A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade

Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water, land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption. We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better information to meat consumers.

Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending public–private partnerships

In developed countries, public–private partnerships involving insurance companies and governments often provide security against the human and economic losses of disasters. These partnerships, however, are neither available nor affordable in most highly exposed developing countries. In this paper we examine recent innovations in financial risk management that extend traditional public–private partnerships to include NGOs, international financial institutions and other donors. Importantly, these partnerships provide secure financial arrangements to low-income communities before disasters strike and thus relieve the uncertainty and anxiety of depending on ad hoc post-disaster aid for recovery and even survival. We examine three examples of extended partnerships: the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool; the Andhra Pradesh microinsurance program and an index-based weather derivative for farmers facing drought in Malawi.     

Business recovery: an assessment framework

This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post‐disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Hiding in Plain Sight? It’s Time to Investigate Other Possible Transmission Routes for Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) in Developed Countries

Historically in developed countries, reported hepatitis E cases were typically travellers returning from countries where hepatitis E virus (HEV) is endemic, but now there are increasing numbers of non-travel-related (“autochthonous”) cases being reported. Data for HEV in New Zealand remain limited and the transmission routes unproven. We critically reviewed the scientific evidence supporting HEV transmission routes in other developed countries to inform how people in New Zealand may be exposed to this virus. A substantial body of indirect evidence shows domesticated pigs are a source of zoonotic human HEV infection, but there is an information bias towards this established reservoir. The increasing range of animals in which HEV has been detected makes it important to consider other possible animal reservoirs of HEV genotypes that can or could infect humans. Foodborne transmission of HEV from swine and deer products has been proven, and a large body of indirect evidence (e.g. food surveys, epidemiological studies and phylogenetic analyses) support pig products as vehicles of HEV infection. Scarce data from other foods suggest we are neglecting other potential sources of foodborne HEV infection. Moreover, other transmission routes are scarcely investigated in developed countries; the role of infected food handlers, person-to-person transmission via the faecal–oral route, and waterborne transmission from recreational contact or drinking untreated or inadequately treated water. People have become symptomatic after receiving transfusions of HEV-contaminated blood, but it is unclear how important this is in the overall hepatitis E disease burden. There is need for broader research efforts to support establishing risk-based controls.     

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p?<?0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42% of stands; however, 77% of stands were within ±1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p?<?0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85% of all stands) were not significant (p?=?0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R ²?=?0.92, p?<?0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping.