Prudence Jarrett  Frank J. Zadravecz  Jennifer O'Keefe  Marius Nshombo  Augustin Karume  Les Roberts 《Disasters》2020,44(2):390-407

Prospective, community-based surveillance systems for measuring birth, death, and population movement rates may have advantages over the ‘gold-standard’ retrospective household survey in humanitarian contexts. A community-based, monthly surveillance system was established in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in partnership with a local implementing partner and the national ministry of health. Data were collected on the occurrence of births, deaths, arrivals, and departures over the course of one year, and a retrospective survey was conducted at the end of the period to validate the information. Discrepancies between the two approaches were resolved by a third visit to the households with discordant records. The study found that the surveillance system was superior in terms of its specificity and sensitivity in measuring crude mortality and birth rates as compared to the survey, demonstrating the method's potential to measure accurately important population-level health metrics in an insecure setting in a timely, community-acceptable manner.  相似文献   

    

Muluken E. Muche  Sumathy Sinnathamby  Rajbir Parmar  Christopher D. Knightes  John M. Johnston  Kurt Wolfe  S. Thomas Purucker  Michael J. Cyterski  Deron Smith 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(3):486-506

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.  相似文献   

    

Andrew S. Jones  Allan A. Andales  Jos L. Chvez  Cullen McGovern  Garvey E.B. Smith  Olaf David  Steven J. Fletcher 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(2):201-211

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

    

Nicole F. Opalinski  Aditi S. Bhaskar  Dale T. Manning 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(1):68-81

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.  相似文献   

    

W.I. Ford  J.F. Fox  D.T. Mahoney  G. DeGraves  A. Erhardt  S. Yost 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(4):692-711

In the Ohio River (OR), backwater confluence sedimentation dynamics are understudied, however, these river features are expected to be influential on the system’s ecological and economic function when integrated along the river’s length. In the following paper, we test the efficacy of organic and inorganic tracers for sediment fingerprinting in backwater confluences; we use fingerprinting results to evidence sediment dynamics controlling deposition patterns in confluences used for wetland and marina functions; and we quantify the spatial extent of tributary drainages with wetland and marina features in OR confluences. Both organic and inorganic tracers statistically differentiate sediment from stream and river end‐members. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes produce greater uncertainty in fingerprinting results than inorganic elemental tracers. Uncertainty analysis of the nonconservative tracer term in the organic matter fingerprinting application estimates an apparent enrichment of the carbon stable isotopes during instream residence, and the nonconservativeness is quantified with a statistical approach unique to the fingerprinting literature. Wetland and marina features in OR confluences impact 42% and 11% of tributary drainage areas, respectively. Sediment dynamics show wetland and marina confluences experience deposition from river backwaters with longitudinally linear and nonlinear patterns, respectively, from sediment sources.  相似文献   

    

Nolan T. Townsend  David S. Gutzler 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(4):586-598

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.  相似文献   

    

Jessica M. Driscoll  Lauren E. Hay  Melanie K. Vanderhoof  Roland J. Viger 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(1):16-29

This study explores the viability of using simulated monthly runoff as a proxy for landscape‐scale surface‐depression storage processes simulated by the United States Geological Survey’s National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two different temporal resolution model codes (daily and monthly) were run in the NHM with the same spatial discretization. Simulated values of daily surface‐depression storage (treated as a decimal fraction of maximum volume) as computed by the daily Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System (NHM‐PRMS) and normalized runoff (0 to 1) as computed by the Monthly Water Balance Model (NHM‐MWBM) were aggregated to monthly and annual values for each hydrologic response unit (HRU) in the CONUS geospatial fabric (HRU; n = 109,951) and analyzed using Spearman’s rank correlation test. Correlations between simulated runoff and surface‐depression storage aggregated to monthly and annual values were compared to identify where which time scale had relatively higher correlation values across the CONUS. Results show Spearman’s rank values >0.75 (highly correlated) for the monthly time scale in 28,279 HRUs (53.35%) compared to the annual time scale in 41,655 HRUs (78.58%). The geographic distribution of HRUs with highly correlated monthly values show areas where surface‐depression storage features are known to be common (e.g., Prairie Pothole Region, Florida).  相似文献   

    

Sheila M.W. Reddy Ph.D.  Chloe Wardropper Ph.D.  Collin Weigel Ph.D.  Yuta J. Masuda  Seth Harden M.P.A.  Pranay Ranjan Ph.D.  Jackie M. Getson M.S.  Laura A. Esman M.S.  Paul Ferraro Ph.D.  Linda Prokopy Ph.D. 《Conservation Letters》2020,13(6):e12750

Emphasizing the economic and environmental benefits of conservation is business-as-usual for environmental organizations seeking to influence conservation behavior, but these message frames are rarely tested. We embedded a large message framing experiment into the recruitment for a conservation agriculture program targeting farmland owners in the Mississippi River Basin. We found that framed messages do not increase enrollment in the agricultural program—the desired conservation behavior—compared to an informational message (control) and may decrease enrollment among farmland owners not already using conservation practices (i.e., cover crops).  相似文献   

    

Ana Sofia Vaz  Ricardo A. Moreno-Llorca  João F. Gonçalves  Joana R. Vicente  Pablo F. Méndez  Eloy Revilla  Luis Santamaria  Francisco J. Bonet-García  João P. Honrado  Domingo Alcaraz-Segura 《Conservation Letters》2020,13(3):e12704

In the “digital conservation” age, big data from Earth observations and from social media have been increasingly used to tackle conservation challenges. Here, we combined information from those two digital sources in a multimodel inference framework to identify, map, and predict the potential for nature's cultural contributions to people in two contrasting UNESCO biosphere reserves: Doñana and Sierra Nevada (Spain). The content analysis of Flickr pictures revealed different cultural contributions, according to the natural and cultural values of the two reserves. Those contributions relied upon landscape variables computed from Earth observation data: the variety of colors and vegetation functioning that characterize Doñana landscapes, and the leisure facilities, accessibility features, and heterogeneous landscapes that shape Sierra Nevada. Our findings suggest that social media and Earth observations can aid in the cost-efficient monitoring of nature's contributions to people, which underlie many Sustainable Development Goals and conservation targets in protected areas worldwide.  相似文献   

    

Melissa N. Poulsen  Roni A. Neff  Peter J. Winch 《Local Environment》2017,22(11):1411-1427

Urban farming – a type of urban agriculture focused on entrepreneurial food production – serves multiple functions in neighbourhoods; yet these are not well delineated. Expectations for urban farming often centre on traditional measures of economic development, potentially overlooking other benefits. Through a qualitative case study conducted in Baltimore, Maryland, we sought to understand community perceptions regarding the ways in which urban farms can benefit cities. Interviews with residents, neighbourhood leaders, and urban farmers in three residential neighbourhoods with urban farms revealed the pathways by which community members view farms as improving neighbourhoods. Benefits stemmed from four primary changes urban farms made to study neighbourhoods: creation of public projects welcoming involvement, physical improvement of degraded space, production of local food, and creation of new businesses. These changes led to multiple perceived benefits including increased social connectedness, a transformed physical landscape, improved neighbourhood reputation, increased access to fresh produce, and educational, youth development, and employment opportunities. Our findings demonstrate the importance of a multifunctional paradigm that accounts for social and educational functions in assessing the value of urban farming and bring empirical evidence to the concept of multifunctional agriculture. Urban farms with strong social aims may appear to contribute little to economic development if measured using traditional indicators of success such as job creation or fiscal impacts, but provide numerous other benefits for community development.  相似文献