The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): Overview and Statistical Considerations

Abstract

Average concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in Steubenville, OH, have decreased by more than 10 μg/m³ since the landmark Harvard Six Cities Study¹ associated the city’s elevated PM_2.5 concentrations with adverse health effects in the 1980s. Given the promulgation of a new National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM_2.5 in 1997, a current assessment of PM_2.5 in the Steubenville region is warranted. The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP) was conducted from 2000 through 2002 to provide such an assessment. The program included both an outdoor ambient air monitoring component and an indoor and personal air sampling component. This paper, which is the first in a series of four that will present results from the outdoor portion of SCAMP, provides an overview of the outdoor ambient air monitoring program and addresses statistical issues, most notably autocorrelation, that have been overlooked by many PM_2.5 data analyses. The average PM_2.5 concentration measured in Steubenville during SCAMP (18.4 μg/m³) was 3.4g/m³ above the annual PM_2.5 NAAQS. On average, sulfate and organic material accounted for ～31% and 25%, respectively, of the total PM_2.5 mass. Local sources contributed an estimated 4.6 μg/m³ to Steubenville’s mean PM_2.5 concentration. PM_2.5 and each of its major ionic components were significantly correlated in space across all pairs of monitoring sites in the region, suggesting the influence of meteorology and long-range transport on regional PM_2.5 concentrations. Statistically significant autocorrelation was observed among time series of PM_2.5 and component data collected at daily and 1-in-4-day frequencies during SCAMP. Results of spatial analyses that accounted for autocorrelation were generally consistent with findings from previous studies that did not consider autocorrelation; however, these analyses also indicated that failure to account for autocorrelation can lead to incorrect conclusions about statistical significance.     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

Chlorinated paraffins: a review of analysis and environmental occurrence

Chlorinated paraffins (CPs), as technical mixtures of polychlorinated alkanes (PCAs), are ubiquitous in the environment. CPs tend to behave in a similar way to persistent organic pollutants (POPs), leading several countries to impose regulations on the use of CPs. In this article, we review the literature on the properties of CPs, the current analytical tools available to determine CPs in various types of environmental matrices, and concentrations found in the environment. In particular, concentrations of CPs in environmental compartments including air, water, sediments, biota, human food products and human tissues are summarized. Priorities for future research are: improvements in analytical methodologies (reducing the complexity of the analysis, producing reference materials and performing interlaboratory studies); determining background levels of chlorinated paraffins in the environment and human populations (this question should be answered using quality assured analytical tools allowing the intercomparison of data); and investigating the sources of CPs to the environment and to humans.     

Brazil's Electric Power Choices and Their Corresponding Carbon Emissions Implications

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilianpower sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructedto test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline:advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon(C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios throughchanges in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies,demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in theabsence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil's electric powersector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gasplants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in theprice of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technologycould change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency andcogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Savingelectricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply andhas enormous potential in Brazil's industrial sector. Efficiency also reducesthe environmental burden associated with electricity production andtransmission, without compromising the quality of the services demandedby end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will remainrelatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.     

Squeezing light out of crystals: Triboluminescence

Triboluminescence is the light emitted when mechanical energy is applied to a crystal. Many common substances such as sugar and copper sulfate are triboluminescent. The origin of the light and the mechanical, chemical, and crystallographic requirements of the phenomenon are described in this paper.     

Isotopic characterisation of lead in contaminated soils from the vicinity of a non-ferrous metal smelter near Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Soil samples from the vicinity of a non-ferrous metal smelter near Plovdiv, Bulgaria contained very high concentrations of cadmium, lead and zinc (up to 140, 4900 and 5900 mg kg(-1), respectively). A roadside soil in a relatively uncontaminated area also contained high concentrations of the same metals (24, 1550 and 1870 mg kg(-1), respectively) indicating that the transport of ores could be a source of contamination. Even though the lead isotope ratios in all the samples fell within a very narrow range (for example, 1.186-1.195 for (206)Pb/(207)Pb), the samples could be differentiated into three distinct groups: ores ((206)Pb/(207)Pb and (208)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of 1.1874-1.1884 and 2.4755-2.4807, respectively), current deposition (1.1864 and 2.4704-2.4711, respectively) and local background (1.1927-1.1951 and 2.4772-2.4809, respectively). Although most of the current deposition has its origin in the ores used at the smelter, up to 12% could be from other sources such as petrol lead.     

Management practices that concentrate visitor activities: camping impact management at Isle Royale National Park,USA

This study assessed campsite conditions and the effectiveness of campsite impact management strategies at Isle Royale National Park, USA. Protocols for assessing indicators of vegetation and soil conditions were developed and applied to 156 campsites and 88 shelters within 36 backcountry campgrounds. The average site was 68 m2 and 83% of sites lost vegetation over areas less than 47 m2. We believe that management actions implemented to spatially concentrate camping activities and reduce camping disturbance have been highly successful. Comparisons of disturbed area/overnight stay among other protected areas reinforces this assertion. These reductions in area of camping disturbance are attributed to a designated site camping policy, limitation on site numbers, construction of sites in sloping terrain, use of facilities, and an ongoing program of campsite maintenance. Such actions are most appropriate in higher use backcountry and wilderness settings.     

ADJUSTMENT OF STREAM CHANNEL CAPACITY FOLLOWING DAM CLOSURE,YEGUA CREEK,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long‐term implications for sediment delivery through the system.