A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.     

Metal accumulation in soil arthropods in relation to micro-nutrients

Nine species of soil arthropod collected at two sites of different pollution levels were compared for concentrations of seven different elements (Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn) and correlations between the different elements were calculated. Significant effects of site on element concentrations of the animals were found for cadmium, iron, manganese and zinc, whereas calcium, copper and lead concentrations showed no significant difference between the sites. Significant differences between the species were found for all metal. The pattern of accumulation was comparable for some of the metals. Correlations were found between calcium, iron, manganese and lead concentrations and between zinc and cadmium concentrations of the species. No significant correlations were found for copper. The study showed that species can not be easily categorised as accumulators or non-accumulators; the pattern depends on the metal.     

Multi-generation toxicity of zinc, cadmium, copper and lead to the potworm Enchytraeus albidus

In standard chronic terrestrial toxicity tests with invertebrates, adult organisms are exposed to the contaminants and the number of offspring is quantified. These procedures do not allow the assessment of possible effects on all life stages of the organism, which may lead to an underestimation of the toxicity of the test substance. To evaluate the importance of this issue, the potworm Enchytraeus albidus was exposed to zinc, cadmium, copper and lead for two subsequent generations. Juvenile production was assessed for both generations. Considering the variability of metal toxicity data reported in the literature, it is concluded that the two generation assay did not markedly increase the sensitivity of the standard E. albidus test for the tested metals. Therefore, toxicity data obtained with the proposed test guideline with E. albidus are protective for all life stages.     

Modelling concentrations of airborne primary and secondary PM10 and PM2.5 with the BelEUROS-model in Belgium

The Eulerian Chemistry-Transport Model BelEUROS was used to calculate the concentrations of airborne PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 over Europe. Both primary as well as secondary particulate matter in the respirable size-range was taken into account. Especially PM_2.5 aerosols are often formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursor compounds. Comprehensive computer codes for the calculation of gas phase chemical reactions and thermodynamic equilibria between compounds in the gas-phase and the particulate phase had been implemented into the BelEUROS-model. Calculated concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 are compared to observations, including both the spatial and daily, temporal distribution of particulate matter in Belgium for certain monitoring locations and periods. The concentrations of the secondary compounds ammonium, nitrate and sulfate have also been compared to observed values. BelEUROS was found to reproduce the observed concentrations rather well. The model was applied to assess the contribution of emissions derived from the sector agriculture in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium, to PM₁₀- and PM_2.5-concentrations. The results demonstrate the importance of ammonia emissions in the formation of secondary particulate matter. Hence, future European emission abatement policy should consider more the role of ammonia in the formation of secondary particles.     

Vitellogenin content in European eel (Anguilla anguilla) in Flanders, Belgium

As part of a large-scale monitoring program of bioaccumulating contaminants in the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) in Flanders (Belgium), we investigated potential effects of xenoestrogens in these fish. The present paper describes the results of the plasma vitellogenin (VTG) content, measured in 142 eels sampled at 20 different locations, in relation to the internal pollution levels. To validate the blood VTG assays, a small number of eels (n=8) was exposed to 10 microg ethinylestradiol/l (EE2) for 9 days. In this experiment, VTG was detected as a protein with a molecular weight of 214 kDa and confirmed by Western blotting. Compared with the solvent controls, significantly higher concentrations of VTG were measured in EE2 exposed eel. However, the VTG content was relatively low compared with other fish species exposed to high concentrations of estrogens. The plasma VTG content of eels from the field study was very low, despite a very high internal load of endocrine disrupters. These results, together with previously published studies, suggest that immature yellow European eel might not be the best sentinel species to study the effects of estrogenic compounds on VTG levels of wild fish populations.     

A New Concept for Air Quality Modelling in Street Canyons

We present an analytical model that predicts concentrations in street canyons assuming a uniform distribution within a street, dimensioned by its length and width and the height of the surrounding built-up area. Using the Prandtl-Taylor hypothesis, the concentration in the street is determined from a mass flux balance between a horizontal advective flux, a turbulent diffusive vertical flux and a continuous road transport emission source. The model does not necessarily assume re-circulation of the flow in the street canyon, but rather considers the turbulent intermittency in the shear layer shed from the upwind roof level as the driving force. This concept is in agreement with recent measurements and observations. The model has been applied to compute benzene concentrations based on hourly emissions obtained for 1963 streets and road segments in the City of Antwerp, Belgium. The results are compared with diffusive sampler measurements carried out at 101 locations in several streets of Antwerp, during 4 periods of 5 days in 1998. When averaged over periods of 5 days, the calculated benzene concentrations show a very good agreement with the results obtained by the diffusive sampler measurements.     

Catchment–coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment–coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form.     

Evaluating Spatial Design Techniques for Solving Land-use Allocation Problems

This study examines the use of spatial optimization techniques for multi-site land-use allocation problems (MLUA). 'Multi-site' refers to the problem of allocating more than one land-use type in an area, which are difficult problems as they involve multiple stakeholders with conflicting goals and objectives. Spatial optimization methods consist of (1) an optimization model and (2) an algorithm to solve the model. This study demonstrates a goal-programming model to solve the MLUA problem. The model is solved using both simulated annealing and genetic algorithms. Special attention has been given to introduce a spatial compactness objective in the model. It is shown that the compactness objectives in the optimization model generate compact patches of the same land use for using both the simulated annealing procedure and the genetic algorithm. In addition, it appears that using the proper settings of the compactness objectives, connectivity between patches of land use is promoted. The method is tested for a fictive study and then demonstrated for a real case study, both measuring 20 × 20 cells. The genetic algorithm generally performs better than simulated annealing in terms of solution time and achieving compactness.