Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

● A novel framework integrating quantile regression with machine learning is proposed. ● It aims to identify factors driving observations to upper boundary of relationship. ● Increasing N:P and TN concentration help fulfill the effect of TP on CHL. ● Wetter and warmer decrease potential and increase eutrophication control difficulty. ● The framework advances applications of quantile regression and machine learning. The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N׃P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N׃P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.     

植物生长调节剂在土壤中的环境行为综述

为保障粮食生产安全,植物生长调节剂在全球农业生产中发挥的作用越来越重要,近10年全球销售额的平均增长率高达14％以上.一直以来,大多数植物生长调节剂一直都被认为是低毒或者微毒农药,而近期研究发现很多植物生长调节剂及其在环境中的降解中间产物对人体或生物安全都存在直接或潜在威胁.作为植物生长调节剂进入食物链的关键环节,植物...     

某核设施外围环境γ辐射剂量率分析

核设施外围环境γ辐射剂量率是环境保护工作中的重点监测对象。采用瞬时测量、热释光测量以及自动站连续测量3种方法分析了四川某核设施外围2011—2021年的环境γ辐射剂量率、周边居民辐射累积剂量以及这3种方法对监测结果的影响。结果表明,该核设施运行未对周围环境辐射水平造成显著影响;瞬时测量和自动站连续测量监测数据较为稳定,热释光测量易受周围环境影响造成数据波动。因此,在采用热释光测量法开展辐射环境监测时应加强对热释光剂量片布放、收取、运输、测量等环节的质量控制,并开展热释光剂量片宇宙射线响应值的测量。     

场地动力特性对衬砌隧道地震反应的影响

采用间接边界元法(IBEM),研究了平面SV波入射下场地动力特性对衬砌隧道地震反应的影响问题。充分利用半空间格林函数和全空间格林函数在分别构造含孔半无限空间域和闭合域内散射波场方面的优势,将含有衬砌隧道的层状半空间分解为含孔层状半无限空间域和一个环形衬砌闭合域。在半无限空间域孔洞边界和闭合域边界各单元上分别施加虚拟均布荷载,进而求得半空间和全空间域内的位移、应力格林函数,然后根据边界条件确定虚拟均布荷载密度,最后求得衬砌内表面动应力集中系数。验证了方法的正确性,并以基岩上单一土层和基岩上三层土为例,计算分析了层状弹性半空间中隧道衬砌内表面动应力集中系数。结果表明,随着基岩土层刚度比的增大,动应力集中系数峰值减小;随着土层厚度增大,动应力集中系数峰值总体上呈减小趋势;对于不同土层层序,动应力集中系数峰值明显不同。     

石煤开发利用重金属污染现状调查研究

报道了湖南、江西和浙江三省石煤开发利用过程中石煤、石煤渣、碳化砖、石煤烟尘灰、矿区周围土壤、水体和气溶胶部分重金属含量的调查方法和主要结果。调查结果表明：石煤的开采和利用对周围的土壤、水体和空气产生了一定污染,尤其是剧毒物质Cd和As的污染应引起高度重视。     

Effects of Zr substitution on soot combustion over cubic fluorite-structured nanoceria: Soot-ceria contact and interfacial oxygen evolution

Ceria is widely used as a catalyst for soot combustion, but effects of Zr substitution on the reaction mechanism is ambiguous. The present work elucidates effects of Zr substitution on soot combustion over cubic fluorite-structured nanoceria. The nanostructured CeO₂, Ce_0.92Zr_0.08O₂, and Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂ composed of 5–6 nm crystallites display T_m-CO2 (the temperature at maximum CO₂ yield) at 383, 355, and 375°C under 10 vol.% O₂/N₂, respectively. The size of agglomerate decreases from 165.5 to 51.9–57.3 nm, which is beneficial for the soot-ceria contact. Moreover, Zr increases the amount of surface oxygen vacancies, generating more active oxygen (O₂^? and O^?) for soot oxidation. Thus, the activities of Ce_0.92Zr_0.08O₂ and Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂ in soot combustion are better than that of CeO₂. Although oxygen vacancies promote the migration of lattice O^2?, the enriched surface Zr also inhibits the mobility of lattice O^2?. Therefore, the T_m-CO2 of Ce_0.84Zr_0.16O₂ is higher than that of Ce_0.92Zr_0.08O₂. Based on reaction kinetic study, soot in direct contact with ceria preferentially decomposes with low activation energy, while the oxidation of isolated soot occurs through diffusion with high activation energy. The obtained findings provide new understanding on the soot combustion over nanoceria.     

生态足迹核算方法及其应用研究进展

近年来,生态足迹作为可持续发展的有效度量工具之一,获得了广泛关注。在参阅相关文献的基础上,系统总结了生态足迹核算方法及其应用特点和趋势,结果表明,（1）在核算方法上尚存争议,目前主要的核算方法有3种：传统土地足迹法;能值足迹法;投入产出足迹法。（2）从静态足迹核算朝时间序列足迹分析和动态情景足迹预测演化。（3）尽管在各个尺度上都有应用,但生态足迹目前仅被看作是交流工具,用于决策分析的意义不大。拓展其在企业及其产品系统的应用,将是其应用价值体现的一个突破口。（4）生态足迹作为一系列指标的一部分时,发挥作用更大。（5）生态足迹应加强与现有核算体系（如GDP）的衔接,增加其被决策者接纳的可能性。     

天津中心城区夏季非甲烷有机化合物组成特征及其臭氧产生潜力分析

大气中非甲烷有机化合物(NMOCs)作为臭氧产生前体物之一,其浓度与组成特征研究对于研究地面臭氧形成的机制有重要的科学意义.选择夏季时段从2009年8月6日到13日在天津中心城区气象局铁塔站位对NMOCs进行采样分析,采样频次为每日5次,采样时间从7:30am到23:00pm间隔2～3h采样1次.天津城区NMOCs的含...     

Lead adsorption capacities of different components in natural surface coatings

Pb adsorption capacities of Fe oxide, Mn oxide and organic materials in natural surface coatings (biofilms and associated minerals) collected in three lakes, two ponds and a river in Jilin Province, China and Cayuga Lake in US were studied. A novel extraction technique was employed to remove one or more component(s) from the surface coatings. Pb adsorption to surface coatings before and after extraction was performed to determine the adsorptive properties of the extracted component(s). The statistical analysis of observed Pb adsorption was carried out using nonlinear least squares fitting (NLSF) to estimate the Pb adsorption capacity of each component of surface coatings. For each body of water, the estimated Pb adsorption capacity of Mn oxide( mol Pb/mol Mn) was significantly higher than that of Fe oxide( mol Pb/ mol Fe). The value of estimated adsorption capacities of organic materials with the unit mol Pb per kg COD was similar to or less than that of Fe oxides with the unit mol Pb per mol Fe. Comparison of components of surface coatings in different waters showed that the estimated Pb adsorption capacities of components in surface coatings developed in different natural waters were different,especially for Mn oxides.     

软土地区型钢水泥土搅拌墙墙土相互作用试验研究

软土地区采用型钢水泥土搅拌墙(SMW工法)支护形式优势非常明显,但目前对SMW工法墙-土相互作用机理的研究不够透彻,制约了其推广与应用。为深入探索墙-土相互作用机理,针对软土地区SMW工法建立了大比尺试验模型,对各工况墙顶位移、墙侧土压力以及型钢应变进行了测试。试验结果表明:SMW工法墙顶位移速率变化随基坑挖深增加呈U型趋势,而位移呈S型发展,位移时间效应显著,挡墙存在明显的最优嵌固比;实测墙背主动土压力呈抛物线型分布,基坑墙体位移值和位移速率均影响极限土压力发展,实测极限主动土压力大小间于Rankine主动土压力和静止土压力之间,而实测极限被动土压力远小于理论值;水泥土和型钢的组合挡墙承载能力和刚度明显优于型钢,且二者变形协同性较好,建议在SMW工法支护结构设计时考虑水泥土对组合挡墙的刚度贡献。