Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Implications of geographic variability on Comparative Toxicity Potentials of Cu, Ni and Zn in freshwaters of Canadian ecoregions

Current methods of estimating potential environmental impacts of metals in hazard and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) do not consider differences in chemistry and landscape properties between geographic sites. Here, we developed and applied a model for regional aquatic impact characterization of metals using an updated method for estimating environmental fate factor (FF), bioavailability factor (BF) and aquatic ecotoxicity factor (EF). We applied the model to analyze differences in Comparative Toxicity Potentials (CTPs) of Cu, Ni and Zn for 24 Canadian ecoregions. The combined impacts of regional variability in ambient chemistry (in particular DOC, pH and hardness) and landscape properties (water residence time) can change the CTPs of these metals for freshwater by up to three orders of magnitude and change the relative ranking of metal hazard between ecoregions. Variation among Canadian freshwater chemistries and landscape characteristics influence the FFs within two orders of magnitude, BFs within two orders of magnitude for Ni and Zn and four orders of magnitude for Cu, and EFs within one order of magnitude. Sensitivity of metal FFs to environmental parameters alone spans three orders of magnitude when a constant water chemistry was used for all ecoregions. These results indicate that application of regionalised metal CTPs can have a significant influence in the analysis of ecotoxicological impacts in the life cycle assessment of products and processes.     

Functional redundancy and food web functioning in linuron-exposed ecosystems

An extensive data set describing effects of the herbicide linuron on macrophyte-dominated microcosms was analysed with a food web model to assess effects on ecosystem functioning. We showed that sensitive phytoplankton and periphyton groups in the diets of heterotrophs were gradually replaced by more tolerant phytoplankton species as linuron concentrations increased. This diet shift--showing redundancy among phytoplankton species--allowed heterotrophs to maintain their functions in the contaminated microcosms. On an ecosystem level, total gross primary production was up to hundred times lower in the treated microcosms but the uptake of dissolved organic carbon by bacteria and mixotrophs was less sensitive. Food web efficiency was not consistently lower in the treated microcosms. We conclude that linuron predominantly affected the macrophytes but did not alter the overall functioning of the surrounding planktonic food web. Therefore, a risk assessment that protects macrophyte growth also protects the functioning of macrophyte-dominated microcosms.     

Temporal variations of atmospheric aerosol in four European urban areas

Purpose

The concentrations of PM₁₀ mass, PM_2.5 mass and particle number were continuously measured for 18 months in urban background locations across Europe to determine the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter.

Methods

Daily PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 samples were continuously collected from October 2002 to April 2004 in background areas in Helsinki, Athens, Amsterdam and Birmingham. Particle mass was determined using analytical microbalances with precision of 1 ??g. Pre- and post-reflectance measurements were taken using smoke-stain reflectometers. One-minute measurements of particle number were obtained using condensation particle counters.

Results

The 18-month mean PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 mass concentrations ranged from 15.4 ??g/m³ in Helsinki to 56.7 ??g/m³ in Athens and from 9.0 ??g/m³ in Helsinki to 25.0 ??g/m³ in Athens, respectively. Particle number concentrations ranged from 10,091 part/cm³ in Helsinki to 24,180 part/cm³ in Athens with highest levels being measured in winter. Fine particles accounted for more than 60% of PM₁₀ with the exception of Athens where PM_2.5 comprised 43% of PM₁₀. Higher PM mass and number concentrations were measured in winter as compared to summer in all urban areas at a significance level p?Conclusions Significant quantitative and qualitative differences for particle mass across the four urban areas in Europe were observed. These were due to strong local and regional characteristics of particulate pollution sources which contribute to the heterogeneity of health responses. In addition, these findings also bear on the ability of different countries to comply with existing directives and the effectiveness of mitigation policies.     

Effects of C60 nanoparticle exposure on earthworms (Lumbricus rubellus) and implications for population dynamics

Effects of C₆₀ nanoparticles (nominal concentrations 0, 15.4 and 154 mg/kg soil) on mortality, growth and reproduction of Lumbricus rubellus earthworms were assessed. C₆₀ exposure had a significant effect on cocoon production, juvenile growth rate and mortality. These endpoints were used to model effects on the population level. This demonstrated reduced population growth rate with increasing C₆₀ concentrations. Furthermore, a shift in stage structure was shown for C₆₀ exposed populations, i.e. a larger proportion of juveniles. This result implies that the lower juvenile growth rate due to exposure to C₆₀ resulted in a larger proportion of juveniles, despite increased mortality among juveniles. Overall, this study indicates that C₆₀ exposure may seriously affect earthworm populations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that juveniles were more sensitive to C₆₀ exposure than adults.     

Assessing the recovery potential of alpine moss-sedge heath: reciprocal transplants along a nitrogen deposition gradient

The potential of alpine moss-sedge heath to recover from elevated nitrogen (N) deposition was assessed by transplanting Racomitrium lanuginosum shoots and vegetation turfs between 10 elevated N deposition sites (8.2-32.9 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and a low N deposition site, Ben Wyvis (7.2 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). After two years, tissue N of Racomitrium shoots transplanted from higher N sites to Ben Wyvis only partially equilibrated to reduced N deposition whereas reciprocal transplants almost matched the tissue N of indigenous moss. Unexpectedly, moss shoot growth was stimulated at higher N deposition sites. However, moss depth and biomass increased in turfs transplanted to Ben Wyvis, apparently due to slower shoot turnover (suggested to result partly from decreased tissue C:N slowing decomposition), whilst abundance of vascular species declined. Racomitrium heath has the potential to recover from the impacts of N deposition; however, this is constrained by the persistence of enhanced moss tissue N contents.     

Soil nitrogen transformations under elevated atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ during the soybean growing season

We investigated the influence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O₃ decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO₂ did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO₂ may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O₃ can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues.     

Stepwise calibration of the activated sludge model no. 1 at a partially denitrifying large wastewater treatment plant

Activated sludge modeling technology is maturing; however, currently, there exists a great need to increase its use in daily engineering practice worldwide. A good way for building the capacities of the practitioners is to promote good modeling practices and standardize the protocols. In this study, a systematic procedure was proposed to calibrate the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) at a large wastewater treatment plant, by which the model adequately predicted the quality of the effluent and the sludge quantities. A hydraulics model was set up and validated through a tracer test. The Vesilind settling constants were measured and combined with the default value of the flocculent zone settling parameter, to calibrate the clarifiers. A virtual anoxic tank was installed in the return activated sludge to mimic the denitrification occurring in the settlers. In ASM1, the calibrated parameters were only two influent chemical oxygen demand fractions and one kinetic constant (oxygen half-saturation coefficient).