Forecasting peak daily ozone levels: part 2--A regression with time series errors model having a principal component trigger to forecast 1999 and 2002 ozone levels

A modified time series approach, a Box-Jenkins regression with time series errors (RTSE) model plus a principal component (PC) trigger, has been developed to forecast peak daily 1-hr ozone (O3) in real time at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee North (UWM-N) during 1999 and 2002. The PC trigger acts as a predictor variable in the RTSE model. It tries to answer the question: will the next day be a possible high O3 day? To answer this question, three PC trigger rules were developed: (1) Hi-Low Checklist, (2) Discriminant Function Approach I, and (3) Discriminant Function Approach II. Also, a pure RTSE model without including the PC trigger and a persistence approach were tested for comparison. The RTSE model with DFA I successfully forecast the only two 1-hr federal exceedances (124 ppb), one in 1999 and one in 2002. In terms of the O3 100-ppb exceedances, 60-80% of the incorrect forecasts occurred with incorrect PC decisions. A few others may have been caused by unexpected O3-weather relations. When the three approaches used UWM-N data to forecast a 100-ppb exceedance somewhere in the Milwaukee, WI, metropolitan area, their performance was dramatically improved: the false alarm rate was reduced from 0.89 to 0.44, and the probability of detection was increased from 0.71 to 0.88.     

Aquatic microcosm assessment of the effects of tylosin on Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum spicatum

Tylosin is a macrolide antibiotic commonly used for therapeutic treatment and prophylaxis in livestock. As part of a larger ecotoxicological study, the potential phytotoxic effects of tylosin on the rooted macrophyte Myriophyllum spicatum and the floating macrophyte Lemna gibba were assessed under semi-field conditions using 15 12 000-L microcosms. Concentrations of 0, 10, 30, 300 microg/L (n = 3), and 600, 1000, and 3000 microg/L (n = 1) were evaluated as part of separate ANOVA and regression analyses over an exposure period of 35 days. Fate of tylosin was monitored over time in the highest three treatments, where dissipation followed pseudo-first order kinetics with associated half-lives ranging from 9 to 10 days. For both M. spicatum and L. gibba, tylosin was found to cause no biologically significant changes to any endpoint assessed compared to controls at a Type I error rate of 0.1. However, subsequent power analyses revealed that there was generally insufficient power to declare that there were no significant differences at a Type II error rate of 0.2. Conclusions concerning biologically significant impacts were therefore further assessed based on other statistical criteria including comparisons of percent differences between replicated treatments and controls, minimum significant and minimum detectable differences, and coefficients of variation. Based on these criteria, at an ecological effect size of >20% change, tylosin was concluded to elicit no biologically or ecologically significant toxicity to M. spicatum or L. gibba. A hazard quotient assessment indicated that tylosin poses little risk to either species of macrophyte, with an HQ value calculated to be nearly three orders of magnitude below 1 (0.002).     

Effects of forest management on soil carbon: results of some long-term resampling studies

The effects of harvest intensity (sawlog, SAW; whole tree, WTH; and complete tree, CTH) on biomass and soil C were studied in four forested sites in the southeastern US (mixed deciduous forests at Oak Ridge, TN and Coweeta, NC; Pinus taeda at Clemson, SC: and P. eliottii at Bradford, FL). In general, harvesting had no lasting effects on soil C. However, intensive temporal sampling at the NC and SC sites revealed short-term changes in soil C during the first few years after harvesting, and large, long-term increases in soil C were noted at the TN site in all treatments. Thus, changes in soil C were found even though lasting effects of harvest treatment were not. There were substantial differences in growth and biomass C responses to harvest treatments among sites. At the TN site, there were no differences in biomass at 15 years after harvest. At the SC site, greater biomass was found in the SAW than in the WTH treatment 16 years after harvest, and this effect is attributed to be due to both the N left on site in foliar residues and to the enhancement of soil physical and chemical properties by residues. At the FL site, greater biomass was found in the CTH than in the WTH treatment 15 years after harvest, and this effect is attributed to be due to differences in understory competition. Biomass data were not reported for NC. The effects of harvest treatment on ecosystem C are expected to magnify over time at the SC and FL sites as live biomass increases, whereas the current differences in ecosystem C at the TN site (which are due to the presence of undecomposed residues) are expected to lessen with time.     

Organochlorine contamination in shorebirds from Washington state and the significance for their falcon predators

Arctic-breeding shorebirds collected in western Washington state during winter and spring, and a comparative sample collected in coastal California during the winter were analyzed for organochlorine contaminants to determine the potential impact of these residues on populations of peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and merlins (F. columbarius) which prey upon shorebirds in western Washington. Dunlins (Calidris alpina), an important winter prey for falcons in western Washington, were collected between 1975 and 1981. During winter 1980–81, dunlins carried low organochlorine residues; DDE levels ranged from 0.01 to 1.2 ppm, and PCB levels ranged from 0.02 to 0.82 ppm (wet weight). Levels of other organochlorine contaminants (HCB, Chlordane compounds, Dieldrin, and Heptachlor Epoxide), analyzed in a subsample of dunlins, were consistently lower than DDE and PCB levels, and ranged from 0.001 to 0.22 ppm (wet weight). Dunlins in western Washington did not significantly increase their DDE or PCB burdens over the 1980–81 winter. A decline in DDE residues between 1978 and 1981 was noted, and declines in PCB residues from both 1975 and 1978 to 1980–81 were noted. Residues in other wintering shorebirds from western Washington were similar. Wintering sanderlings (Calidris alba) from California, revealed much higher DDE contamination than in Washington (up to 32 ppm, wet weight). Spring migrant shorebirds in western Washington contained both low and very high DDE residues (up to 417 ppm, wet weight). There is evidence suggesting these high DDE concentrations are accumulated along the Pacific coast of North America.     

Application of SMR to Modeling Watersheds in the Catskill Mountains

Very few hydrological models commonly used in watershed management are appropriate for simulating the saturation excess runoff. The Soil Moisture Routing model (SMR) was developed specifically to predict saturation excess runoff from variable source areas, especially for areas where shallow interflow controls saturation. A recent version of SMR was applied to two rural catchments in the Catskill Mountains to evaluate its ability to simulate the hydrology of these systems. Only readily available meteorological, topographical, and landuse information from published literature and governmental agencies was used. Measured and predicted streamflows showed relatively good agreement; the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency for the two watersheds were R ²=72% and R ²=63%. Distributed soil moisture contents and the locations of hydrologically sensitive areas were also predicted well.     

Effective monitoring of pollution by toxic trace elements in waters,sediment and biota of the Derwent River Estuary,Tasmania, through long-term retention of analytical facilities

This study considers the effectiveness of the monitoring of toxic trace elements in various media from a polluted river estuary over a period of 15 years, using the same analytical techniques, facilities and, in some cases, the same operators. It shows that reliable comparisons can be made for monitoring waters, sediment and biota from the Derwent River Estuary between 1975 data and that from 1990. Rigorous studies were undertaken before and during 1975 to ensure that reliable data was achieved at that time. Such studies are reviewed and included the evaluation of digestion techniques for a range of heavy metals, specific attention to the reliability of mercury determination in sediments between laboratories, a comparison of direct calibration and standard addition techniques for metals in seawater, recoveries of an organomercury compound from fish, and sources of error arising from sample preparation of biota for subsequent metal analysis. Comparative results for standard reference materials in both 1975 and 1990 show good agreement and are considered reliable except for lead at low concentrations. The long-term retention of the analytical facilities permits a direct comparison of data from 2 monitoring programmes over the space of 15 years.     

Monitoring dissolved organic carbon in surface and drinking waters

The presence of natural organic matter (NOM) strongly impacts drinking water treatment, water quality, and water behavior during distribution. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were determined daily over a 22 month period in river water before and after conventional drinking water treatment using an on-line total organic carbon (TOC) analyzer. Quantitative and qualitative variations in organic matter were related to precipitation and runoff, seasons and operating conditions. Following a rainfall event, DOC levels could increase by 3.5 fold over baseflow concentrations, while color, UV absorbance values and turbidity increased by a factor of 8, 12 and 300, respectively. Treated water DOC levels were closely related to the source water quality, with an average organic matter removal of 42% after treatment.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls in small mammals from contaminated landfill sites

PCBs in small mammals living in a contaminated landfill site varied in both concentration and congener composition, reflecting both the feeding strategy of each species and the chlorination of the congeners. Body concentrations of SigmaPCB on a 1:1:1 Arochlor (1242:1254:1260) basis gave a rank order of Sorex araneus > Apodemus sylvaticus > Microtus agrestis. Comparisons with data for other PCB-contaminated sites suggest that the SigmaPCB values in S. araneus from the landfill site may be of sufficient magnitude to inhibit reproductive capability and to cause other major organ dysfunction. There were also inter-specific differences in the whole body concentrations of the individually quantified congeners. For S. araneus, the rank order of concentrations of the selected ICES 7 marker PCB congeners was: No. 153>138>180>118>28>101>52. In M. agrestis the rank order was: No. 28>118>153>138>180, 52>101. The congener order for A. sylvaticus differed from both S. araneus and M. agrestis, but was more similar to the latter, being: No. 153>138>118>180>28>52, 101. The contribution of the different congeners to SigmaPCB in the mammals reflects the degree of chlorination of different congeners but varies with feeding strategy of the species. In the insectivorous S. araneus, heavily chlorinated congeners (Nos 153, 138 and 180) are most abundant, whereas the herbivore, M. agrestis showed congeners Nos 28 and 118 to be present in the highest amounts, whilst the equivalent pattern for the more omnivorous A. sylvaticus was intermediate between S. araneus and M. agrestis. The high concentrations of PCBs in S. araneus relative to the other species, suggests that it may serve as a useful biomarker of terrestrial environmental pollution by organochlorines.     

Microbiological and chemical characteristics of an acidic stream draining a disused copper mine

Water samples draining a disused copper mine (Parys Mountain) in Anglesey, North Wales, were analysed for distribution of acidophilic bacteria (iron oxidising and heterotrophic) and for changes in physicochemical composition along the length of the drainage stream. Ten samples were taken at regular distance intervals along a 1 km stretch from the source of the acid mine drainage. The stream remained highly acidic (pH < 2.8) although a slight decrease (0.6 pH unit) in acidity with distance from source was observed. Concentrations of most metals measured decreased with distance along the length of the stream, although some showed a gradual increase and others peaked at c. 200 m from source. Most dissolved iron was in the ferrous form in the upper reaches of the stream, but ferric iron became increasingly dominant downstream as a result of microbial oxidation. Although concentrations of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus were low in the acid mine drainage, they were not limiting rates of bacterial iron oxidation, which appeared to be limited more by temperature. The iron oxidising bacteria Thiobacillus ferrooxidans and Leptospirillum ferrooxidans were both isolated from all sampling sites, although their relative abundances varied; L. ferrooxidans accounted for 57% of all iron oxidising isolates. Numbers of iron oxidising bacteria decreased with distance from drainage source, in contrast to those of acidophilic heterotrophic bacteria which increased. The diversity of heterotrophic isolates also increased with distance. The relationship between the chemistry and microbiology of the stream is discussed.     

Aldehyde and monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbon mixing ratios at an urban site in Las Vegas, Nevada

Oxidation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) in air, of significance due to, for example, the potential for O3 formation, is believed to be initiated by OH attack on the ring (addition) or on the alkyl side chain (H abstraction). A series of ring-breaking reactions follows, with major products predicted to be alpha-dicarbonyls, simple aldehydes, and organic acids. To test this prediction, ambient air mixing ratios of aldehydes (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzaldehyde, glyoxal, and pyruvaldehyde), along with some supporting BTEX data, were measured at an urban site in Las Vegas, NV. Samples were collected on sorbents and determined by chromatographic methods; mixing ratios were compared to ambient levels of CO, O3, and NOx. A meteorological analysis (temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) was also included. Statistically significant relationships were noted among the BTEX hydrocarbons (HCs) and among the photochemically derived species (e.g., O3, NO2, and some of the aldehydes), although there was seasonal variation. The observations are consistent with a common primary source (i.e., vehicular exhaust or fuel evaporation) for the BTEX compounds and a common secondary source (e.g., OH attack) for glyoxal and pyruvaldehyde.