Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge

While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran.     

Foraging in a tidally structured environment by Red Knots (Calidris canutus): ideal, but not free

Besides the "normal" challenge of obtaining adequate intake rates in a patchy and dangerous world, shorebirds foraging in intertidal habitats face additional environmental hurdles. The tide forces them to commute between a roosting site and feeding grounds, twice a day. Moreover, because intertidal food patches are not all available at the same time, shorebirds should follow itineraries along the best patches available at a given time. Finally, shorebirds need additional energy stores in order to survive unpredictable periods of bad weather, during which food patches are covered by extreme tides. In order to model such tide-specific decisions, we applied stochastic dynamic programming in a spatially explicit context. Two assumptions were varied, leading to four models. First, birds had either perfect (ideal) or no (non-ideal) information about the intake rate at each site. Second, traveling between sites was either for free or incurred time and energy costs (non-free). Predictions were generated for three aspects of foraging: area use, foraging routines, and energy stores. In general, non-ideal foragers should feed most intensely and should maintain low energy stores. If traveling for such birds is free, they should feed at a random site; otherwise, they should feed close to their roost. Ideal foragers should concentrate their feeding around low tide (especially when free) and should maintain larger energy stores (especially when non-free). If traveling for such birds is free, they should feed at the site offering the highest intake rate; otherwise, they should trade off travel costs and intake rate. Models were parameterized for Red Knots (Calidris canutus) living in the Dutch Wadden Sea in late summer, an area for which detailed, spatially explicit data on prey densities and tidal heights are available. Observations of radio-marked knots (area use) and unmarked knots (foraging routines, energy stores) showed the closest match with the ideal/non-free model. We conclude that knots make state-dependent decisions by trading off starvation against foraging-associated risks, including predation. Presumably, knots share public information about resource quality that enables them to behave in a more or less ideal manner. We suggest that our modeling approach may be applicable in other systems where resources fluctuate in space and time.     

Evaluating the impacts of some environmentally relevant factors on the availability of bisphenol A with negligible-depletion SPME

The effect of some environmentally relevant factors including salinity, pH, and humic acids on the availability of bisphenol A (BPA) was evaluated by using the negligible-depletion solid-phase microextraction (nd-SPME) biomimetic method. With the variation of salinity (0–500 mM NaCl) and pH (5.0–8.5) of aqueous solutions, the partition coefficients of BPA between the nd-SPME fiber and the aqueous solution varied in the range of log D = 3.55–3.86, which indicates that the salinity and pH can influence the availability of BPA. By using Acros humic acid as model dissolved organic matter (DOM), it was also demonstrated that the environmental factors such as salinity and pH could affect the partitioning of BPA between DOM and aqueous solutions. The determined partition coefficients of BPA between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and aqueous solutions were in the range of log D_DOC = 4.03–5.60 for Acros humic acid solutions with 1–50 mg l⁻¹ DOC. The influence of salinity and pH on log D_DOC was more significant at low concentration (0–5 mg l⁻¹) of DOC.     

Evaluation of fluoranthene phytotoxicity in pea plants by Hill reaction and chlorophyll fluorescence

The effect of both increased concentrations (0.01 and 1 mg l(-1)) of fluoranthene (FLT) and the duration of exposure (18 and 25 days) on the growth and photosynthetic processes in pea plants (Pisum sativum L., cv. Garde) was investigated. FLT concentration in roots and shoot of pea plants was also determined. The obtained results demonstrated that the higher concentration of FLT (1 mg l(-1)) significantly inhibited the growth of the pea plants after 25 days of the application, also affected the content of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll a, b and carotenoids), and the primary photochemical processes of photosynthesis. In chlorophyll fluorescence parameters, the significant increase of F(0) values and the decrease of F(V)/F(M) and Phi(II) values was recorded. The Hill reaction of isolated chloroplasts of pea plants was significantly inhibited after 25 days by presence of FLT (0.01 and 1 mg l(-1)) in nutrient solution, while after 18 days no significant response of Hill reaction activity was recorded. The fluoranthene content in roots and shoot of pea plants increased with increasing FLT concentration in the environment and the substantial accumulation of FLT was observed in the roots.     

Use of safety barriers in operational safety decision making

Operational personnel in complex hazardous industries are regularly called upon to make decisions that balance the production and safety objectives of their organisation. Regulations and industry standards focus on defining and complying with operating limits of various kinds as the primary method of achieving the right balance. Such limits remove the need in many cases for in-the-moment judgements about safety and production priorities.Focussing solely on the compliance with a pre-defined envelope underestimates the direct contribution to safety from operational managers based on their professional judgement. Research in a chemical plant, a nuclear power station and an air navigation service provider has identified a “line in the sand” approach taken by experienced operating personnel when abnormal situations arise. In developing these situation-specific self-imposed limits, operational managers focus on the status of safety barriers, rather than considering risk from first principles. This approach could form the basis of a new procedure, which lays out the process to be followed in determining how best to proceed (similar to job safety analysis or permit to work). This would acknowledge that such decisions are necessary, assist operational personnel in making better choices and open such decisions to appropriate audit and scrutiny.     

On the analysis of hydrocarbon leaks in the Norwegian offshore industry

There have been several major offshore accidents in different offshore regions since 2005. In Norway there have been several very serious near-misses during the last ten years, several of which involving serious hydrocarbon leaks with catastrophic fire and explosion potential. All these severe occurrences demonstrate the importance of learning from major accident precursors in order to appraise the risk potential involved in critical offshore operations. This paper is based on analysis of about 175 hydrocarbon leaks in the period 2001–2010. Regulatory requirements in Norway are aimed at preventing as far as possible such occurrences during night time, but the analysis shows that this has been far from successful. The industry has for many years claimed that the maintenance personnel are the main group of employees involved in causing these leaks. This study has shown that leaks during the execution of maintenance and modification are less than half of the leaks, and that failures during the preparation for carrying out maintenance tasks are more frequent. Such preparations have often been conducted during night shift. The analysis gives a strong incentive to change this practice.     

Adaptation of the Daphnia sp. acute toxicity test: miniaturization and prolongation for the testing of nanomaterials

Manufacturing of nanomaterials (NMs) is often complex and expensive, and their environmental risks are poorly understood or even unknown. An economization of testing NMs is therefore desirable, which can be achieved by miniaturizing test systems. However, the downsizing of test vessels and volumes can enlarge the surface/volume ratio (SVR) which in turn can affect the bioavailable concentration of adsorbing substances like NMs. The present study focused on the miniaturization of the acute toxicity test with Daphnia magna. The adaptations were verified with three reference substances, the non-adsorbing potassium dichromate (K₂Cr₂O₇) and as potentially highly-adsorbing substances silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) and silver nitrate (AgNO₃). The miniaturized test was conducted in 24-well microtiter plates (MT) and simultaneously compared to the OECD standard test (ST). Furthermore, the test duration was prolonged from 48 to 96 h since NMs tend to show effects only after extended exposure. The toxicity of K₂Cr₂O₇ and AgNPs continued to increase within the prolonged test span. The test comparisons with K₂Cr₂O₇ did not reveal any significant differences between ST and MT. AgNO₃ toxicity was significantly decreased in MT compared to ST due to the enlarged SVR. The toxicity of AgNPs in MT after 24 h was equal to ST. Contrary to our expectations an exposure longer than 24 h resulted in an increase of AgNP toxicity in MT, possibly due to enhanced dissolution of silver. Microtiter plates are appropriate alternative test vessels for the Daphnia sp. acute toxicity test; thus, its miniaturization is feasible. The enlarged SVR has to be taken into account since it can affect the toxicity of potentially adsorbing substances. Furthermore, the standard test duration of 48 h might underestimate the toxicity of many substances, especially of NMs.     

Leachate treatment before injection into a bioreactor landfill: Clogging potential reduction and benefits of using methanogenesis

In this study, an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor (ASBR) was operated with leachate from Brady Road Municipal Landfill in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Leachate was collected twice from the same cell at the landfill, during the first and 70th day of the study, and then fed into the ASBR. The ASBR was seeded at the start-up with biosolids from the anaerobic digester from Winnipeg’s North End Water Pollution Control Center (NEWPCC). Due to the higher COD and VFA removal rates measured with the second batch of leachate, an increase of approximately 0.3 pH units was observed during each cycle (from pH 7.2 to 7.5). In addition, CO₂ was produced between cycles at constant temperature where a fraction of the CO₂ became dissolved, shifting the CO₂/bicarbonate/carbonate equilibrium. Concurrent with the increase in pH and carbonate, an accumulation of fixed suspend solids (FSS) was observed within the ASBR, indicating a buildup of inorganic material over time. From it, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were measured within the reactor on day 140, indicating that most of the dissolved Ca²⁺ was removed within cycles. There is precedence from past researches of clogging in leachate-collection systems (Rowe et al., 2004) that changes in pH and carbonate content combined with high concentrations of metals such as Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ result in carbonate mineral precipitants. A parallel study investigated this observation, indicating that leachate with high concentration of Ca²⁺ under CO₂ saturation conditions can precipitate out CaCO₃ at the pH values obtained between digestion cycles. These studies presented show that methanogenesis of leachate impacts the removal of organic (COD, VFA) as well as inorganic (FSS, Ca²⁺) clog constituents from the leachate, that otherwise will accumulate inside of the recirculation pipe in bioreactor landfills. In addition, a robust methanogenesis of leachate was achieved, averaging rates of 0.35 L CH₄ produced/g COD removed which is similar to the theoretical removal of 0.4 L CH₄/g COD. Therefore, using methanogenesis of leachate prior to recirculation in bioreactor landfills will help to (1) control clog formation within leachate pipes and (2) produce an important additional source of energy on-site.