Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modeling concentration-dependent sorption-desorption hysteresis of atrazine in a loam soil

Nonequilibrium sorption plays an active role in the transport of organic contaminants in soil. We applied a two-stage, one-rate model (2S1R) and a new, nonlinear variant (2S1RN) of this model to examine the effects of wastewater irrigation on the sorption kinetics of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) in soil. The models were applied to previously published sorption-desorption data sets, which showed pronounced deviations between sorption curves and desorption curves (sorption-desorption hysteresis). Moreover, the slopes of the desorption curves decreased with decreasing concentration. Different treatments had been used, and two experimental time steps (2 and 14 d) were used. Treatments considered were lipid removal, fulvic and humic acid removal, and untreated soil. The 2S1R model was unable to reproduce the observed type of hysteresis, but the 2S1RN model, which assumes that the sorption-desorption process follows a power function relationship, was able to reproduce the observed type of hysteresis. Visually, applying the new model improved the model fits in all test cases. Statistically, as tested by an extra sum of squares analysis, the new model performed significantly better in 50% of all test cases. According to an example simulation, the choice of the sorption model has a considerable impact on the prediction of atrazine transport in soil.     

Emission factors and chemical characterisation of fine particulate emissions from modern and old residential biomass heating systems determined for typical load cycles

It is already well known that there are significant differences regarding the emissions, especially particulate matter (PM) emissions, of old and modern as well as automatically and not automatically controlled biomass based residential heating systems. This concerns their magnitude as well as their chemical composition. In order to investigate emission factors for particulate emissions and the chemical compositions of the PM emissions over typical whole day operation cycles, a project on the determination and characterisation of PM emissions from the most relevant small-scale biomass combustion systems was performed at the BIOENERGY 2020+ GmbH, Graz, Austria, in cooperation with the Institute for Process and Particle Engineering, Graz University of Technology. The project was based on test stand measurements, during which relevant operation parameters (gaseous emissions, boiler load, flue gas temperature, combustion chamber temperature etc.) as well as PM emissions have been measured and PM samples have been taken and forwarded to chemical analyses. Firstly, typical whole day operation cycles for residential biomass combustion systems were specified for the test runs. Thereby automatically fed and automatically controlled boilers, manually fed and automatically controlled boilers as well as manually fed stoves were distinguished. The results show a clear correlation between the gaseous emissions (CO and OGC) and the PM₁ emissions. It is indicated that modern biomass combustion systems emit significantly less gaseous and PM emissions than older technologies (up to a factor of 100). Moreover, automatically fed systems emit much less gaseous and PM emissions than manually fed batch-combustion systems. PM emissions from modern and automatically controlled systems mainly consist of alkaline metal salts, while organic aerosols and soot dominate the composition of aerosols from old and not automatically controlled systems. As an important result comprehensive data concerning gaseous and PM emissions of different old and modern biomass combustion systems over whole day operation cycles are now available. Derived from these data, correlations between burnout quality, particulate emissions as well as particle composition of the PM emissions can be deduced.     

Potentials and impacts of short-rotation coppice plantation with aspen in Eastern Germany under conditions of climate change

Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops: the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields. Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model 4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge, on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations are a suitable contribution to regional CO₂ mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget are possible.     

The growth discourse,growth policy and sustainable development: two thought experiments

This paper addresses three aspects of ‘growth’: the discourse, the policy, and the impacts. The growth discourse claims that the central factor for social, economic, political and environmental progress is economic growth – it is assumed to create wealth, and provide the necessary means for social and environmental purposes. On the basis of the growth discourse, different growth policies can be derived, based on different economic and political ideologies.In order to reveal the implications of de facto degrowth, two thought experiments are conducted, for physical and economic end-to-growth strategies. The latter is capable of meeting environmental objectives, but implies significant social tensions and hardships and calls for transition strategies consisting of carefully designed steps.     

Teil V: Bewertung landwirtschaftlich-industrieller Stoffströme

Agricultural and industrial production chains as product lines are connected and their assessment is performed for a varnish based on linseed oil that is almost completely composed of renewable raw materials. Using a production line analysis, the ecological and social effects of the production are assessed, and different assessment techniques for ecological assessment are used as well. The life cycle inventory results from a material flow analysis including pre-production chains. For optimisation, a scenario of conventional agricultural linseed oil production against ecologically produced linseed oil is assessed. All assessment methods identify the same aspect of the product as the most important: The content of volatile organic compounds (VOC), that are released during usage. Further problems such as waste in the oil mill, emittance of acidic substances (mostly NO_x) from burning and heavy metals from tinplate production for containers are identified only from one or another of the assessment methods, a feature which stresses the influence on results from the choice of method. All methods prefer the ecological production of linseed, but the significance regarding the system boundaries is low (0.6% UBP, 1.7% Eco-indicator) due to dominating VOC-emissions. The use of material flow analyses in LCA is possible for agricultural production, especially seamless connection is provided between the different production steps. Also parameterisation is easy so that the defining of scenarios is efficient and transparent.     

Cellobiose dehydrogenase-dependent biodegradation of polyacrylate polymers by Phanerochaete chrysosporium

When Phanerochaete chrysosporium was cultured using conditions which promote the expression of cellobiose dehydrogenase (CDH), but not the ligninolytic peroxidases, the fungus effectively solubilized and mineralized an insoluble, crosslinked polyacrylate and an insoluble polyacrylate/polyacrylamide copolymer. Addition of iron to the cultures increased CDH activity in the cultures and the rate and extent of solubilization and mineralization of both polymers. Solubilization of both polymers was observed when incubated with purified CDH, ferric iron and hydrogen peroxide.