Early detection and identification of dangerous states in chemical plants using neural networks

The suitability of pattern recognition for safety diagnosis of chemical plants will be discussed. Therefore, experiments in a miniplant and with a process simulator are carried out. The process characteristics are treated with different recognition methods and classified with the aid of expert know how. Afterwards, the trained system can be used for process diagnosis. The capability of neural networks for this problem could be shown.     

Why are metapopulations so rare?

Roughly 40 years after its introduction, the metapopulation concept is central to population ecology. The notion that local populations and their dynamics may be coupled by dispersal is without any doubt of great importance for our understanding of population-level processes. A metapopulation describes a set of subpopulations linked by (rare) dispersal events in a dynamic equilibrium of extinctions and recolonizations. In the large body of literature that has accumulated, the term "metapopulation" is often used in a very broad sense; most of the time it simply implies spatial heterogeneity. A number of reviews have recently addressed this problem and have pointed out that, despite the large and still growing popularity of the metapopulation concept, there are only very few empirical examples that conform with the strict classical metapopulation (CM) definition. In order to understand this discrepancy between theory and observation, we use an individual-based modeling approach that allows us to pinpoint the environmental conditions and the life-history attributes required for the emergence of a CM structure. We find that CM dynamics are restricted to a specific parameter range at the border between spatially structured but completely occupied and globally extinct populations. Considering general life-history attributes, our simulations suggest that CMs are more likely to occur in arthropod species than in (large) vertebrates. Since the specific type of spatial population structure determines conservation concepts, our findings have important implications for conservation biology. Our model suggests that most spatially structured populations are panmictic, patchy, or of mainland-island type, which makes efforts spent on increasing connectivity (e.g., corridors) questionable. If one does observe a true CM structure, this means that the focal metapopulation is on the brink of extinction and that drastic conservation measures are needed.     

Evaluation of factors influencing soluble microbial product in submerged MBR through hybrid ASM model

In this study, a mathematical model was established to predict the formation of the soluble microbial product (SMP) in a submerged membrane bioreactor. The developed model was calibrated under the reference condition. Simulation results were in good agreement with the measured results under the reference condition. The calibrated model was then used in the scenario studies to evaluate the effect of three chosen operating parameters: hydraulic retention time (HRT), dissolved oxygen concentration, and sludge retention time (SRT). Simulation results revealed that the SMP dominated the soluble organic substances in the supernatant. The scenario studies also revealed that the HRT can be decreased to 1 h without deteriorating the effluent quality; dissolved oxygen concentration in the reactor can be kept at 2–3 mg/L to maintain the effluent quality, reduce the content of SMP, and minimize operating costs; the optimal SRT can be controlled to 10–15 d to achieve complete nitrification process, less membrane fouling potential, and acceptable organic removal efficiency.     

A summer heat wave decreases the immunocompetence of the mesograzer, Idotea baltica

Extreme events associated with global change will impose increasing stress on coastal organisms. How strong biological interactions such as the host–parasite arms-race are modulated by environmental change is largely unknown. The immune system of invertebrates, in particular phagocytosis and phenoloxidase activity response are key defence mechanisms against parasites, yet they may be sensitive to environmental perturbations. We here simulated an extreme event that mimicked the European heat wave in 2003 to investigate the effect of environmental change on the immunocompetence of the mesograzer Idotea baltica. Unlike earlier studies, our experiment aimed at simulation of the natural situation as closely as possible by using long acclimation, a slow increase in temperature and a natural community setting including the animals’ providence with natural food sources (Zostera marina and Fucus vesiculosus). Our results demonstrate that a simulated heat wave results in decreased immunocompetence of the mesograzer Idotea baltica, in particular a drop of phagocytosis by 50%. This suggests that global change has the potential to significantly affect host–parasite interactions.     

Direct and indirect effects of CO2, nitrogen, and community diversity on plant-enemy interactions

Resource abundance and plant diversity are two predominant factors hypothesized to influence the amount of damage plants receive from natural enemies. Many impacts of these environmental variables on plant damage are likely indirect and result because both resource availability and diversity can influence plant traits associated with attractiveness to herbivores or susceptibility to pathogens. We used a long-term, manipulative field experiment to investigate how carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment, nitrogen (N) fertilization, and plant community diversity affect plant traits and the amount of herbivore and pathogen damage experienced by the common prairie legume Lespedeza capitata. We detected little evidence that CO2 or N affected plant traits; however, plants growing in high-diversity treatments (polycultures) were taller, were less pubescent, and produced thinner leaves (higher specific leaf area). Interestingly, we also detected little evidence that CO2 or N affect damage. Plants growing in polycultures compared to monocultures, however, experienced a fivefold increase in damage from generalist herbivores, 64% less damage from specialist herbivores, and 91% less damage from pathogens. Moreover, within diversity treatments, damage by generalist herbivores was negatively correlated with pubescence and often was positively correlated with plant height, while damage by specialist herbivores typically was positively correlated with pubescence and negatively associated with height. These patterns are consistent with changes in plant traits driving differences in herbivory between diversity treatments. In contrast, changes in measured plant traits did not explain the difference in disease incidence between monocultures and polycultures. In summary, our data provide little evidence that CO2 or N supply alter damage from natural enemies. By contrast, plants grown in monocultures experienced greater specialist herbivore and pathogen damage but less generalist herbivore damage than plants grown in diverse communities. Part of this diversity effect was mediated by changes in plant traits, many of which likely are plastic responses to diversity treatments, but some of which may be the result of evolutionary changes in response to these long-term experimental manipulations.     

A cross-country comparison of pregnant women's decision-making and perspectives when opting for non-invasive prenatal testing in the Netherlands and Belgium

Background

The Netherlands and Belgium have been among the first countries to offer non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) as a first-tier screening test. Despite similarities, differences exist in counseling modalities and test uptake. This study explored decision-making and perspectives of pregnant women who opted for NIPT in both countries.

Methods

A questionnaire study was performed among pregnant women in the Netherlands (NL) (n = 587) and Belgium (BE) (n = 444) opting for NIPT, including measures on informed choice, personal and societal perspectives on trisomy 21, 18 and 13 and pregnancy termination.

Results

Differences between Dutch and Belgian women were shown in the level of informed choice (NL: 83% vs. BE: 59%, p < 0.001), intention to terminate the pregnancy in case of confirmed trisomy 21 (NL: 51% vs. BE: 62%, p = 0.003) and trisomy 13/18 (NL: 80% vs. BE: 73%, p = 0.020). More Belgian women considered trisomy 21 a severe condition (NL: 64% vs. BE: 81%, p < 0.001). Belgian women more frequently indicated that they believed parents are judged for having a child with trisomy 21 (BE: 42% vs. NL: 16%, p < 0.001) and were less positive about quality of care and support for children with trisomy 21 (BE: 23% vs. NL: 62%, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Differences in women's decision-making regarding NIPT and the conditions screened for may be influenced by counseling aspects and country-specific societal and cultural contexts.     

Braucht Substitution mehr Staat oder mehr Markt?

Ziel und Hintergrund

In den bisherigen REACH-Verordnungsentwürfen wird als einer der wichtigen Gründe für die Gesetzes-initiative ‘die Schaffung von Anreizen für die Substitution gefährlicher durch weniger gefährliche Stoffe’ genannt (REACH 2003, 61). Damit wird die Frage aktuell, was denn Unternehmen als Wirtschaftssubjekte ‘anreizen’ oder eben auch ‘nicht anreizen’ kann, gefährliche chemikalien zu substituieren: Welche Marktkräfte wirken bereits positiv, die durch regulative Vorgaben eventuell verstärkt werden können, und welche die Substitution behindernden Marktkräfte sollten durch regulative Maßnahmen abgeschwächt werden?

Schwerpunkte

Die Autoren untersuchen auf Basis ihrer Vorarbeiten und Fallstudien zur Substitution die Rahmenbedingungen — Treiber und blockierende Faktoren — für Substitution. Dabei werden auch aktuelle Positionen zur Substitutionsproblematik einbezogen, so z.B. die Stellungnahme des Ausschusses für Umwelt, Gesundheit und Sicherheit der Royal Society of Chemistry (UK), des UK Chemicals Stakeholder Forums sowie die gegenwärtigen Kompromisse zwischen Europäischem Rat und Europäischem Parlament zur Regelung der Substitution unter REACH.

Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen

Gegenwärtig fördern weder die Marktdynamik noch die Gesetzgebung Substitution effektiv genug. Die Unternehmen selbst sind zögerlich, wenn Kosten und Haftungsfragen sowie Kundenprioritäten der Substitution entgegenstehen. Substitution wird vom Gesetzgeber oft nur als Rahmengebot, als Generalklausel, als Anspruch, als Vorrangstrategie oder als Priorität gefordert. Dennoch gibt es sowohl in der Gesetzgebung als auch in der Marktentwicklung positive Ansätze, die regulativ unterstützt werden können.

Perspektive

Der entscheidende Punkt für die Frage der regulativen Substitutionsvorgaben ist, auf welche Weise der Staat die Marktdynamik durch Setzen von Innovationszielen befördern kann. Der Staat sollte in Kooperation mit den Stakeholdern in technischen Dossiers die bekannten Substitutionsmöglichkeiten und Risikominderungsmaßnahmen zusammen stellen, einen Realisierungszeitpunkt vorgeben, Mindeststandards vorschrieben und auch detaillierte Regulation androhen, falls nichts geschieht. Eine case-to-case-Beurteilungs-Methode ist der Substitutionsproblematik in der Regel angemessen, um den Aufwand und die erforderlichen Maßnahmen annähernd genau zu bestimmen.     

Perceived and measured levels of environmental pollution: interdisciplinary research in the subarctic lowlands of northeast European Russia

Using interdisciplinary field research in the Usa Basin, northeast European Russia, we compared local inhabitants' perception of environmental problems with chemical and remote-sensing signatures of environmental pollution and their local impacts. Extensive coal mining since the 1930s around Inta and Vorkuta has left a legacy of pollution, detected by measuring snowpack, topsoil, and lichen chemistry, together with remote-sensing techniques and analysis of lake water and sediments. Vorkuta and its environs suffered the worst impacts, with significant metal loading and alkalization in lakes and topsoils, elevated metals and cations in terricolous (reindeer) lichens, and changes in vegetation communities. Although the coal industry has declined recently, the area boasts a booming oil and gas industry, based around Usinsk. Local perceptions and concerns of environmental pollution and protection were higher in Usinsk, as a result of increased awareness after a major oil spill in 1994, compared with Vorkuta's inhabitants, who perceived air pollution as the primary environmental threat. Our studies indicate that the principal sources of atmospheric emissions and local deposition within 25 to 40 km of Vorkuta were coal combustion from power and heating plants, coal mines, and a cement factory. Local people evaluated air pollution from direct observations and personal experiences, such as discoloration of snow and respiratory problems, whereas scientific knowledge played a minor role in shaping these perceptions.     

Stochastic Multi-species MSY to Achieve Ecological-Economic Sustainability of a Coral Reef Fishery System in French Polynesia

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - This paper investigates the ecological-economic sustainability of coral reef socio-ecological systems under fishing and environmental pressures. To achieve...