Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The Index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an ‘unweighted’ form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

A bioassay approach to determine the dioxin-like activity in sediment extracts from the Danube River: ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase induction in gill filaments and liver of three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.)

Sediment samples from the upper Danube River in Germany have previously been characterized as ecotoxicologically hazardous and contaminants in these sediments may contribute to the observed decline of fish populations in this river section. For the investigation of sediment toxicity there is a need for development, standardization and implementation of in vivo test systems using vertebrates. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to apply and evaluate a recently established fish gill EROD assay as a biomarker in sediment toxicity assessment by using extracts of well characterised sediment samples from the upper Danube River. This to our knowledge is the first application of this novel assay to sediment extracts. Sediments from four different sites along the upper Danube River were Soxhlet-extracted with acetone and dissolved in DMSO. Three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) were exposed for 48 h to various concentrations of the extracts, to the positive control beta-naphthoflavone or to the solvent. Measurements of EROD activity in gill filaments and liver microsomes followed the exposure. Concentration-dependent induction of EROD in both gill and liver was found for all sediment extracts. The highest EROD-inducing potency was determined for extracts of sediments from the sites "Opfinger See" and "Sigmaringen" and the EROD activities in gill and liver correlated well. The results from the gill and liver assays were in accordance with in vitro results of previous investigations. The EROD activities measured in the present study corresponded with the concentrations of PAHs, PCBs and PCDD/Fs in the sediment samples derived in a previous study. The sticklebacks in this study were in the reproductive phase and a stronger EROD induction was obtained in the females than in the males. Implementation of the EROD assay in testing of sediment extracts gave highly reliable results which make this assay an ecotoxicologically relevant method for assessment of contamination with Ah receptor agonists in sediments.     

Sectoral marginal abatement cost curves: implications for mitigation pledges and air pollution co-benefits for Annex I countries

Using the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, we derived Annex I marginal abatement cost curves for the years 2020 and 2030 for three World Energy Outlook baseline scenarios (2007–2009) of the International Energy Agency. These cost curves are presented by country, by greenhouse gas and by sector. They are available for further inter-country comparisons in the GAINS Mitigation Efforts Calculator—a free online tool. We illustrate the influence of the baseline scenario on the shape of mitigation cost curves, and identify key low cost options as well as no-regret priority investment areas for the years 2010–2030. Finally, we show the co-effect of GHG mitigation on the emissions of local air pollutants and argue that these co-benefits offer strong local incentives for mitigation.     

Method for determination of methane potentials of solid organic waste

A laboratory procedure is described for measuring methane potentials of organic solid waste. Triplicate reactors with 10 grams of volatile solids were incubated at 55 degrees C with 400 ml of inoculum from a thermophilic biogas plant and the methane production was followed over a 50-day period by regular measurements of methane on a gas chromatograph. The procedure involves blanks as well as cellulose controls. Methane potentials have been measured for source-separated organic household waste and for individual waste materials. The procedure has been evaluated regarding practicality, workload, detection limit, repeatability and reproducibility as well as quality control procedures. For the source-separated organic household waste a methane potential of 495 ml CH4/g VS was found. For fat and oil a lag-phase of several days was seen. The protein sample was clearly inhibited and the maximal methane potential was therefore not achieved. For paper bags, starch and glucose 63, 84 and 94% of the theoretical methane potential was achieved respectively. A detection limit of 72.5 ml CH4/g VS was calculated from the results. This is acceptable, since the methane potential of the tested waste materials was in the range of 200-500 ml CH4/g VS. The determination of methane potentials is a biological method subject to relatively large variation due to the use of non-standardized inoculum and waste heterogeneity. Therefore, procedures for addressing repeatability and reproducibility are suggested.     

A conceptual framework for understanding illegal killing of large carnivores

The growing complexity and global nature of wildlife poaching threaten the survival of many species worldwide and are outpacing conservation efforts. Here, we reviewed proximal and distal factors, both social and ecological, driving illegal killing or poaching of large carnivores at sites where it can potentially occur. Through this review, we developed a conceptual social–ecological system framework that ties together many of the factors influencing large carnivore poaching. Unlike most conservation action models, an important attribute of our framework is the integration of multiple factors related to both human motivations and animal vulnerability into feedbacks. We apply our framework to two case studies, tigers in Laos and wolverines in northern Sweden, to demonstrate its utility in disentangling some of the complex features of carnivore poaching that may have hindered effective responses to the current poaching crisis. Our framework offers a common platform to help guide future research on wildlife poaching feedbacks, which has hitherto been lacking, in order to effectively inform policy making and enforcement.