Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

美国和五大湖双边共同关注区域的白肚燕(双色树燕)雏鸟的有机污染状况

白肚燕,又名双色树燕,栖居于五大湖流域中27个双边共同关注区域(AOCs),从2010年到2014年对其进行了污染物暴露风险评估,以协助管理者和监管者评估五大湖AOCs的污染状况。本文比较了AOCs和附近非AOCs雏鸟体内污染物浓度的差异。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟尸体中多氯联苯(PCB)和多溴联苯醚的含量分别为30%和33%,低于非AOCs的平均浓度。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟胃含物中多环芳烃(PAH)浓度和血浆中全氟化合物浓度分别为67%和64%,也低于非AOCs的平均浓度。但是与已有生殖效应记载的高PCB污染区相比,有些AOCs雏鸟尸体内的PCBs浓度只是存在小幅升高。一些AOCs食物中PAHs的浓度足够高以致引起可测量的生理响应。在AOCs中,全氟化合物全氟辛烷磺酸在血浆中的最高浓度出现在Raisin河(密歇根州,美国;几何平均数330 ng/mL),但远低于预估毒性的参考值(1 700 ng/mL)。之前有研究报道雏鸟胃含物中PAH和PCB的浓度以及尸体中PCBs的含量与沉积物中污染物的含量显著相关,从而可加强白肚燕在评估沉积物污染生物有效性方面的应用。
精选自Thomas W. Custer, Christine M. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana Goldberg, J. Christian Franson, Richard A. Erickson. Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes areas of concern. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 735–748, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3598
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3598/full
     

Dynamics of the Mite Communities (Acari: Parasitiformes) in Nests of the Parus major

The dynamics of nest-dwelling mites from the nests of the great tit in the protected area of Kamchia Mountain in Northeastern Bulgaria was investigated. The mite fauna inhabiting the nests of great tit differs significantly in terms of the degree of infestation, species richness, abundance and structure of communities in study years. There are statistically significant differences in the specimens’ number between 2014 and the other years 2012, 2013 and 2015. The mite species such as Dermanyssus gallinae, Androlaelaps casalis and Ornithonyssus sylviarum demonstrated significant changes in the abundance over the study years. A relation between the abundance of a species and the species diversity in the nests was not registered. Comparison of the annual dynamics of mites in the nests of great tit and the nests of semi-collared flycatcher for the same period of time and for the same environment, showed similarities—a significant fluctuation in the abundance of mites over the years and differences—in the species richness. Regarding the structure of the communities, both similarities and differences were recorded.