Multiple system modelling of waste management

Due to increased environmental awareness, planning and performance of waste management has become more and more complex. Therefore waste management has early been subject to different types of modelling. Another field with long experience of modelling and systems perspective is energy systems. The two modelling traditions have developed side by side, but so far there are very few attempts to combine them. Waste management systems can be linked together with energy systems through incineration plants. The models for waste management can be modelled on a quite detailed level whereas surrounding systems are modelled in a more simplistic way. This is a problem, as previous studies have shown that assumptions on the surrounding system often tend to be important for the conclusions. In this paper it is shown how two models, one for the district heating system (MARTES) and another one for the waste management system (ORWARE), can be linked together. The strengths and weaknesses with model linking are discussed when compared to simplistic assumptions on effects in the energy and waste management systems. It is concluded that the linking of models will provide a more complete, correct and credible picture of the consequences of different simultaneous changes in the systems. The linking procedure is easy to perform and also leads to activation of project partners. However, the simulation procedure is a bit more complicated and calls for the ability to run both models.     

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.     

SALSA: a simulation tool to assess ecological sustainability of agricultural production

In order to assess the ecological sustainability of agricultural production systems, there is a need for effective tools. We describe an environmental systems analysis tool called SALSA (Systems Ana/ysis for Sustainable Agriculture). It consists of substance/material flow models in which the simulation results are interpreted with life-cycle assessment methodology. The application of SALSA is demonstrated in a case study in which three different ways of producing pigs are compared with respect to energy input and the environmental impacts of global warming, eutrophication, and acidification. The scenario that combined a low-protein diet without soy meal with an improved manure-management technique with low nitrogen losses was the best for all impact categories studied. The strength of the SALSA models was their capacity to capture consequences of management options that had an influence on several processes on a farm, which enabled the type of complex studies we describe.     

Molecular orbital studies on brominated diphenyl ethers. Part I--conformational properties

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are widely used as additive flame retardants and quantities in the environment are on the rise. Because they are structurally related to polychlorinated biphenyls and also to thyroid hormones, there is serious concern that PBDEs may pose a danger to human health. Knowledge of their conformational properties is key to assessing their environmental fate and risk. The conformational properties of PBDEs were investigated by quantum chemical methods including semiempirical self-consistent field molecular orbital (SCF-MO), ab initio SCF-MO and density functional theory (DFT). Conformational analyses of model congeners 2,2',4,6'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether and 2,3,4,4',5,6-hexabromodiphenyl ether, based on energy maps calculated by semiempirical AM1 method, may indicate that all PBDE congeners except those with the tetra-ortho-bromination are conformationally flexible (or soft) due to low energy barriers for interconversion of stable conformers. The results of the conformational analyses are in conformity with recently published X-ray crystallographic data. For comparison with the results of the semiempirical method, higher level ab initio and DFT models were applied as well. The optimized geometries all lie well inside low energy regions on the maps and thus also ascertain the semiempirical calculations. According to computed geometric parameters and net atomic charges, the model B3LYP/3-21G* seemed to give better results than B3LYP/6-31G* and HF/6-31G*.     

Molecular orbital studies on brominated diphenyl ethers. Part II--reactivity and quantitative structure-activity (property) relationships

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are widely used as flame retardants and are increasingly turning up in the environment. Their structural similarities to polychlorinated biphenyls and thyroid hormones suggest they may be a risk to human health. The present study examines the reactivity of brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs) on the basis of the electronic structures as calculated by semiempirical AM1 self-consistent field molecular orbital (SCF-MO) method. Frontier orbital energies were used to elucidate the reactivity of BDEs in electrophilic, nucleophilic and photolytic reactions. From an examination of the frontier electron densities, the regioselectivity, or orientation, of metabolic reactions of BDEs was predicted. Furthermore, satisfactory quantitative structure-activity (property) relationship (QSAR and QSPR) models were derived to calculate gas chromatographic and ultraviolet spectral properties and luciferase induction activities from the AM1-computed electronic parameters.     

Evaluation of a tape-stripping technique for measuring dermal exposure to pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene

Epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of cancer among workers occupationally exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). As the dermal route is considered important for exposure to PAHs in the workplace, the aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a tape-stripping technique for monitoring dermal exposure to pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene. The tape-stripping method was evaluated by applying different concentrations of pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene directly onto tape strips (spiked tapes), clean glass plates, and on the skin of five volunteers. The glass plates were stripped using a single strip of tape and the skin of the volunteers was stripped with five consecutive strips of tape after 0 and 30 minutes. The method was also tested on five chimney sweeps at three exposure sites. High-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection was employed for the quantification of pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene. The mean recovery from the spiked tapes was 97% for pyrene and 93% for benzo(a)pyrene. The mean overall recovery from the glass plates was 88% and 76% for pyrene and 88 and 85% for benzo(a)pyrene. The recovery from human skin was 70% and 63% for pyrene and 60 and 54% for benzo(a)pyrene, after 0 and 30 minutes, respectively. A concentration gradient was clearly detected between the five consecutive strips. Detectable amounts of pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene were found on all chimney sweeps at all exposure sites. This method can thus be used to detect and quantify dermal exposure to pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene. The results also show that pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene may be taken up by the skin.     

Temporal and spatial trends of PCBs,DDTs, HCHs,and HCB in Swedish marine biota 1969–2012

In the 1960s, the Baltic Sea was severely polluted by organic contaminants such as PCBs, HCHs, HCB, and DDTs. Elevated concentrations caused severe adverse effects in Baltic biota. Since then, these substances have been monitored temporally and spatially in Baltic biota, primarily in herring (Clupea harengus) and in guillemot (Uria aalge) egg, but also in cod (Gadus morhua), perch (Perca fluviatilis), eelpout (Zoarces viviparous), and blue mussel (Mytilus edulis). These chemicals were banned in Sweden in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Since the start of monitoring, overall significant decreases of about 70–90 % have been observed. However, concentrations are still higher in the Baltic Sea than in, for example, the North Sea. CB-118 and DDE exceed the suggested target concentrations (24 µg kg^?1 lipid weight and 5 µg kg^?1 wet weight, respectively) at certain sites in some of the monitored species, showing that concentrations may still be too high to protect the most sensitive organisms.     

Photochemical transformations of tetrabromobisphenol A and related phenols in water

A method was developed for studies of the phototransformation at UV irradiation of aqueous solutions of tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), tribromobisphenol A (TriBBPA), tetrachlorobisphenol A (TCBPA), 2,4-dichlorophenol at various pHs as well as 2-chlorophenol, 2-bromophenol, 3,4-dichlorophenol and bisphenol A at pH 11. The absorbance spectra of the compounds and the emission spectra of the light-source were determined and used to calculate disappearance quantum yields of the photochemical reactions that were taking place. No major differences between the disappearance quantum yields of TBBPA and TCBPA were observed at pH 10, while the disappearance quantum yield of TriBBPA was approximately two times higher. The rate of decomposition of TBBPA was six times higher at pH 8 than at pH 6. Identification of the degradation products of TBBPA and TriBBPA, by GC-MS analysis and by comparison to synthesised reference compounds, indicated that TBBPA and TriBBPA decompose via different mechanisms. Three isopropylphenol derivatives; 4-isopropyl-2,6-dibromophenol, 4-isopropylene-2,6-dibromophenol and 4-(2-hydroxyisopropyl)-2,6-dibromophenol, were identified as major degradation products of TBBPA while the major degradation product of TriBBPA was tentatively identified as 2-(2,4-cyclopentadienyl)-2-(3,5-dibromo-4-hydroxyphenyl)propane.