Undue concentration of research and education: multi-criteria decision approach to assess jurisdiction eligibility for NSF funding

Research and education tend to concentrate in specific geographical areas, while many jurisdictions receive limited federal research funding. This has resulted in reduced opportunity for students as well as limited ability of science to influence solving problems at the jurisdiction level. The National Science Foundation’s Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was intended to address the “undue concentration of research and education” by providing direct funding to improve research infrastructure, hire researchers, develop outreach, and to enhance local research capacity. Despite many successful outcomes attributed to EPSCoR, the aim and the execution of the program have generated controversy. Decision analytic tools can provide a systematic approach to EPSCoR prioritization that improves transparency and addresses the program’s intent. The wording of NSF’s mission and EPSCoR legislation suggest the intent of maximizing NSF’s benefit to the nation by directly supporting scientific research product across all jurisdictions and by supporting development of competitive scientific capabilities within particular jurisdictions. These components may be quantified via data-driven metrics producing indicators of ultimate benefit. Using illustrative scenarios within a multi-criteria decision model, we explore how such decision models may generate insights and how their guidance compares with current eligibility determinations.     

Statistical analysis of trends in organic pollution and pollution by nutrients at selected Danube river stations

The paper describes an application of a statistical analysis for estimating long-term trends in pollutant concentrations of selected pollutants in the Danube river. The results show the changes of concentrations of NH(4)(+)-N, NO(3)(-)-N, PO(4)(3-)-P, total P, BOD(5) and COD(Cr) in a ten year period with the aim to find how the concentrations vary in the whole stretch of this river. The study was based on the data collected in the frame of Transnational Monitoring Network of the ICPDR. To obtain plausible results we have chosen statistical methods, such as tests based on the Spearman correlation coefficient and median regression, which are not sensitive to departures from normality as high skewness or outliers.     

The ratio between nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide total emissions as precursors of tropospheric hydroxyl content evolution

The Main Geophysical Observatory 2D channel photochemical model is used to study the behavior of tropospheric OH within the 30–60°N zonal belt in relation to changing NO_X and CO emissions. The changes of tropospheric OH as a function of the contributions by NO_X and CO emissions during the period 1850–2050 are calculated. Our estimations show that the largest annual increment of total tropospheric OH within the belt considered occurs in the 1985–1995 period, about 0.27% yr⁻¹. Based on scenarios of tropospheric pollution emissions in the first half of 21st century, the total tropospheric OH content will increase more slowly, by 0.12–0.15% yr⁻¹. The maximum growth of OH concentration occurs close to air pollution locations—in the lower troposphere during 1850–1995 but in the upper troposphere in the 21st century when the NO_X source from subsonic aircraft increases faster than the surface source.     

Networks and spatial segregation in the production of urban poverty in São Paulo

This article discusses the importance of social networks as survival strategies, testing the impact of segregation on the structure and organisation of personal networks of low-income individuals. It presents preliminary results of an ongoing study on personal networks of individuals living in situations of poverty in São Paulo. We analyse the characteristics of 89 personal networks of poor individuals living in three urban locations, characterised by different social contents and different contexts of segregation. The results indicate a considerable heterogeneity of networks (in terms of size, diversity of sociability spheres, among other dimensions) and a strong localism, which is commonly found in the three different urban contexts. At the same time, the analysis suggests a low impact of segregation and a more complex relationship between networks and space than previously described by the international literature.     

Climate justice: framing a new discourse in Brazil

In this article, we evaluate to what extent the Climate Justice discourse has been associated by the press to extreme climate events in Brazil. The text is based on the examination of articles published by important newspapers in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, after two major rain events which produced floods and landslides in these two cities. Based on these findings, we suggest that the adoption of the Climate Change discourse in Brazil could produce three main positive outcomes: improve the discourse's acceptance in the international arena, increase the chances that the claims of affected groups are heard by Brazilian government, and turn current policies designed to correct effects of extreme climate events into structural policies designed to reduce vulnerability and to adapt to Climate Change.     

Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Comparison of approaches to weighting of multiple criteria for selecting equipment to optimize performance and safety

Nowadays every piece of working equipment and tools has to comply with safety standards and laws. This study investigated multi-criteria methods for selecting working equipment in order to optimize performance and occupational safety. The multi-criteria decision-making (MDCM) method was applied to the problem of selecting optimal working equipment using four different criterion weighting approaches (direct weighting, revised Simos procedure, Fuller’s triangle and analytic hierarchy process). Groups of economic, technical and safety criteria were defined and five weighting scenarios were developed. Although the four weighting methods produced similar results, in some situations they produced different criterion weighting factors. The final output of the MCDM method was the identification of the optimal forklift in the five weighting scenarios. Although we have applied the MCDM method to a forklift selection problem, it can be applied to all sorts of working equipment in contexts where economic, technical and safety selection criteria can be identified.     

Multiscale approach to the security of hardware supply chains for energy systems

While the cybersecurity field has focused primarily on software and network security, threats and vulnerabilities of hardware device supply chains are growing concerns. Of particular importance and interest in this vein is the way in which semiconductors and other electronic devices are increasingly deployed to support energy distribution, storage, and control at a variety of scales. Future smart grid supply chains must be secured to prevent cyber attacks from affecting energy infrastructure, and the societal and economic functions on which they depend. This perspective paper calls for a multiscale approach to address modeling and decision-making for energy system hardware supply chains. A multiscale approach, as discussed in this paper, can facilitate resilience of supply chains across the life cycles of these systems, through low- and high-tech techniques to monitor and act on the supply chain. This can incorporate both qualitative and quantitative factors to suit the variety of stakeholders, geographic scales, organizational levels, and planning and operational time horizons.