In recent 2 years, the incidence of influenza showed a slight upward trend in Guangxi; therefore, some joint actions should be done to help preventing and controlling this disease. The factors analysis of affecting influenza and early prediction of influenza incidence may help policy-making so as to take effective measures to prevent and control influenza. In this study, we used the cross correlation function (CCF) to analyze the effect of climate indicators on influenza incidence, ARIMA and ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables) model methods to do predictive analysis of influenza incidence. The results of CCF analysis showed that climate indicators (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine duration) had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. People need to take good precautions in the days of severe air pollution and keep warm in cold weather to prevent influenza. We found that the ARIMAX (1,0,1)(0,0,1)12 with NO2 model has good predictive performance, which can be used to predict the influenza incidence in Guangxi, and the predicted incidence may be useful in developing early warning systems and providing important evidence for influenza control policy-making and public health intervention.
随着我国煤气化技术的快速发展,气化渣的产生和排放量逐年增加.煤气化细渣的大量堆存,给当地的环境保护造成了巨大的压力,已经成为限制煤化工产业基地可持续发展急需解决的重大问题.本文针对气化细渣中残碳反应活性低和转化难度大的问题,研究了机械活化法对气化渣残碳反应动力学的影响.采用Coats-Redfern法分析了机械活化对残碳反应活化能的作用规律.结果表明,机械活化8 h,残碳燃烧反应活性显著提高,650℃下的活化能由63.2 k J·mol-1降到28.4 k J·mol-1.不添加其他化学试剂,1000℃烧制高强度轻质陶粒,其堆积密度为0.867 g·cm-3,筒压强度为7.67 MPa.相关研究可以为我国气化细渣的资源化利用提供一定的数据和技术基础. 相似文献
• Air masses from Zhejiang Province is the major source of O3 in suburban Shanghai.• O3 formation was in VOC-sensitive regime in rural Shanghai.• O3 formation was most sensitive to propylene in rural Shanghai. A high level of ozone (O3) is frequently observed in the suburbs of Shanghai, the reason for this high level remains unclear. To obtain a detailed insight on the high level of O3 during summer in Shanghai, O3 and its precursors were measured at a suburban site in Shanghai from July 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016. Using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and concentration weighted trajectories (CWT), we found that Zhejiang province was the main potential source of O3 in suburban Shanghai. When the sampling site was controlled by south-western winds exceeding 2 m/s, the O3-rich air masses from upwind regions (such as Zhejiang province) could be transported to the suburban Shanghai. The propylene-equivalent concentration (PEC) and ozone formation potential (OFP) were further calculated for each VOC species, and the results suggested that propylene, (m+p)-xylene, and toluene played dominant roles in O3 formation. The Ozone Isopleth Plotting Research (OZIPR) model was used to reveal the impact of O3 precursors on O3 formation, and 4 base-cases were selected to adjust the model simulation. An average disparity of 18.20% was achieved between the simulated and observed O3 concentrations. The O3 isopleth diagram illustrated that O3 formation in July 2016 was in VOC-sensitive regime, although the VOC/NOx ratio was greater than 20. By introducing sensitivity (S), a sensitivity analysis was performed for O3 formation. We found that O3 formation was sensitive to propylene, (m+p)-xylene, o-xylene and toluene. The results provide theoretical support for O3 pollution treatment in Shanghai. 相似文献
Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Bio-drying has been proved to be a promising method for treatment of MSW (municipal solid waste) and sewage sludge due to its high energy... 相似文献