The CPCAT as a novel tool to overcome the shortcomings of NOEC/LOEC statistics in ecotoxicology: a simulation study to evaluate the statistical power

Species reproduction is an important determinant of population dynamics. As such, this is an important parameter in environmental risk assessment. The closure principle computational approach test (CPCAT) was recently proposed as a method to derive a NOEC/LOEC for reproduction count data such as the number of juvenile Daphnia. The Poisson distribution used by CPCAT can be too restrictive as a model of the data-generating process. In practice, the generalized Poisson distribution could be more appropriate, as it allows for inequality of the population mean \(\mu\) and the population variance \(\sigma ^2\). It is of fundamental interest to explore the statistical power of CPCAT and the probability of determining a regulatory relevant effect correctly. Using a simulation, we varied between Poisson distribution (\(\mu =\sigma ^2\)) and generalized Poisson distribution allowing for over-dispersion (\(\mu <\sigma ^2\)) and under-dispersion (\(\mu >\sigma ^2\)). The results indicated that the probability of detecting the LOEC/NOEC correctly was \(\ge 0.8\) provided the effect was at least 20% above or below the mean level of the control group and mean reproduction of the control was at least 50 individuals while over-dispersion was missing. Specifically, under-dispersion increased, whereas over-dispersion reduced the statistical power of the CPCAT. Using the well-known Hampel identifier, we propose a simple and straight forward method to assess whether the data-generating process of real data could be over- or under-dispersed.     

Social network analysis and valid Markov chain Monte Carlo tests of null models

Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.

A distributed modelling system for simulation of monthly runoff and nitrogen sources, loads and sinks for ungauged catchments in Denmark

We validated an existing physically based 3D MIKE SHE groundwater resource model (DK-model) at 175 Danish gauging stations covering different catchment sizes in order to calculate monthly water runoff in the 50% ungauged part of Denmark. Model performance was in most cases good (61% of gauging stations had a Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient >0.60) but nevertheless showed a large seasonal and georegion specific bias. Therefore, bias correction factors had to be developed before applying the DK-model simulations of runoff in the ungauged areas. Simulated monthly runoff from ungauged areas and the measured monthly runoff from 178 gauging stations were distributed to 2663 smaller Hydrological Units (ca. 15 km(2)) and linked with a new empirical model for flow-weighted monthly total nitrogen (TN) concentrations (R(2) = 0.43; P < 0.0001) developed based on 20 years of observations (1990-2009) in 83 small catchments for calculation of monthly gross diffuse TN-loads from HU's. Nitrogen retention was calculated in streams, lakes and wetlands utilising both lake specific models and rate coefficients to calculate N retention in surface water bodies. The whole model complex was linked in the DK-QN concept for simulation of monthly TN losses from point sources and diffuse sources, TN retention and resulting loadings to Danish coastal waters. The DK-QN model was validated in 118 gauged catchments and the model simulations had for >25% of the observations of monthly discharge weighted TN concentrations a NS larger than 0.26. Catchment specific monthly TN-loadings were modelled with a higher performance as 50% of the catchments had a NS greater than 0.75. The model concept allows calculation of N retention in streams, lakes and wetlands and the average annual model calculated N retention amounted to 21% of the modelled gross riverine TN loadings. The average annual gross TN loading to surface freshwater in Denmark derived from diffuse sources amounted to 97 000 tonnes N (91% of gross TN loadings) which is 54% of the total estimated N-leaching from the root zone on the Danish land area (212 000 tonnes N) during the period 1990-2009.     

Dispersion and bioaccumulation of elements from an open-pit olivine mine in Southwest Greenland assessed using lichens, seaweeds, mussels and fish

This study investigated dispersion and bioaccumulation of mining-related elements from an open-pit olivine mine at Seqi in Southwest Greenland (64°?N) using lichens (Flavocetraria nivalis), seaweeds (Fucus vesiculosus), mussels (Mytilus edulis) and fish (Myoxocephalus scorpius). The mine operated between 2005 and 2009, and samples were taken every year within a monitoring area 0–17 km from the mine during the period 2004–2011. A total of 46 elements were analysed in the samples. After mining began, highly elevated metal concentrations, especially nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe) and cobalt (Co), were observed in lichens relative to pre-mining levels (up to a factor of 130) caused by dust dispersion from the mining activity. Elevated metal concentrations could be measured in lichens in distances up to ~5 km from the mine/ore treatment facility. Moderately elevated concentrations of Ni and Cr (up to a factor of 7) were also observed in seaweeds and mussels but only in close vicinity (<1 km) to the mine. Analyses of fish showed no significant changes in element composition. After mine closure, the elevated metal concentrations in lichens, seaweeds and mussels decreased markedly, and in 2011, significantly elevated metal concentrations could only be measured in lichens and only within a distance of 1 km from the mine.     

A chemical view of the most ancient metazoa--biomarker chemotaxonomy of hexactinellid sponges

Hexactinellid sponges are often considered to be the most ancient metazoans. Lipid biomarkers from 23 species were studied for information on their phylogenetic properties, particularly their disputed relation to the two other sponge classes (Demospongiae, Calcarea). The most prominent lipid compounds in the Hexactinellida comprise C28 to C32 polyenoic fatty acids. Their structures parallel the unique patterns found in demosponge membrane fatty acids ('demospongic acids') and strongly support a close phylogenetic association of the Demospongiae and the Hexactinellida. Both taxa also show unusual mid-chain methylated fatty acids (C15-C25) and irregular C25- and C40-isoprenoid hydrocarbons, tracers for specific eubacteria and Archaea, respectively. These biomarkers indicate a similar, highly conservative symbiont community, although some shift in the abundance of the associated microbiota was observed. The lack of these features in calcareous sponges further contradicts the still common view that Calcarea and Demospongiae are more closely related to each other than either is to the Hexactinellida.     

Occurrence and distribution of PCB metabolites in blood and their potential health effects in humans: a review

In recent years, attention has been directed to chemicals with possible endocrine-disrupting properties. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and their metabolites belong to one group of environmental contaminants that have been shown to interact with the endocrine system in mammals, including humans. Although recent developments have been made in terms of determination of PCB metabolites in blood samples, still limited number of studies have been able to elucidate their profiles and toxicological and health effects in humans. This review aims to evaluate and compare the levels of hydroxylated PCBs (OH-PCBs) and methyl sulfone PCBs (MeSO₂-PCBs) in blood and their relationship to parent compounds and also address the potential risks and adverse health effects in humans. Levels of OH-PCBs varied between 0.0002 and 1.6 ng g^?1 w/w in human serum/plasma from the selected literature, correlating well with ∑PCBs. In contrast, ∑OH-PCB/∑PCB ratio in animals did not show a significant correlation, which might suggest that the bioaccumulation plays an even more important role in the concentration of OH-PCBs compared to PCB metabolism. Highest levels of MeSO₂-PCBs were reported in marine mammals with high selectivity retention in the liver. Health effects of PCB metabolites included carcinogenicity, reproductive impairment, and developmental neurotoxicity, being more efficiently transferred to the brain and across the placenta from mother to fetus in comparison to the parent PCBs. Based on the lack of knowledge on the occurrence and distribution of lower chlorinated OH-PCBs in humans, further studies to identify and assess the risks associated to human exposure are essential.     

Degrader density determines spatial variability of 2,6-dichlorobenzamide mineralisation in soil

The metabolite 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM) is a frequent groundwater pollutant produced during degradation of the herbicide 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile (dichlobenile). Spatial variability of BAM mineralisation is uncharacterized in surface soil, however, and factors controlling the heterogeneity remain unknown. We addressed these issues by sample-to-sample comparisons of BAM mineralisation rates and a range of soil characteristics at spatial scales ranging from meters to centimetres. For mineralisation assays nano-molar concentrations of labelled BAM were added to determine mineralisation rates under realistic conditions. We found a significant variability of BAM mineralisation which increased with decreasing spatial scale. BAM mineralisation rates were correlated to the density of BAM-degrading bacteria but not to water content, TOC, NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, or pH. The genus Aminobacter, which contains the only BAM degraders known, was detected in MPN samples of BAM degraders by a specific PCR assay targeting the 16S rRNA gene, confirming a role of Aminobacter in BAM mineralisation.     

Pb isotopes as tracers of mining-related Pb in lichens, seaweed and mussels near a former Pb-Zn mine in West Greenland

Identification of mining-related contaminants is important in order to assess the spreading of contaminants from mining as well as for site remediation purposes. This study focuses on lead (Pb) contamination in biota near the abandoned ‘Black Angel Mine’ in West Greenland in the period 1988-2008. Stable Pb isotope ratios and total Pb concentrations were determined in lichens, seaweed and mussels as well as in marine sediments. The results show that natural background Pb (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb: 0.704-0.767) and Pb originating from the mine ore (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb: 0.955) have distinct isotopic fingerprints. Total Pb in lichens, seaweed, and mussels was measured at values up to 633, 19 and 1536 mg kg⁻¹ dry weight, respectively, and is shown to be a mixture of natural Pb and ore-Pb. This enables quantification of mining-related Pb and shows that application of Pb isotope data is a valuable tool for monitoring mining pollution.     

Recovery from acidification in Swedish forest streams

Sulphur deposition in Sweden has decreased to less than half of the levels recorded in 1970 and now signs of recovery from acidification of surface waters are beginning to appear. We investigated time trends of water chemistry between 1985 and 1998 in 13 streams draining small forested catchments with generally shallow acid sensitive soils. At nine of the catchments, bulk deposition was monitored as well. Sulphate concentrations decreased in both stream water and deposition, although with somewhat smaller trends in stream water compared with deposition. The magnitude of the trends in sulphate increased from north to south, following a gradient of increasing industrial influence. Five sites in the southern half of the country showed weak signs of recovery from acidification in terms of increasing concentrations of acid neutralising capacity and decreasing concentrations of hydrogen ions, corresponding to annual increases of 0.01 pH units. Changes in stream discharge and concentrations of marine salts and organic acids could not explain the observed decrease in acidity and the results were interpreted as recovery from anthropogenic acidification. For the northern half of Sweden, any changes in water chemistry could be attributed to natural variation in climate and marine influence, and the effect of anthropogenic acidification was negligible.