The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective

Environment Systems and Decisions - Early warning systems for weather events are becoming widespread as technological capacities develop. For warnings to be effective, they must allow enough lead...     

Actinide analysis of a depleted uranium penetrator from a 1999 target site in southern Serbia

Following the detection of 236U in depleted uranium (DU) ammunition used during the Balkans conflict in the 1990s, concern has been expressed about the possibility that other nuclides from the nuclear fuel cycle and, in particular, transuranium nuclides, might be present in this type of ammunition. In this paper, we report the results of uranium and plutonium analyses carried out on a depleted uranium penetrator recovered from a target site in southern Serbia. Our data show the depleted nature of the uranium and confirm the presence of trace amounts of plutonium in the penetrator. The activity concentration of (239+240)PU, at 45.4+/-0.7 Bq kg(-1), is the highest reported to date for any penetrator recovered from the Balkans. This concentration, however, is comparable to that expected to be present naturally in uranium ores and, from a radiological perspective, would only give rise to a very small increase in dose to exposed persons compared to that from the DU itself.     

Restoration of badlands and natural capital: an application in Saldaña (Palencia,northern Spain)

The environment provides many necessary services for a plethora of human activities related to that are being acknowledged as our ecosystems degrade; therefore, ecosystem-based solutions are becoming increasingly more important. Hydrologic restorations (HRs) apply this type of ecosystem approach; there are multiple examples around the Mediterranean area executed since the beginning of the twentieth century. One good example of these restoration-type solutions can be seen in the badlands of Saldaña (Palencia, Spain). This case has been particularly successful in stopping gully erosion from badlands. Despite its importance for the well-being of the inhabitants of Saldaña and surroundings, the economic effects of these services which were put into place by this HR have never been assessed. In the present study, four different and compatible ecosystem restored services have been valued in monetary terms. For their aggregation, an innovative approach has been taken using the analytic hierarchy process methodology, so the weight of each ecosystem service (ES) can be determined. The economic flow of these ESs has been calculated in terms of annual income and updated values, from which natural capital increase in the population of Saldaña can be assessed. After analysing the results, it can be concluded that the village has earned more than seven million euros, which, in turn, generates important benefits to its inhabitants.     

The interspecific relationship between prevalence of blood parasites and sexual traits in birds when considering recent methodological advancements

Hamilton and Zuk (Science 218:384–387, 1982) supported their influential hypothesis of parasite-mediated sexual selection based on a positive interspecific correlation between the prevalence of blood parasites and the expression of male displays in birds. However, subsequent studies provided mixed support for this relationship after considering several confounding factors. Here, we revisit this fundamental prediction by refining the analyses through implementation of recent methodological advancements. First, we distinguish between prevalence data obtained through microscopic and molecular tools, as PCR-based detection methods may be more sensitive for detecting infection. Second, we use quantitative estimates of both acoustic and visual signals of males, in which color measurements adopt the perspective of avian vision. Third, applying modern phylogenetic comparative approaches, we correct for phylogenetic inertia as well as heterogeneity in sampling effort. Fourth, we distinguish between prevalence transition states, as we compare species with and without evidence of infection and also monitor changes in parasite prevalence only in species in which blood parasites are detected. We show that given the considerable variation among populations, the repeatability of prevalence at the within-species level is modest. We failed to detect a strong interspecific relationship between the prevalence of blood parasites and sexual traits. However, we found that an evolutionary increase from zero to non-zero prevalence is likely to be accompanied by an increase in trait expression in males, but further increase from non-zero prevalence to a higher level of infection tends to be associated with a reduced degree of trait elaboration. Our results provide some support to the Hamilton and Zuk hypothesis, but the relationship between blood parasites and male displays varies among traits depending on degree of infection.     

The effect of egg versus seston quality on hatching success,naupliar metabolism and survival of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calanus finmarchicus</Emphasis> in mesocosms dominated by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phaeocystis</Emphasis> and diatoms

We studied the effect of a developing Skeletonema marinoi/Phaeocystis spp. bloom on Calanus finmarchicus hatching success, early naupliar survival and metabolism. Our focus was (1) on the development of reproductive rates during a bloom initiation, peak and decline in relation to the production of potentially toxic algal metabolites and (2) on the proportional importance of female nutrition versus naupliar food environment for the production of viable nauplii. Despite polyunsaturated aldehyde (PUA) production by both S. marinoi and Phaeocystis sp., we did not observe any harmful effects on hatching success or naupliar survival and condition in any stages of the short-term (<1 week) algal bloom. Hatching success appeared to be controlled by egg lipid composition, while the beneficial effect of a high food concentration was reflected in naupliar RNA:DNA ratio, protein content and total production of viable nauplii. The egg lipids reflected seston lipids, indicating that the egg fatty acid composition was not modified by the females. Our results suggest that unselective feeding and/or retention of specific lipids can induce qualitative food limitation, although recruitment during the S. marinoi/Phaeocystis sp. bloom was high.     

Agriotes proximus and A. lineatus (Coleoptera: Elateridae): a comparative study on the pheromone composition and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene sequence

The presence of geranyl octanoate, previously found in pheromone gland extracts of Agriotes lineatus females, was also demonstrated in gland extracts of A. proximus females. Similar to A. lineatus, geranyl butanoate was present only in trace amounts in A. proximus female gland extracts. In air entrainment samples of female A. lineatus and A. proximus beetles, the relative ratio of geranyl butanoate and geranyl octanoate was higher than that in gland extracts. In addition, comparison of a segment of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene of feral specimens of A. lineatus and A. proximus showed >99% similarity. Both pheromone profile and nucleotide sequence analysis delineate close relationship between the investigated taxa and postulate taxonomic revision. Further studies on sympatric populations of A. lineatus and A. proximus are underway to investigate and better understand possible processes of species diversification.     

Egg-spot pattern rather than egg colour affects conspecific egg rejection in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus)

Brood parasitism could be a selective pressure on each female to have a type of egg that permits recognition. House sparrows (Passer domesticus) undergo conspecific brood parasitism and can recognise parasitic eggs. In this study, we analyse the effect of relative size in experimental parasitic eggs compared to the host eggs. We modified egg colour and the spot pattern to determine the influence of these characteristics on egg rejection. Furthermore, we examine whether egg rejection increases with “stimulus summation”. Our results show that egg rejection is not affected by relative egg size. However, changes in the spot pattern proved to exert the highest influence on egg rejection (32.4% of trials), significantly higher than when only egg colour is changed (3.8%). Therefore, our results suggest that parasitism may be a pressure favouring the maintenance of spotted eggs in house sparrow.