Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

The Economics of Small Photovoltaic Systems for Village Energy Supply

After several years of experimentation and demonstration, photovoltaic (PV) power is now firmly established for certain applications where reliable power is required in remote locations. The technology has recently matured to the point where PV is now an appropriate, cost-effective technology for village use. This paper reviews experience and presents economic comparisons between photovoltaic and conventional power systems. It is concluded that PV is cost-effective for individual home lighting and small loads such as radios, when compared with kerosene lamps and batteries. For mutiple uses PV is cost-effective compared with diesel generators for daily electricity demands up to around 20 kWh, depending on local conditions.     

Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Variability in larval development of the tropical reef fish Pomacentrus amboinensis (Pomacentridae): the parental legacy

The effects of food availability, female size, and social interactions on the quality of Pomacentrus amboinensis larvae at hatching were examined using two field-based experiments. In Experiment 1, food availability and female size significantly influenced size, eye diameter and levels of yolk reserves of larvae at hatching. Small females (47 to 52 mm standard length, SL) whose diets were not supplemented, produced the longest larvae (3.0 ± 0.01 mm total length, TL) with the least yolk reserves (50.1 ± 1.04 μm²). Irrespective of female size, those that received additional food produced larvae with the largest yolk-sacs (large females: 87.60 ± 1.53 μm²; small females: 80.14 ± 1.24 μm²). In Experiment 2, interactions with conspecifics had a greater affect on the somatic development of larvae at hatching than food availability. Increased social interactions resulted in larvae that were ⋍3% longer, with 2% greater head depth, than larvae from females that spawned in isolation on the experimental reefs. Fed females produced larvae with ⋍20% more yolk than larvae from females whose diets were not supplemented. All three factors (food availability, female size, and intensity of social interactions) tested within these experiments vary spatially and temporally among reefs. There is the potential, therefore, for larvae at the onset of the planktonic stage to vary in quality, level of development, and probability of survival. Received: 12 August 1996 / Accepted: 26 August 1996     

A study of the growth and decay of cigarette smoke NOx in ambient air under controlled conditions

The amount of NO₂ and NO produced by the machine smoking of cigarettes was determined for 15 commercial Canadian brands. Average yield of NO was 1.44 μmoles or about 13% of the average reported for American cigarettes. Levels of NO₂ were less than 12% of NO and were probably due to the oxidation of NO. In order to assess the contribution of tobacco smoke to levels of NO in ambient air, 5 brands of cigarettes were smoked in 27 cubic meter controlled environment room. Ventilation conditions were either 2.5 or 5.0 air changes per hour (ACH) and each experiment was replicated 3 times for a total of 30 experiments. Ventilation rates of 0.3 and 1.5 ACH were also selected in a second series of experiments in which only one brand of cigarette was smoked. Least squares estimates for the effective ventilation rates were obtained in the usual manner after linearizing the decay portion of the NO time curve. In each of the experiments, the regression explained at least 95% of the variation in the levels of NO with time. Loss of NO due to factors other than ventilation appeared to be constant within experimental error and averaged 2.22 ACH. Equilibrium values for NO were grossly underestimated when results from currently accepted proecedures for smoke analysis were used in modeling the growth and decay of NO. Goodness-of-fit was improved when equilibrium values were estimated based on observed levels in ambient air. This approach may be more suitable for evaluating the potential contribution of cigarette smoke to levels of indoor air pollutants.     

Risky health and safety habits related to perceived value of the future

Risk homeostasis theory postulates that people accept a specific level (target level) of risk in a given activity in return for benefits accruing from that activity. It follows that, if people expect a great deal from the future, the less likely they are to jeopardise it by taking risks in respect of their health and safety. One effective method for reducing target level of risk are incentives, and the available literature contains ample evidence of the effectiveness of incentives programmes in accident prevention. As incentives essentially imply an enhanced quality of life in the future, the question arises as to how expectations of the future may be related to health and safety habits. In order to explore the relationship between perceived value of the future and health and safety habits, an analysis of the psychological literature on individual differences in future time orientation/perspective is presented. Four factors are identified: (1) clear ideation of the future, (2) active planning for the future, (3) time pressure, and (4) optimistic expectations about events outside one's own control. It is hypothesised that factors (1) and (2) are associated with positive health and safety habits, while factors (3) and (4) may characterise individuals with relatively high target levels of physical risk. Research questions and procedures for the study of these relationships are discussed.     

The role of socio-economic data in food needs assessment and monitoring

This paper reviews six case studies examined as part of a project to review targetting methodologies employed by non-government organisations in Africa during the 1984-6 food crisis. Most agencies have not yet fully evaluated the role of data in informing policy decisions during their respective emergency programmes. The case studies presented reflect a wide variety of approaches to targetting emergency food aid that are based largely on the use of 'socio-economic' data. The recent emergency relief operations in Africa seem to indicate a change in relief agencies' approaches to the assessment and monitoring of needs of the affected populations. Earlier dependance on nutritional data has given way to an increasing reliance on the use of socio-economic indicators. There was a wide variation in the case studies of the type of indicators collected and utilised in needs assessment and monitoring. There were those who relied almost exclusively on nutritional data to target resources during the 1984-86 African crisis, and others whose experiences during that period lead them to attach more weight to socio-economic data. Other agencies appear to have recognised the problems of relying solely on nutritional data to target food aid during their 1984–86 emergency programmes, and thus more or less abandoned classical anthropometric surveys in their needs assessment and monitoring methodologies during this period. Thus nutritional data has a less significant role in the decision making process than previously had been the case.     

Comparative feeding preference of Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Echinoidea) for the invasive seaweed Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides (Chlorophyceae) and four other seaweeds

Laboratory experiments conducted during 1987 on Appledore Island, Maine, USA, tested whether feeding preference or the absence of an attractant was the cause for the occurrence of beds of Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides (herein referred to as Codium fragile) within rocky barrens grazed clear of kelp by the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. Consumption of C. fragile in single-diet experiments (1 seaweed/sea urchin) was highly variable and was not significantly different from that for several other seaweeds (Agarum cribrosum, Ascophyllum nodosum, Chondrus crispus, and Laminana saccharina) important in the field diet of the green sea urchin. In multiple-diet experiments (5 seaweeds/sea urchin) significantly less Codium fragile was eaten than Chondrus crispus, but significantly more Codium fragile was eaten than A. cribrosum. Chemosensory experiments suggest that C. fragile does not attract the sea urchin. Sea urchins are unable to detect C. fragile but will eat it when they come in contact with it.