will find optimal solutions. In recognizing this limitation, analysts have formulated reserve selection problems as set covering problems, for which matrix reduction and integer (0/1) programming can be used to find optimal solutions. In this paper we restate the set covering formulation and review solution techniques. A new 0/1 programming model, which is a generalization of the set covering model, is then presented and applied to a hypothetical reserve selection problem. Objectives of minimizing the number of sites selected and maximizing the number of species represented are addressed. Solutions which characterize the tradeoffs between these objectives provide a rich set of information for planners and decision makers. Applications of mathematical programming to related problems in land use planning and forestry are also discussed.     

Optimal and suboptimal control of anaerobic digesters

Anaerobic digester failure due to entry of inhibitors or sudden changes in the feed substrate concentration may be encompassed beneficially by applying optimal control theory. An almost proportional relationship between the dilution rate and the methane production rate leads to a simple suboptimal control law with only minor loss in performance, after the occurrence of the above mentioned events.     

Integrated assessment of potential health impact of global environmental change: Prospects and limitations

Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.