Multiple-criteria decision-aiding framework to analyze and assess the governance of sustainability

Past and present disasters and scandals, such as the BP Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the Servier Mediator (Benfluorex) scandal in 2009 and the Enron collapse in 2001, have uncovered weaknesses in governance issues. The authors argue that there is a need to develop methods and tools to diagnose and assess the governance of organizations with respect to Sustainable Development (SD). However, this task remains difficult due to the fact that it is difficult to appraise the quality of governance. The authors propose a protocol to diagnose and analyze the governance of SD and explore the use of multiple-criteria decision-aiding methods to achieve this task. Two aggregation methods to assess the global governance are proposed: (1) The identification of a final governance index for an Organization. This method helps in establishing a global diagnosis of the quality of the governance of an Organization with respect to SD challenges. The governance index is based on the calculation of three indexes: the partial opportunity index, the partial risk index and the partial equilibrium index. (2) The ranking of a set of Organizations according to their governance of SD. This method aims at assessing a set of Organizations based on a pairwise comparison according to a set of criteria that represents the seven domains of the ISO 26000 norm (ISO 26000—Guidance on social responsibility, 2010). This method is based on the outranking aggregation approach ELECTRE III. A practical example is used to illustrate two methods of governance assessment.     

Clustering of aerosols in atmospheric turbulent flow

A mechanism of formation of small-scale inhomogeneities in spatial distributions of aerosols and droplets associated with clustering instability in the atmospheric turbulent flow is discussed. The particle clustering is a consequence of a spontaneous breakdown of their homogeneous space distribution due to the clustering instability, and is caused by a combined effect of the particle inertia and a finite correlation time of the turbulent velocity field. In this paper a theoretical approach proposed in Elperin et al. (2002) Phys Rev E 66:036302 is further developed and applied to investigate the mechanisms of formation of small-scale aerosol inhomogeneities in the atmospheric turbulent flow. The theory of the particle clustering instability is extended to the case when the particle Stokes time is larger than the Kolmogorov time scale, but is much smaller than the correlation time at the integral scale of turbulence. We determined the criterion of the clustering instability for the Stokes number larger than 1. We discussed applications of the analyzed effects to the dynamics of aerosols and droplets in the atmospheric turbulent flow.     

Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.     

Risk and resilience lessons from Venice

In the history of disasters in Venice, there are implications for modern times in terms of complex systems management and emerging threats, in particular from examples of risk management and resilience achieved by the Venetian state during outbreaks of the plague. In fourteenth century Venice, risk assessment the way we practice it today would fail to provide meaningful recommendations to reduce the casualty rate of the plague epidemic because the cause and transmission of the disease was not understood. Instead, a set of systemic actions across the social, economic, and transportation networks of the city taken by officials and doctors eventually slowed and arguably stopped the spread of the disease. These latter actions are an early example of what is now considered resilience management. Resilience management improves a complex system’s ability to prepare, absorb, recover, and adapt to unexpected threats and does so by address the capabilities at a system, rather than component, level. Resilience management can be a guide to addressing current issues of population growth and rising sea level in modern day Venice and across the globe. This paper calls for integration of resilience assessment in comprehensive risk and resilience management framework.     

Cryptocurrency: governance for what was meant to be ungovernable

Cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionize the exchange of information and money through blockchain and distributed ledger technologies. Despite the promise of such underlying technologies, their reliance upon distributed consensus processes to approve software updates raises the potential for governance failures to destabilize a given cryptocurrency. These governance failures, known as ‘hard forks,’ can separate a cryptocurrency into two rival camps. Where such events can destabilize a given cryptocurrency’s value, and instill distrust in the capacity of a cryptocurrency to survive as a reliable vehicle of exchange, it is imperative for the cryptocurrency community to improve their governance processes and limit the potential for hard forks to occur. While the distributed nature of cryptocurrency governance makes any traditional governing process unlikely to succeed, anticipatory approaches that establish thresholds and metrics to determine when software reform is necessary may help alleviate the governance failures presented by many hard forks.     

Desertification in Russia: Problems and solutions (an example in the Republic of Kalmykia-Khalmg Tangch)

During the second half of the 20th century Kalmykia has undergone severe desertification. Under Soviet rule, rangelands were increasingly devoted to animal production, and pastures were converted to cropland in a campaign to increase crops. Pastures were grazed two to three times their sustainable production, saiga populations and habitat greatly decreased, more than 17 million ha were subjected to wind erosion, 380,000 ha were transformed into moving sands, and 106,000 ha were ruined by secondary salinization and waterlogging. By the 1990s almost 80% of the Republic had undergone desertification, and 13% had been transformed into a true desert. In 1986 the General Scheme of Desertification Control was formulated. The scheme called for rotating pastures, reclaiming blown sand using silviculture, tilling overgrazed pastures and sowing fodder plants, and developing water supplies for pastures. In its early years the scheme has been successful. But the management of restored pastures usually reverts to the same farms responsible for the poor conditions, and there is great apprehension that degradation could reoccur. This case study concludes that the general cattle and agriculture development in Kalmykia is unviable for ecological and economic reasons, that Kalmykia should implement an adaptive policy oriented toward conservation and accommodating the interrelation and variability of land resources, that the desertification problem can be solved only by changing agrarian policy as a whole, and that a desertification control program must become an integral part of economic and social development of the Republic.     

Sources of uncertainty in model predictions: lessons learned from the IAEA Forest and Fruit Working Group model intercomparisons

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), through the BIOMASS program, has provided a unique international forum for assessing the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty associated with environmental modeling. The methodology and guidance for dealing with parameter uncertainty have been fairly well developed and quantitative tools such as Monte-Carlo modeling are often recommended. The issue of model uncertainty is still rarely addressed in practical applications and the use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs (similar to what was done in IAEA model intercomparisons) is one of a few available techniques. This paper addresses the often overlooked issue of what we call 'modeler uncertainty,' i.e., differences in problem formulation, model implementation and parameter selection originating from subjective interpretation of the problem at hand. This study uses results from the Fruit and Forest Working Groups created under the BIOMASS program (BIOsphere Modeling and ASSessment). The greatest uncertainty was found to result from modelers' interpretation of scenarios and approximations made by modelers. In scenarios that were unclear for modelers, the initial differences in model predictions were as high as seven orders of magnitude. Only after several meetings and discussions about specific assumptions did the differences in predictions by various models merge. Our study shows that the parameter uncertainty (as evaluated by a probabilistic Monte-Carlo assessment) may have contributed over one order of magnitude to the overall modeling uncertainty. The final model predictions ranged between one and three orders of magnitude, depending on the specific scenario. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in fate and transport modeling and risk characterization.     

Advanced oxidation processes in azo dye wastewater treatment.

The chemical degradation of synthetic azo dyes color index (C.I.) Acid Orange 7, C.I. Direct Orange 39, and C.I. Mordant Yellow 10 has been studied by the following advanced oxidation processes: Fenton, Fenton-like, ozonation, peroxone without or with addition of solid particles, zeolites HY, and NH4ZSM5. Spectrophotometric (UV/visible light spectrum) and total organic carbon measurements were used for determination of process efficiency and reaction kinetics. The degradation rates are evaluated by determining their rate constants. The different hydroxyl radical generation processes were comparatively studied, and the most efficient experimental conditions for the degradation of organic azo dyes solutions were determined.