Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to “demographic and social aspects”, “wealth and economic standing”, “past coping and adaptive behaviour”, “climate knowledge and information” and “spatial aspect” of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050–2075 (LR χ ²?=?133.65, pseudo-R ²?=?0.53, p?<?0.001) and 2080–2100 (LR χ ²?=?282.61, pseudo-R ²?=?0.85, p?<?0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.     

OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR SYSTEM OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: The goal programming approach for multipurpose reservoir operation has been proposed and applied to the Bhadra reservoir system, having irrigation and hydropower production as dual purposes, in India. The objective of the model is to satisfy sequentially a series of operating criteria. Two goal programming models, one with the objective function as minimizing the deviations from storage targets and the other with the objective function as minimizing the deviations from release targets, have been formulated and applied to the reservoir system under study. The results proved that the model with release targets is preferred over the model with storage targets for determining operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system.     

Nonparametric Ranked-set Sampling Confidence Intervals for Quantiles of a Finite Population

Ranked-set sampling from a finite population is considered in this paper. Three sampling protocols are described, and procedures for constructing nonparametric confidence intervals for a population quantile are developed. Algorithms for computing coverage probabilities for these confidence intervals are presented, and the use of interpolated confidence intervals is recommended as a means to approximately achieve coverage probabilities that cannot be achieved exactly. A simulation study based on finite populations of sizes 20, 30, 40, and 50 shows that the three sampling protocols follow a strict ordering in terms of the average lengths of the confidence intervals they produce. This study also shows that all three ranked-set sampling protocols tend to produce confidence intervals shorter than those produced by simple random sampling, with the difference being substantial for two of the protocols. The interpolated confidence intervals are shown to achieve coverage probabilities quite close to their nominal levels. Rankings done according to a highly correlated concomitant variable are shown to reduce the level of the confidence intervals only minimally. An example to illustrate the construction of confidence intervals according to this methodology is provided.     

Dissolution studies on TiO2 with organics

In this work the effect of organic reducing reagents, namely, ascorbic acid, oxalic acid and L-cysteine on dissolution of commercial TiO(2) has been investigated. Kinetic studies showed that a maximum of about 45% of TiO(2) was dissolved by ascorbic acid in 4h when oxide:acid molar ratio was kept at 1:2. The dissolution of TiO(2) increased with increase in ascorbic acid and oxalic acid concentration up to 0.15M in 4h (corresponding to molar ratio of oxide to acid of 1:3) and further addition did not affect the dissolution. Nearly 45% TiO(2) dissolution was obtained with ascorbic acid alone while oxalic acid yielded 40% dissolution. When oxalic acid was added along with ascorbic acid in equi-molar concentrations, dissolution of TiO(2) was enhanced to 60% in 2.5h but when cysteine was added to ascorbic acid the dissolution was about 50% in just 1h.     

Policies,Measures and the Monitoring Needs of Forest Sector Carbon Mitigation

Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C substitution. The paper provides background information on the technical potential for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose.     

Developing long-term strategies to reduce energy use and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions—analysis of three mitigation scenarios for iron and steel production in China

We perform a scenario analysis of three strategies for long-term energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions in iron and steel production in China, using a linear optimization modeling framework industry sector energy efficiency modeling (ISEEM). The modeling includes annual projections for one base scenario representing business-as-usual (BAU) and three additional scenarios representing different strategies to reduce annual energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2050. Specifically, the three scenarios for cost-optimization modeling include changing the production share (PS), predefining emission reduction (ER) target, and stipulating carbon emission pricing (CP), respectively. While the three strategies are projected to result in similar annual energy savings by approximately 15 % compared to that of the BAU scenario in year 2050, the carbon emission pricing strategy brings about the highest annual energy savings in the medium term (e.g., 2025). In addition, adopting carbon emission pricing strategy will result in the highest emission reduction from BAU with much higher costs, i.e., by 20 % in 2025 and 41 % in 2050, while adopting either PS or ER strategies will result in a moderate level of emission reduction from BAU, i.e., by approximately 4 % in 2025 and 14 % in 2050. The analysis of China’s national strategies to reduce energy use and emissions provides important implications for global mitigation strategies.     

Operational Indicators for Measuring Agricultural Sustainability in Developing Countries

This paper reviews relevant literature on the sustainability indicators theoretically proposed and practically applied by scholars over the past 15 years. Although progress is being made in the development and critical analysis of sustainability indicators, in many cases existing or proposed indicators are not the most sensitive or useful measures in developing countries. Indicator selection needs to meet the following criteria: relative availability of data representing the indicators, sensitivity to stresses on the system, existence of threshold values and guidelines, predictivity, integratability and known response to disturbances, anthropogenic stresses, and changes over time. Based on these criteria, this paper proposes a set of operational indicators for measuring agricultural sustainability in developing countries. These indicators include ecological indicators involving amounts of fertilizers and pesticides used, irrigation water used, soil nutrient content, depth to the groundwater table, water use efficiency, quality of groundwater for irrigation, and nitrate content of both groundwater and crops. Economic indicators include crop productivity, net farm income, benefit–cost ratio of production, and per capita food grain production. Social indicators encompass food self-sufficiency, equality in food and income distribution among farmers, access to resources and support services, and farmers knowledge and awareness of resource conservation. This article suggests that the selection of indicators representing each aspect of sustainability should be prioritized according to spatial and temporal characteristics under consideration.     

Planning and development strategy for effective management of community forestry: lessons from the Thai experience

The forestry laws and regulations imposed by the Thai government to solve chronic deforestation have created conflicts between rural communities and government agencies over the use and control of forest resources. Therefore, the research carried out for this article focused on the study of community-based forest management practices in the northern region of Thailand to determine whether community-based forest management can lead to sustainable use and reverse the deteriorating situation and related problem of deforestation.
This study was conducted in a district of Phayao Province in northern Thailand, where a natural watershed has recently been managed jointly among ethnically diverse local communities living in upstream and downstream areas under the promulgation of the National Park Act. Research was based on both secondary and primary sources of data and information. An intensive field survey was also conducted through a standard questionnaire, supplemented by group discussions and informal interviews to understand the historical development of settlements in the study area.
The joint management of the community forest by the community, government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) was recommended under the decentralised and participatory planning framework in the study area and also in other areas with similar environmental conditions. Equally important in promoting community forest management were the facilitating role of forest officials, the provision of support services, monitoring and enforcement of control mechanisms, and capacity building of local organisations.     

Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh

This paper explores peoples' indigenous survival strategies and assesses variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood‐prone villages in Bangladesh. It reveals that people continuously battle against flood vulnerability in accordance with their level of exposure and abilities, with varied strategies employed at different geophysical locations. The paper reports that people in an area with low flooding and with better socioeconomic circumstances are more likely to cope with impacts compared to people in areas with high and sudden flooding. Similarly, households' ability to cope varies depending on people's socioeconomic conditions, such as education, income and occupation. Although floods in Bangladesh generate socioeconomic misery and cause damage to the environment, health and infrastructure, people's indigenous coping strategies have helped them to reduce significantly their vulnerability. Such flood‐mitigating strategies should be well recognised and emphasised further via proper dissemination of information through an early‐warning system and subsequently external assistance.