Albatross populations in peril: a population trajectory for black-browed albatrosses at south Georgia.

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross (Diomedea melanophris) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from "Vulnerable" to "Endangered." Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988-1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be "delisted," a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.     

家庭运输和损耗:食物生命周期中与环境有关的家务活动

在对食物生产系统进行环境相关的系统分析中,消费者阶段(家庭运输、烹制、储存和损耗)是整个食物生命周期中对环境产生影响的一个重要因素.然而,家庭是食物链中调查最少的部分.对家庭信息的收集有很多困难,因为家庭数量庞大,同时与食物相关的活动通常会与其它家务劳动活动混合在一起.环境系统分析和消费者研究两领域研究人员相互合作,通过用问卷、日记和采访面谈的方式调查瑞典的家庭,收集了关于家庭食物运输和损耗的数据.每户每周的平均运输距离是28～63km不等,而这主要依靠怎样分配和其它差事相搭配的运输任务.调制食品时的损耗变化范围是0～34%,而不同类型的食品会有所不同.储存的损耗率为0～164%(因为有更多的食物被扔掉,如对食橱的清理,而不是消费).在调制和储存两阶段中奶制品因损耗少而得分最高.     

The integration of EIA and planning in New Zealand: changing process and practice

The Resource Management Act, passed in 1991, has significantly revised the practice of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) in New Zealand. In contrast to a previous emphasis on environmental impact reports of major projects, the new requirements call for environmental impact assessment of all resource consent applications and of all regional, district and city policies and plans. This signals a change directed at incorporating environmental considerations into day‐to‐day planning decisions, with the purpose of achieving sustainable management. The paper identifies and discusses some key issues which are critical for successful integration of EIA within a planning framework.     

Is remaining indoors an effective way of reducing exposure to fine particulate matter during biomass burning events?

Bushfires, prescribed burns, and residential wood burning are significant sources of fine particles (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM_2.5) affecting the health and well-being of many communities. Despite the lack of evidence, a common public health recommendation is to remain indoors, assuming that the home provides a protective barrier against ambient PM_2.5. The study aimed to assess to what extent houses provide protection against peak concentrations of outdoor PM_2.5 and whether remaining indoors is an effective way of reducing exposure to PM_2.5. The effectiveness of this strategy was evaluated by conducting simultaneous week-long indoor and outdoor measurements of PM_2.5 at 21 residences in regional areas of Victoria, Australia. During smoke plume events, remaining indoors protected residents from peak outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations, but the level of protection was highly variable, ranging from 12% to 76%. Housing stock (e.g., age of the house) and ventilation (e.g., having windows/doors open or closed) played a significant role in the infiltration of outdoor PM_2.5 indoors. The results also showed that leaving windows and doors closed once the smoke plume abates trapped PM_2.5 indoors and increased indoor exposure to PM_2.5. Furthermore, for approximately 50% of households, indoor sources such as cooking activities, smoking, and burning candles or incense contributed significantly to indoor PM_2.5.

Implications: Smoke from biomass burning sources can significantly impact on communities. Remaining indoors with windows and doors closed is a common recommendation by health authorities to minimize exposures to peak concentrations of fine particles during smoke plume events. Findings from this study have shown that the protection from fine particles in biomass burning smoke is highly variable among houses, with information on housing age and ventilation status providing an approximate assessment on the protection of a house. Leaving windows closed once a smoke plume abates traps particles indoors and increases exposures.     

An assessment of the sensitivity and reliability of the relative reduction factor approach in the development of 8-hr ozone attainment plans

The updated regulatory framework for demonstrating that future 8-hr ozone (O3) design values will be at or below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) provides guidelines for the development of a State Implementation Plan (SIP) that includes methods based on photochemical modeling and analytical techniques. One of the suggested approaches is the relative reduction factor (RRF) for estimating the efficacy of emission reductions. In this study, the sensitivity of model-predicted responses towards emission reductions to the choice of meteorology and chemical mechanisms was examined. While the different modeling simulations generally were found to be in agreement on whether predicted future-year design values would be above or below the NAAQS for 8-hr O3 at a majority of the monitoring locations in the eastern United States, differences existed for a small percentage of monitors (approximately 6.4%). Another issue investigated was the ability of the attainment demonstration procedure to predict changes in monitored O3 design values. A retrospective analysis was performed by comparing predicted O3 design values from model simulations using emission estimates for 1996 and 2001 with monitored O3 design values for 2001. Results indicated that an average gross error of approximately 5 ppb was present between modeled and observed design values and that, at approximately 27% of all sites, model-predicted and observed design values disagreed as to whether the design value was above or below the NAAQS. Retrospective analyses such as the one presented in this study can provide valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of modeling and analysis techniques used to predict future design values over time periods of a decade or more for the purpose of developing SIPs. Furthermore, such analyses could provide avenues for improvement and added confidence in the use of the RRF approach for addressing attainment of the NAAQS.     

Occurrence and persistence of perfluorooctanesulfonate and other perfluorinated surfactants in groundwater at a fire-training area at Wurtsmith Air Force Base,Michigan, USA

Various formulations of fire-extinguishing materials, including aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs), were used as part of fire-training exercises conducted at Wurtsmith Air Force Base (WAFB) in northeastern Michigan from the 1950s until the base was decommissioned in 1993. As a result of past fire-training exercises, AFFF-laden wastewater containing fuels, solvents, and other materials directly entered groundwater without prior treatment. Perfluorinated surfactants are key components in some AFFF formulations. In this study, groundwater was analyzed for perfluoroalkanesulfonates and perfluorocarboxylates. Perfluoroalkanesulfonates were directly detected using negative-ion electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. Derivatized perfluorocarboxylates were detected using electron impact gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Groundwater from wells around fire-training area FTA-02 at WAFB contained four perfluorinated surfactants ranging in concentration from 3 to 120 microg L(-1): perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS); perfluorohexanesulfonate; perfluorooctanoate; and perfluorohexanoate. This is the first report demonstrating that PFOS, recently shown to be toxic to organisms ranging from zooplankton to primates, is still present in groundwater in measurable quantities five or more years after its last known use.     

Impacts of ocean CO2 disposal on marine life: II. Probabilistic plume exposure model used with a time‐varying dose‐response analysis

A method to evaluate aquatic mortality given a pollutant distribution is presented and applied to several sample low pH plumes representing various ocean CO₂ disposal schemes. The method is an improvement over current analysis because it integrates the mortality due to timevarying exposure to low pH with the probabilistic experiences of passive organisms subject to turbulent lateral diffusion as they pass through the plume. For the examples presented, the plume was discretized laterally into lanes and longitudinally by time steps, and a random walk model accounting for the scaledependent nature of relative diffusion was used to simulate the organism pathways over one time step. From these simulations, the probability that an organism will be in a given lane, , one time step after it starts from an initial lane, , was determined for all combinations of and . These probabilities were used to find the number of organisms following each of the possible pathways, and the mortality to the organisms due to their time varying exposure to low pH was determined by using the toxicity model described in part I of this paper. The integrated method allows the impact of the plume to be described in terms of total organism mortality as well as spatial deficit of organisms.     

Impacts of ocean CO2 disposal on marine life: I. A toxicological assessment integrating constant‐concentration laboratory assay data with variable‐concentration field exposure

Feasibility studies suggest that the concept of capturing CO₂ from fossil fuel power plants and discharging it to the deep ocean could help reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, the local reduction in seawater pH near the point of injection is a potential environmental impact. Data from the literature reporting on toxicity of reduced pH to marine organisms potentially affected by such a plume were combined into a model expressing mortality as a function of pH and exposure time. Since organisms exposed to real plumes would experience a time‐varying pH, methods to account for a variable exposure were reviewed and a new method developed based on the concept of isomortality. In part II of this paper, the method is combined with a random‐walk model describing the transport of passive organisms through a low pH plume leading to a Monte‐Carlo‐like risk assessment which is applied to several candidate CO₂ injection scenarios.     

IMPROVED RAINFALL/RUNOFF ESTIMATES USING REMOTELY SENSED SOIL MOISTURE1

ABSTRACT: Remotely sensed soil moisture data measured during the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) experiment in Oklahoma were used to characterize antecedent soil moisture conditions for the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. The precipitation‐adjusted curve number and the soil moisture were strongly related (r²= 0.70). Remotely sensed soil moisture fields were used to adjust the curve numbers and the runoff estimates for five watersheds, in the Little Washita watershed; the results ranged from 2.8 km² to 601.6 km². The soil moisture data were applied at two spatial scales, a finer one (800 m) measuring spatial resolution and a coarser one (28 km). The root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the runoff estimated by the standard SCS method was reduced by nearly 50 percent when the 800 m soil moisture data were used to adjust the curve number. The coarser scale soil moisture data also significantly reduced the error in the runoff predictions with 41 percent and 28 percent reductions in MAE and RMSE, respectively. The results suggest that remote sensing of soil moisture, when combined with the SCS method, can improve rainfall runoff predictions at a range of spatial scales.