Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Matrix based fertilizers reduce nitrogen and phosphorus leaching in three soils

We compared the efficacy of matrix based fertilizers (MBFs) formulated to reduce NO3-, NH4+, and total phosphorus (TP) leaching, with Osmocoate 14-14-14, a conventional commercial slow release fertilizer (SRF) and an unamended control in three different soil textures in a greenhouse column study. The MBFs covered a range of inorganic N and P in compounds that are relatively loosely bound (MBF 1) to more moderately bound (MBF 2) and more tightly bound compounds (MBF 3) mixed with Al(SO4)3H2O and/or Fe2(SO4)3 and with high ionic exchange compounds starch, chitosan and lignin. When N and P are released, the chemicals containing these nutrients in the MBF bind N and P to a Al(SO4)3H2O and/or Fe2(SO4)3 starch-chitosan-lignin matrix. One milligram (8000 spores) of Glomus intradices was added to all formulations to enhance nutrient uptake. In all three soil textures the SRF leachate contained a higher amount of NH4+, NO3- and TP than leachate from all other fertilizers. In all three soils there were no consistent differences in the amount of NH4+, NO3- and TP in the MBF leachates compared to the control leachate. Plants growing in soils receiving SRF had greater shoot, root and total biomass than all MBFs regardless of Al(SO4)3H2O or Fe2(SO4)3 additions. Arbuscular mycorrhizal infection in plant roots did not consistently differ among plants growing in soil receiving SRF, MBFs and control treatments. Although the MBFs resulted in less plant growth in this experiment they may be applied to soils growing plants in areas that are at high risk for nutrient leaching to surface waters.     

Detecting Temporal Change in Watershed Nutrient Yields

Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.     

Assessing local planning capacity to promote environmentally sustainable residential development

Smart growth and sustainability planning have, in recent years, become central issues in planning discourse. Scholars have argued that planning capacity at the local government level is critical for smart growth planning, and that planners have a fundamental role to play in advancing local and regional sustainability. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which local planning capacity enables communities to promote more sustainable, smart growth residential development. Based on a 2013 survey of 38 county and 53 municipal governments in the state of Wisconsin, USA, this study finds that the majority of the sample communities have permitted residential developments characterized as transit-oriented, New Urbanist, mixed use, infill developments, or conservation subdivisions as alternatives to low-density, automobile-dependent conventional developments. The study also finds that jurisdictions with higher planning capacities are more likely to overcome significant barriers to more sustainable residential development.