NEMS and MARKAL-MACRO Models for Energy-Environmental-Economic Analysis: A Comparison of the Electricity and Carbon Reduction Projections

The Annual Energy Outlook forecasts published by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy are based on results from the National Energy Modeling system (NEMS). This paper compares NEMS, which is used only in the U.S., with the U.S. version of MARKAL-MACRO (USMM) model, which is used in more than thirty-five countries. The two models predict similar results for the base 1999 US Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), but their results with carbon constraints are quite different. The differences of the models and those of their predictions are explained. USMM can be used to provide an alternative and complementary approach to projections of renewable technologies penetration and their potential in reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the USA.     

Health effects from the nuclear fuel cycle and other sources in perspective

The data base for each process of the nuclear fuel cycle has been updated as a part of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The BNL Energy System Network Simulator (ESNS) was modified to accommodate the new data, and methodology was developed for estimating population dose and health effects resulting from atmosphere releases of radioactive materials from the nuclear fuel cycle.Estimates of population dose and health effects were made using these new CONAES emission data and the new model for three scenarios out to the year 2000: (1) no reprocessing; (2) reprocessing, 1-year cooling; and (3) reprocessing, 5-year cooling. Results indicate that radon emissions from mining and milling of uranium bearing ores will have greater impacts than any other component in the open nuclear fuel cycle. The estimated number of health effects will depend, to a large extent, on the lung model mechanism assumed to induce cancer; i.e., either the smeared or the unsmeared model. The smear model and the linear relationship predict for scenario 1, 630; for scenario 2, 949; and for scenario 3, 854 lung cancers, respectively, using the new CONAES data.Epidemiologic data from six United States counties were correlated using a new statistical model (described in the text) in order to test the validity of the lung model and the linear relationship. Results do not support the high lung cancer correlations expected from the unsmear model and the linear relationship; therefore, it is concluded that low-dose mechanisms may be different from those developed from high-dose data. The best place to look for effects of low-dose radiation may be the less developed countries because of a reduction in the noise level caused by chemical pollutants.     

Electromagnetic field levels in the working environment in radio and TV stations

Electromagnetic field sources used for communication always have been subject of serious interest. There are many publications concerning exposure and risk assessment of the working in such environment. Results of epidemiological study performed in Bulgaria in the 1990's show exceeding of the maximal permissible values especially in radio stations for the personnel in 24 h working shift [Israel et al. (1992). Study of the electromagnetic in its influence on personnel working in radio and TV stations, Report, National Centre of Hygiene, Medical Ecology and Nutrition; Israel and Tomov (2001). Epidemiological study of the effects of radiofrequency radiation on operators in radio, TV and relay stations, Proceeding of the Eastern European Regional Meeting and Workshop “Measurements and Criteria for Standard Harmonization in the field of EMF Exposure” and WHO EMF Standards Harmonization Meeting, Varna, Bulgaria, 28 April—3 May, 2001, pp.145–153]. In the last years the situation is strongly influenced by the development of the technology which leads to changes in equipment in radio and TV stations, using lower power, facilitate the working regime. The paper presents data of exposure assessment of different professional groups in selected radio and TV stations. Assessment is being performed on basis of EMF parameters values and energetic load calculations according to the national legislation. Data are compared with the results of previous investigation to evaluate the new situation in this branch. Exposure levels are much lower than those in the previous study, and lower compared to the exposure limits, as well [Israel et al. (1992). Study of the electromagnetic in its influence on personnel working in radio and TV stations, Report, National Centre of Hygiene, Medical Ecology and Nutrition; Israel and Tomov (2001). Epidemiological study of the effects of radiofrequency radiation on operators in radio, TV and relay stations, Proceeding of the Eastern European Regional Meeting and␣Workshop “Measurements and Criteria for Standard Harmonization in the field of EMF Exposure” and WHO EMF Standards Harmonization Meeting, Varna, Bulgaria, 28 April—3 May, 2001, pp.145–153].     

Investigation into the genetics of fetal congenital lymphatic anomalies

Objective

Congenital lymphatic anomalies (LAs) arise due to defects in lymphatic development and often present in utero as pleural effusion, chylothorax, nuchal and soft tissue edema, ascites, or hydrops. Many LAs are caused by single nucleotide variants, which are not detected on routine prenatal testing.

Methods

Demographic data were compared between two subcohorts, those with clinically significant fetal edema (CSFE) and isolated fetal edema. A targeted variant analysis of LA genes was performed using American College of Medical Genetics criteria on whole exome sequencing (WES) data generated for 71 fetal edema cases who remained undiagnosed after standard workup.

Results

CSFE cases had poor outcomes, including preterm delivery, demise, and maternal preeclampsia. Pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants were identified in 7% (5/71) of cases, including variants in RASopathy genes, RASA1, SOS1, PTPN11, and a novel PIEZO1 variant. Variants of uncertain significance (VOUS) were identified in 45% (32/71) of cases. In CSFEs, VOUS were found in CELSR1, EPHB4, TIE1, PIEZO1, ITGA9, RASopathy genes, SOS1, SOS2, and RAF1.

Conclusions

WES identified pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants and VOUS in LA genes in 51% of fetal edema cases, supporting WES and expanded hydrops panels in cases of idiopathic fetal hydrops and fluid collections.