Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

Combined effects of elevated CO2 and natural climatic variation on leaf spot diseases of redbud and sweetgum trees

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are predicted to double within the next century and alter climate regimes, yet the extent that these changes will affect plant diseases remains unclear. In this study conducted over five years, we assessed how elevated CO₂ and interannual climatic variability affect Cercospora leaf spot diseases of two deciduous trees. Climatic data varied considerably between the five years and altered disease expression. Disease incidence and severity for both species were greater in years with above average rainfall. In years with above average temperatures, disease incidence for Liquidambar styraciflua was decreased significantly. When significant changes did occur, disease incidence and severity always increased under elevated CO₂. Chlorophyll fluorescence imaging of leaves revealed that any visible increase in disease severity induced by elevated CO₂ was mitigated by higher photosynthetic efficiency in the remaining undamaged leaf tissue and in a halo surrounding lesions.     

Microbial mineralization of organic nitrogen forms in poultry litters

Ammonia volatilization from the mineralization of uric acid and urea has a major impact on the poultry industry and the environment. Dry acids are commonly used to reduce ammonia emissions from poultry houses; however, little is known about how acidification affects the litter biologically. The goal of this laboratory incubation was to compare the microbiological and physiochemical effects of dry acid amendments (Al+Clear, Poultry Litter Treatment, Poultry Guard) on poultry litter to an untreated control litter and to specifically correlate uric acid and urea contents of these litters to the microbes responsible for their mineralization. Although all three acidifiers eventually produced similar effects within the litter, there was at least a 2-wk delay in the microbiological responses using Poultry Litter Treatment. Acidification of the poultry litter resulted in >3 log increases in total fungal concentrations, with both uricolytic (uric acid degrading) and ureolytic (urea degrading) fungi increasing by >2 logs within the first 2 to 4 wk of the incubation. Conversely, total, uricolytic, and ureolytic bacterial populations all significantly declined during this same time period. While uric acid and urea mineralization occurred within the first 2 wk in the untreated control litter, acidification resulted in delayed mineralization events for both uric acid and urea (2 and 4 wk delay, respectively) once fungal cell concentrations exceeded a threshold level. Therefore, fungi, and especially uricolytic fungi, appear to have a vital role in the mineralization of organic N in low-pH, high-N environments, and the activity of these fungi should be considered in best management practices to reduce ammonia volatilization from acidified poultry litter.     

Comparative Toxicity of Prymnesium parvum in Inland Waters1

Brooks, Bryan W., Susan V. James, Theodore W. Valenti, Jr., Fabiola Urena-Boeck, Carlos Serrano, Jason P. Berninger, Leslie Schwierzke, Laura D. Mydlarz, James P. Grover, and Daniel L. Roelke, 2010. Comparative Toxicity of Prymnesium parvum in Inland Waters. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(1):45-62. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00390.x Abstract: Numerous studies have examined the impacts of Prymnesium parvum to aquatic life, but the majority of information available is from experiments or field studies performed at salinities of marine and coastal ecosystems. Ambient toxicity of P. parvum has been characterized with in vitro and in vivo models because reliable quantitation of P. parvum toxins in environmental matrices is often precluded by a lack of available analytical standards. Hemolytic activity and fish mortality assays have been used most frequently to characterize toxic conditions; however, relatively few in vivo studies employed standardized methods. Because the relative sensitivities of different taxa to P. parvum toxins in inland waters were undefined, we assessed the comparative toxicity of P. parvum filtrate from a laboratory study (20°C, 12:12 light:dark cycle, f/8 media, 2.4 psu) to several common standardized in vitro and in vivo models. After exposure to cell-free filtrate hemolytic activity (1 h EC₅₀ = 13,712 cells/ml) and juvenile fish (Pimephales promelas) survival (48 h LC₅₀ = 21,754 cells/ml) were the most sensitive assay responses examined, followed by rotifer (Brachionus calyciflorus) population growth rate [48 h no observable adverse effect levels (NOAEL) = 19,072 cells/ml] and cladoceran (Daphnia magna) reproduction (10-day NOAEL = 47,680 cells/ml). Green algae (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) growth (96 h) was not adversely affected but was instead significantly stimulated by P. parvum toxins. We further propose an initial species sensitivity distribution approach for P. parvum, which may be used to support future environmental management decisions. Our findings from these laboratory studies indicate that although fish kills are increasingly associated with P. parvum blooms occurring in inland waters, further study is required to define the influences of toxin sensitivities of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish communities on P. parvum bloom initiation and termination.     

Controlling the fate of roxarsone and inorganic arsenic in poultry litter

A growing body of literature reports 3-nitro-4-hydroxyphenylarsonic acid (roxarsone) degradation in poultry litter (PL) to the more toxic inorganic arsenic (As). Aluminum-based drinking-water treatment residuals (WTR) present a low-cost amendment technology to reduce As availability in PL, similar to the use of alum to reduce phosphorus availability. Batch experiments investigated the effectiveness of WTR in removing roxarsone and inorganic As species from PL aqueous suspensions. Incubation experiments with WTR-amended PL evaluated the effects of WTR application rates (2.5-15% by weight) and incubation time (up to 32 d) at two incubation temperatures (23 and 35 degrees C) on As availability in PL. Batch PL aqueous experiments showed the high affinity of As(V), As(III), dimethylarsinic acid (DMA), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and roxarsone for the WTR. The 10% WTR amendment rate decreased As availability in PL by half of that of the unamended (no WTR) PL-incubated samples. The reduction in dissolved As concentrations during incubation of WTR-amended PL samples was kinetically limited, being complete within 13 d. Parallel reductions in roxarsone, As(V), and DMA concentrations were observed with liquid chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, whereas As(III) and MMA concentrations were always <5% of dissolved As. Incubation temperature did not significantly (p > 0.05) influence dissolved As concentrations in the WTR-amended PL. Potential formation of a copper-containing roxarsone metabolite was considered in PL aqueous suspensions with the aid of electrospray mass spectrometry. Further experiments in the field are necessary to ensure that sorbed As is stable in WTR-amended PL.     

A two-agent dynamic model with an invasive weed diffusion externality: an application to Yellow Starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L.) in New Mexico

This paper presents a bioeconomic model for two agents, a cattle rancher and a non-rancher, with interdependencies between their individual effort of invasive weed management and profitability. Dynamic simulations allow us to find numerically the optimal effort of weed control over a 5-year time horizon under a variety of beginning infestation levels. In a base-case scenario without governmental cost-share of control costs, we find that efforts to control the weed are not profitable. The base-case scenarios also indicate that grazing contributes to giving the invasive weed a competitive edge. A second series of simulations include incentive payments for weed control which are set at the minimum level required to have a net positive impact on the rancher's profitability. From these simulations, we find that the level of infestation impacts the size of the incentive necessary to get the agent to control the weeds and that the incentive payments impact the level of effort of the rancher. In addition, results reveal that the higher incentive payments for lower levels of weed infestations reduce the total cumulative incentive payments over time. Efficient policies directed towards management of invasive weeds may need to be adjusted for each individual case.     

Degradation of aqueous piperazine in carbon dioxide capture

Concentrated, aqueous piperazine (PZ) is a novel solvent for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture by absorption/stripping. One of the major advantages of PZ is its resistance to thermal degradation and oxidation.At 135 and 150 °C, 8 m PZ is up to two orders of magnitude more resistant to thermal degradation than 7 m monoethanolamine (MEA). After 18 weeks at 150 °C, only 6.3% of the initial PZ was degraded, yielding an apparent first order rate constant for amine loss of 6.1 × 10^?9 s^?1. PZ was the most resistant amine tested, with the other screened amines shown in order of decreasing resistance: 7 m 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol, 7 m Diglycolamine^®, 7 m N-(2-hydroxyethyl)piperazine, 7 m MEA, 8 m ethylenediamine, and 7 m diethylenetriamine. Thermal resistance allows the use of higher temperatures and pressures in the stripper, potentially leading to overall energy savings.Concentrated PZ solutions demonstrate resistance to oxidation compared to 7 m MEA solutions. Experiments investigating metal-catalyzed oxidation found that PZ solutions were 3–5 times more resistant to oxidation than MEA. Catalysts tested were 1.0 mM iron (II), 4.0–5.0 mM copper (II), and a combination of stainless steel metals (iron (II), nickel (II), and chromium (III)). Inhibitor A reduced PZ degradation catalyzed by iron (II) and copper (II).     

Effects of urbanization on the population structure of freshwater turtles across the United States

Landscape‐scale alterations that accompany urbanization may negatively affect the population structure of wildlife species such as freshwater turtles. Changes to nesting sites and higher mortality rates due to vehicular collisions and increased predator populations may particularly affect immature turtles and mature female turtles. We hypothesized that the proportions of adult female and immature turtles in a population will negatively correlate with landscape urbanization. As a collaborative effort of the Ecological Research as Education Network (EREN), we sampled freshwater turtle populations in 11 states across the central and eastern United States. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant positive relationship between proportions of mature female painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) and urbanization. We did not detect a relationship between urbanization and proportions of immature turtles. Urbanization may alter the thermal environment of nesting sites such that more females are produced as urbanization increases. Our approach of creating a collaborative network of scientists and students at undergraduate institutions proved valuable in terms of testing our hypothesis over a large spatial scale while also allowing students to gain hands‐on experience in conservation science.     

Trends in bicycle-related injuries,hospital admissions,and deaths in the USA 1997–2013

Objective: Cycling is associated with numerous health benefits but also the risk of traumatic injury. Recent data demonstrate an increase in overall cycling injuries as well as hospital admissions from 1997 to 2013 in the United States. We seek to better understand the causes of the increase in cycling injuries and hospital admissions.

Methods: Data regarding cycling-related injuries and hospital admissions were obtained from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). Participation data were derived from the National Sporting Goods Association Sports Participation Survey, and fatality data were collected from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Population estimates were obtained using a complex survey design. Linear regression was used to evaluate univariate relationships between cycling injuries, hospital admissions, deaths, and participation. To evaluate factors associated with hospital admission, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model that included year, age, gender, body part injured, and injury type (i.e., contusion, fracture, or laceration).

Results: The number of individuals who cycle did not change significantly over time, but there was a substantial increase in cycling-related injuries, leading to an increase in per participant injuries from 701/100,000 in 1997 to 1,164/100,000 in 2013. When the injuries were evaluated by age group, younger cyclists have an increased risk for injury, whereas the rise in injuries among older cyclists stemmed from an increase in ridership rather than a unique susceptibility to injury. Trends in hospital admissions and fatalities appeared to be driven by increases in the older age groups. In the multivariable model evaluating factors related to hospital admission, the odds of hospital admission increased for each decade after age 25, as well as male gender and body part injured.

Conclusion: On a per participant basis, the rate of cycling-related injuries and hospital admissions increased between 1997 and 2013. This trend likely reflects a combination of shifting demographics among cyclists with an increase in older cyclists who are at increased risk of severe injury.     

Effect of automated versus manual emergency braking on rear seat adult and pediatric occupant precrash motion

Abstract

Objective: Emergency braking can potentially generate precrash occupant motion that may influence the effectiveness of restraints in the subsequent crash, particularly for rear-seated occupants who may be less aware of the impending crash. With the advent of automated emergency braking (AEB), the mechanism by which braking is achieved is changing, potentially altering precrash occupant motion. Further, due to anatomical and biomechanical differences across ages, kinematic differences between AEB and manual emergency braking (MEB) may vary between child and adult occupants. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify differences in rear-seated adult and pediatric kinematics and muscle activity during AEB and MEB scenarios.

Methods: Vehicle maneuvers were performed in a recent model year sedan traveling at 50?km/h. MEB (acceleration ～1?g) was achieved by the driver pressing the brake pedal with maximum effort. AEB (acceleration ～0.8?g) was triggered by the vehicle system. Inertial and Global Positioning System data were collected. Seventeen male participants aged 10–33 were restrained in the rear right passenger seat and experienced each maneuver twice. The subjects’ kinematics were recorded with an 8-camera 3D motion capture system. Electromyography (EMG) recorded muscle activity. Head and trunk displacements, raw and normalized by seated height, and peak head and trunk velocity were compared across age and between maneuvers. Mean EMG was calculated to interpret kinematic findings.

Results: Head and trunk displacement and peak velocity were greater in MEB than in AEB in both raw and normalized data (P?≤?.01). No effect of age was observed (P?≥?.21). Peak head and trunk velocities were greater in repetition 1 than in repetition 2 (P?≤?.006) in MEB but not in AEB. Sternocleidomastoid (SCM) mean EMG was greater in MEB compared to AEB, and muscle activity increased in repetition 2 in MEB.

Conclusions: Across all ages, head and trunk excursions were greater in MEB than AEB, despite increased muscle activity in MEB. This observation may suggest an ineffective attempt to brace the head or a startle reflex. The increased excursion in MEB compared to AEB may be attributed to differences in the acceleration pulses between the 2 scenarios. These results suggest that AEB systems can use specific deceleration profiles that have potential to reduce occupant motion across diverse age groups compared to sudden maximum emergency braking applied manually.