Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Linking predator and prey behaviour: contrasts between Antarctic fur seals and macaroni penguins at South Georgia

Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella and macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are the two main land-based krill Euphausia superba consumers in the northern Scotia Sea. Using a combination of concurrent at-sea (predator observations, net hauls and multi-frequency acoustics), and land-based (animal tracking and diet analysis) techniques, we examined variability in the foraging ecology of these sympatric top predators during the austral summer and autumn of 2004. Krill availability derived from acoustic surveys was low during summer, increasing in autumn. During the breeding season, krill occurred in 80% of fur seal diet samples, with fish remains in 37% of samples. Penguin diets contained the highest proportion of fish in over 20 years of routine monitoring (46% by mass; particularly the myctophid Electrona antarctica), with krill (33%) and amphipods (Themisto gaudichaudii; 21%) also occurring. When constrained by the need to return and feed their offspring both predator species foraged to the northwest of South Georgia, consistent with an area of high macrozooplankton biomass, but fur seals were apparently more successful at exploiting krill. When unconstrained by chick-rearing (during March) penguins foraged close to the Shag Rocks shelf-break, probably exploiting the high daytime biomass of fish in this area. Penguins and seals are able to respond differently to periods of reduced krill abundance (in terms of variability in diet and foraging behaviour), without detriment to the breeding success of either species. This highlights the importance of myctophid fish as an alternative trophic pathway for land-based predators in the Scotia Sea ecosystem.     

Characterization of a sex pheromone in a simultaneous hermaphroditic shrimp, Lysmata wurdemanni

Olfactory chemical cues have been described to play important roles in the control of mate recognition in many decapod crustaceans. However, we still know very little about the chemical characteristics of the cues that coordinate pre-copulative behaviour. In this study, we partially characterized a waterborne sex pheromone of a marine shrimp, Lysmata wurdemanni. Female moulting water was collected and ultrafiltered using 1,000 and 500-Da membranes, respectively, and analysed using HPLC with a Lichrosphere™ RP18 (C18) column. The sex pheromone is likely to be a molecule between 500 and 1,000 Da in size because behavioural bioassays showed that males responded to the supernatant of 500-Da and to the 1,000-Da filtrate, but did not respond to the supernatant of 1,000-Da or to the 500-Da filtrate. There was only one dominant peak (2.86 min) detectable in HPLC chromatograms of the supernatant of the 500-Da filtration. This peak showed a UV absorbance maximum at 274 nm, similar to the recently identified shore crab sex pheromone Uridine-di-phosphate (UDP). Behavioural bioassays confirmed that this peak is a bioactive component of a potential pheromone bouquet, but is different from UDP, which showed no bioactivity in Lysmata wurdemanni. Our results lay the foundation for future studies to purify and eventually identify this sex pheromone.     

Tetrodotoxin affects survival probability of rough-skinned newts (Taricha granulosa) faced with TTX-resistant garter snake predators (Thamnophis sirtalis)

Lethal chemical defenses in prey species can have profound effects on interactions with predators. The presence of lethal defenses in prey can correct the selective imbalance suggested by the life-dinner principle in which the fitness consequences of an encounter between predator and prey should be much greater for the prey species than the predator. Despite the apparent adaptive advantages of lethality the evolution of deadly prey presents a fundamental dilemma. How might lethal defenses confer an individual fitness advantage if both predators and prey die during interactions? We examined the interaction between the rough-skinned newt (Taricha granulosa), which contains a powerful neurotoxin called tetrodotoxin (TTX), and the common garter snake (Thamnophis sirtalis). In some sympatric populations, Th. sirtalis have evolved physiological resistance to TTX. Whether the newts’ toxin confers protection from snake predators or has been disarmed by the snakes’ physiological resistance has not yet been directly tested. In predator–prey trials, newts that were rejected by snakes had greater concentrations of TTX in their skin (4.52 ± 3.49 mg TTX/g skin) than those that were eaten (1.72 ± 1.53 mg TTX/g skin). Despite the plethora of taxa that appear to use TTX defensively, this is the first direct and quantitative demonstration of the antipredator efficacy of TTX. Because the survival probability of a newt (and thus fitness) is affected by individual TTX concentration, selection can drive the escalation of toxin levels in newts. The variable fitness consequences associated with both TTX levels of newts and resistance to TTX in snakes that may promote a strong and symmetrical coevolutionary relationship have now been demonstrated.     

Kleptoparasites: a twofold cost of group living for the colonial spider, Metepeira incrassata (Araneae, Araneidae)

Several species of kleptoparasitic and araneophagic spiders (Araneae: Family Theridiidae, Subfamily Argyrodinae) are found in colonial webs of the orb-weaving spider Metepeira incrassata (Araneae, Araneidae) from Mexico, where they steal food and/or prey upon their spider hosts. Census data from natural M. incrassata colonies reveal that the incidence of these species increases with colony size. This pattern may reflect the presence of several other orb-weaving spiders, each with their own kleptoparasitic species, invading larger M. incrassata colonies. As the number of these associated spiders increases, so does the density and number of Argyrodinae species in M. incrassata colonies, suggesting that associated spiders might reduce their own kleptoparasite load by building their webs within M. incrassata colonies. This represents a twofold cost to M. incrassata, as a field enclosure experiment revealed that a primarily kleptoparasitic species (Argyrodes elevatus) may reduce prey available to their hosts, but a kleptoparasitic/araneophagic species (Neospintharus concisus) inflicts high mortality upon M. incrassata. However, the cost of kleptoparasitism and predation by these species may be offset in part for M. incrassata individuals in large colonies by certain defensive mechanisms inherent in groups, i.e., “attack-abatement” and “selfish herd” effects. We conclude that increased occurrence of kleptoparasitic and/or predatory Argyrodinae spiders is a consequence of colonial web building and is an important potential cost of group living for colonial web-building spiders.     

Assessing reef fish assemblage structure: how do different stereo-video techniques compare?

Measures of fish abundance, assemblage composition and length were compared when sampled by baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo BRUV) and diver-operated stereo-video transects (stereo DOV) at the Houtman Abrolhos Islands and Ningaloo Reef. Species richness counts were 40% higher on stereo BRUV than stereo DOV. Stereo BRUVs also recorded a greater number of large-bodied targeted species in higher abundance than stereo DOV (e.g. Lethrinus nebulosus, Plectropomus leopardus) at the Houtman Abrolhos and at Ningaloo Reef. Many non-targeted species were also recorded in greater abundances on stereo BRUV than stereo DOV (e.g. Coris auricularis, Gymnothorax spp). Stereo DOV transects recorded a greater abundance of some small-bodied Pomacentridae, Labridae and Scaridae species than did stereo BRUV, particularly at Ningaloo Reef. This study demonstrates that choice of sampling technique for surveys of reef fish can lead to very different biological interpretations of fish assemblage structure.     

Behavioural inertia places a top marine predator at risk from environmental change in the Benguela upwelling system

In variable environments, organisms are bound to track environmental changes if they are to survive. Most marine mammals and seabirds are colonial, central-place foragers with long-term breeding-site fidelity. When confronted with environmental change, such species are potentially constrained in their ability to respond to these changes. For example, if environmental conditions deteriorate within their limited foraging range, long-lived species favour adult survival and abandon their current breeding effort, which ultimately influences population dynamics. Should poor conditions persist over several seasons, breeding-site fidelity may force animals to continue breeding in low-quality habitats instead of emigrating towards more profitable grounds. We assessed the behavioural response of a site-faithful central-place forager, the Cape gannet Morus capensis, endemic to the Benguela upwelling system, to a rapid shift in the distribution and abundance of its preferred prey, small pelagic shoaling fish. We studied the distribution and the abundance of prey species, and the diet, foraging distribution, foraging effort, energy requirements, and breeding success of gannets at Malgas Island (South Africa) over four consecutive breeding seasons. Facing a rapid depletion of preferred food within their foraging range, Cape gannets initially increased their foraging effort in search of their natural prey. However, as pelagic fish became progressively scarcer, breeding birds resorted to scavenging readily available discards from a nearby demersal fishery. Their chicks cannot survive on such a diet, and during our 4-year study, numbers of breeding birds at the colony decreased by 40% and breeding success of the remaining birds was very low. Such behavioural inflexibility caused numbers of Cape gannets breeding in Namibia to crash by 95% following over-fishing of pelagic fish in the 1970s. In the context of rapid environmental changes, breeding-site fidelity of long-lived species may increase the risk of local or even global extinction, rendering these species particularly vulnerable to global change.     

Evaluation of a fast response pressure solver for flow around an isolated cube

This work describes and evaluates a pressure solver that has been incorporated into a fast response three-dimensional building-resolving diagnostic wind modeling system. The solver computes the three-dimensional pressure field around buildings and on exterior walls in terms of a coefficient of pressure by solving a simplified pressure Poisson equation (that neglects turbulence stresses in the Navier-Stokes) for incompressible flow. The input to the solver is the three-dimensional mean wind field obtained from a fast response empirical-diagnostic urban wind model. The present study is an evaluation of the pressure solver using wind-tunnel data for flow normal to and at a 45° angle to an isolated cubical building. Results for the normal incident wind angle case indicate that the model satisfactorily reproduces the general spatial patterns and the magnitude of the pressure difference around much of the cube. Details of the flow field that are not satisfactorily predicted include the spatial distribution of pressure on the roof and the lower half of the front side of the building and the magnitude along the sidewalls where pressures are over predicted. The results for the 45° case show reasonable agreement between the model and experiments on the front and the back walls, but over predict pressures on the leading edge of the rooftop. Regions with poor pressure predictions appear to be a result of unsatisfactory mean wind modeling.     

Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes

In Portugal, due to the combination of climatological and ecological factors, large wildfires are a constant threat and due to their economic impact, a big policy issue. In order to organize efficient fire fighting capacity and resource management, correct quantification of the risk of large wildfires are needed. In this paper, we quantify the regional risk of large wildfire sizes, by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution to excesses over a suitably chosen high threshold. Spatio-temporal variations are introduced into the model through model parameters with suitably chosen link functions. The inference on these models are carried using Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.